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Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest-growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less. Since each combination (two or more players) is playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.
In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week. With the Holiday week, we are going to do things just a little bit differently. We are going to give our two favorite Thanksgiving Day props on Thursday morning and then add the top three weekend plays on Friday.
Week 11 Review
Last Week: -1
Season Total: +5
The 4X touchdown props again treated us well. On our other three picks, we were only able to hit on one of the two sides.
Week 11 Picks
5: Split Thursday Ticket: (-1) We were right on Matt Ryan, who went way under his passing projection but shouldn’t have split the ticket. Mac Jones came up a bit short of hitting his over since this game was not competitive enough to force him to throw.
4: KC-Dallas Shootout: (-1) We needed this game to be higher scoring than expected to hit our 4X. Instead, it was an outlier game in the other direction. It is tough to pick three players to combine for more than 2.5 touchdowns if only two touchdowns are scored total in the game.
2: GB-Min Concentration: (+3) This one worked out roughly as expected between two division rivals who have had a tough time stopping each other’s offense in recent meetings. It helps that both teams' touchdowns are concentrated heavily amongst a few star players. Davante Adams scored twice (his third-straight game against the Vikings with multiple touchdowns). Dalvin Cook also scored.
1: MNF More (-1) We again hit just half on this one. Brady threw for more than his 299.5 yard total. Despite a perfect game script for some garbage time yardage accumