Photo: Brace Hemmelgarn, USA Today Sports

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) is playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week. With the Holiday week, we are going to do things just a little bit differently. We are going to give our two favorite Thanksgiving Day props on Thursday morning and then add the top three weekend plays on Friday.

Week 11 Review

Last Week: -1

Season Total: +5

The 4X touchdown props again treated us well. On our other three picks, we were only able to hit on one of the two sides.

Week 11 Picks

5: Split Thursday Ticket: (-1) We were right on Matt Ryan, who went way under his passing projection but shouldn’t have split the ticket. Mac Jones came up a bit short of hitting his over since this game was not competitive enough to force him to throw.

4: KC-Dallas Shootout: (-1) We needed this game to be higher scoring than expected to hit our 4X. Instead, it was an outlier game in the other direction. It is tough to pick three players to combine for more than 2.5 touchdowns if only two touchdowns are scored total in the game.

3: LV-Cin Mismatches: (-1) We only hit half of this one. JaMarr Chase scored 13.0 points so he did not get there (needed 17.5). Darren Waller’s 18.6 were enough (only needed 15.5).

2: GB-Min Concentration: (+3) This one worked out roughly as expected between two division rivals who have had a tough time stopping each other’s offense in recent meetings. It helps that both teams' touchdowns are concentrated heavily amongst a few star players. Davante Adams scored twice (his third-straight game against the Vikings with multiple touchdowns). Dalvin Cook also scored.

1: MNF More (-1) We again hit just half on this one. Brady threw for more than his 299.5 yard total. Despite a perfect game script for some garbage time yardage accumulation and 38 passing attempts, Daniel Jones came up well short of his 230.5 total.

5: Zeke Eats

More than 2.5 combined touchdowns between Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb (or Michael Gallup if Lamb is out), and Hunter Renfrow

• This Thanksgiving Day matchup fits the profile of games we have been successfully targeting. It is projected to be high scoring (51.5) total and features a star running back with realistic multiple-touchdown upside.
• We have hit on these 4X props at a rate well over 25% largely due to honing in on one player who has a great shot at scoring multiple touchdowns. If that player gets a pair of scores, we simply need either of our other two options to score.
• The anchor of this prop is Ezekiel Elliott. Our Footballguys Consensus projections are .94 touchdowns, which is the fourth-highest among all skill position players in Week 12.
• The matchup is a sweet one for Elliott. The Raiders are giving up 132.1 rushing yards per game on the season (fourth-most in the NFL). Their performance has been especially bad against the run in recent weeks. Just last week, Joe Mixon put up 123 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. The week before, Darrel Williams racked up 144 yards and a score.
• Elliott is averaging 0.8 touchdowns per game this season, which is right in line with his career average of 0.79. Elliott and the Cowboys offense over the years have been much more efficient with Tyron Smith on the field and regularly struggled in his absence. Smith is cleared to get back out there on Sunday.

Ezekiel Elliott "can play through" knee injury, wants Cowboys to "lock back in" on run game vs. Raidershttps://t.co/9VCZoKqgcK pic.twitter.com/fLyZYHA1QA

— Around The NFL (@AroundTheNFL) November 24, 2021

• Sometimes you have to go with your gut? Can’t you just picture Elliott running and jumping into the giant Salvation Army bucket?

Country music singer @lukecombs performing at halftime of tomorrow’s Cowboys-Raiders game. He knows what’s up with Zeke and the Salvation Army red kettle pic.twitter.com/fuvTyRMpa2

— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) November 24, 2021

• As of Thursday morning, it is not 100% clear if CeeDee Lamb will be cleared from the concussion protocol in time to suit up. If he is available to play, lock him into your lineups here. He would be the clear WR1 here with Amari Cooper out against a mediocre Raiders defense.
• If Lamb is out, the recommendation is to roster Michael Gallup in his stead. Gallup would be the clear top option in the Dallas passing game for an offense projected to score 29.5 points. You can wait up until kickoff to decide on these touchdown props since the lines never change.
• Elliott and the Cowboys WR1 are the main attraction here but we have to include a Raider amongst our three players. There are three obvious candidates: Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow. Any are reasonable choices, so if you have a lean, trust your gut.
• My gut is telling me this is Renfrow’s week. Jacobs has looked sluggish in recent weeks and Waller has not scored since Week 3. Meanwhile, Renfrow has seen his snap share increase in recent weeks without Henry Ruggs in the mix. He has averaged 7.5 targets per game over the last four weeks and scored a pair of touchdowns over that stretch.

4: Bills dominate on Thursday night

Josh Allen MORE than 265.5 yards

Trevor Siemian LESS than 195.5 yards

• This is a get right spot for the Bills who should be able to suffocate the Saints battered offensive unit and ride the arm of Josh Allen to a Thursday night victory.
• Josh Allen has averaged 282.4 passing yards per game over the last two seasons. This season alone, he has three games with 350+ passing yards. We have a strong consensus amongst the Footballguys projection crew in favor of Allen here. Sigmund Bloom (299 yards), Justin Freeman (295 yards), Maurile Tremblay (287 yards) and Jason Wood (275 yards) all like Allen on this prop, with a couple of the guys projecting major value on the Allen over.
• While Allen has not been as productive in recent weeks as we have come to expect, this is a perfect spot to get back on track. The Bills will be playing indoors for the first time all season. For a team that has dealt with various weather conditions on a regular basis over the past month, the fast track and ideal conditions of the Ceasars Superdome should be a welcome sight.

May we receive this Josh Allen tomorrow night🤞🤞🤞 pic.twitter.com/zpJX8Hsmbz

— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) November 25, 2021

• Trevor Siemian has been solid given the surrounding injuries but this is an especially tough spot for him. The Bills have the top-ranked pass defense (DVOA) in the entire NFL.
• There is also the unknown variable of Taysom Hill’s usage lurking in the background. As a 6.5-point home underdog, the Saints may have to scheme up some wrinkles to put points on the board and try to pull off the upset. If Hill has even a slightly expanded role, it would make it more difficult for Siemian to put up solid passing numbers.

Full week of practice for Taysom Hill, while Alvin Kamara is out and Mark Ingram likely out after another DNP.

Hill is still as high as +500 for an anytime TD tomorrow and you'd be wise to scoop that up now before it's half the price tomorrow, at best.

— Alex Moretto (@alexjmoretto) November 24, 2021

3: Bengals Game TDs

Joe Mixon, JaMarr Chase, and Najee Harris more than 2.5 combined touchdowns

• Shooting for the 4X with Mixon, Chase, and the running back going up against the Bengals defense has been one of our most consistently successful plays this season. The Bengals touchdowns are relatively concentrated on offense. Cincinnati also tends to give up at least one touchdown to most opposing backs with a pulse.
• The Chase-Mixon duo has combined for 19 touchdowns in nine games. One of the two have scored in every single Bengals game.
• In 70% of Bengals games the duo has combined for at least two touchdowns.
• In 20% of the Bengals games, the duo hit the over on 2.5 touchdowns all by themselves.
• Mixon has scored at least one touchdown in seven straight games.
• If “poking the bear” is a thing, then Mike Tomlin may have done so when talking about how teams are now able to take away deep passes from the Burrow-Chase pairing now that they have some film to go on.

Weeks 1-7, #Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase had 8 rec for 354 yds on deep passes. Has 0 deep catches since. #Steelers' Mike Tomlin says that's "plays on tape." Talent recognized, adjustments made: "Seems like there's a young talented WO that takes the league by storm in Sept every year"

— Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) November 23, 2021

• The Steelers allowed four touchdowns to Chargers running back Austin Ekeler last week.
• Najee Harris has scored a touchdown in 70% of his career starts.
• He was held out of the end zone in the prior meeting against the Bengals but his workload was absurd. He had 14 carries and 14 receptions on 19(!) targets. While Harris may not ask for more red zone touches, expect them to start coming in bunches.

Asked Najee Harris if he would like to get more touches in goal-to-go situations

I said when he doesn't get touches, we end up asking Tomlin about it.

Najee: "What's he say?"

Me: "Nothing much, as usual."

Najee: "Well, I've got nothing else to say either then."

Quick learner

— Will Graves (@WillGravesAP) November 26, 2021

2: Points in Indy

Leonard Fournette MORE than 15.5 fantasy points

Michael Pittman MORE than 15.5 fantasy points

• Monkey Knife Fight sometimes offers odds boosts like this one, where we get an opportunity to 4X on a simple two-way parlay where we can take advantage of correlation to find +EV opportunities.
• In this case, there are many game scripts where both Fournette and Pittman hitting for more than 15.5 would be probable. For example, if Tampa Bay (3-point road favorites) jumps out to an early lead and goes relatively run heavy, Fournette would be expected to have a bigger rushing game and a higher touchdown expectation. In that game script, Indianapolis would be forced more pass heavy where they would need to lean on their top passing-game weapon.
• While Indianapolis would love to just run the ball with Jonathan Taylor, Tampa Bay and coordinator Todd Bowles will be intent on not letting that happen. With Vita Vea anchoring the interior defensive line, this is one of the few defensive fronts in the league that the Colts offensive line will not be able to push around. Expect more passing attempts from Carson Wentz.
• Leonard Fournette has been getting massive usage as a pass catcher of late. We know how Tom Brady loves to throw to his running backs, going all the way back to the days when a young Kevin Faulk was catching 50 passes. Fournette seems to be developing that rapport with Brady. He has caught 14-of-15 targets over the last two weeks.

This man Tom Brady told Leonard Fournette the coverage as he was getting into his drop 🐐 pic.twitter.com/MoQkNZzHad

— Footballism™ (@FootbaIIism) November 26, 2021

• Fournette has five-plus receptions in 70% of the Buccaneers games this season. In Monkey Knife Fight’s full-PPR scoring, he will have a great shot at scoring more than 15.5 fantasy points if he can again haul in at least five receptions.
• Michael Pittman is setup for a big game if this one goes according to script. In the Colts last four losses this season, Pittman was targeted 46 times (11.5 per game).
• On the season, he is averaging nearly twice as many targets in losses (10.0) as he is in wins (5.2).

*The process was right, he cried out as his family left*

At the risk of being 100% wrong on Michael Pittman for second straight week: sure seems like another spot vs. one of NFL's only teams with good enough run-D and offensive firepower to get IND out of complete run-first mode

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 24, 2021

• Buccaneers opponents are averaging 39.3 passing attempts per game on the season, third-most in the NFL.

1: Scary Fades (Again)

Matthew Stafford LESS than 275.5 passing yards

Aaron Rodgers LESS than 270.5 passing yards

• We are getting a strong correlation play by going in the same direction on these two veteran quarterbacks. The play here is a belief this game will be lower-scoring than originally expected.
• The line on this game opened at 50 points and has since dropped three points to 47 with sharp money coming in on the under. This makes for a number of reasons, which we will touch on.
• First, is the to injury to Aaron Rodgers. He is playing through a fractured toe. Although it did not hamper him against the Vikings, it could prove problematic on the frozen tundra in Green Bay in a game where the temperature is expected to be right around freezing.
• The weather may play a significant role. Winds of 15-to-20 miles per hour are being forecasted as of Friday afternoon. This is enough to impact passing conditions.

Our kind of weather. 🌨️#GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/rsQYrudwEF

— Green Bay Packers (@packers) November 25, 2021

• Both teams are playing without some top passing-game weapons. The Rams do not seem to have fully adjusted to life without Robert Woods. Meanwhile, the Packers will be without three of their top passing-game weapons, as well.
• Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry is fresh off of spending four seasons as an assistant under Sean McVay with the Rams and is intimately familiar with the offensive concepts he will be facing.
• In nine career games in Green Bay, Stafford has thrown for more than 270 yards just twice.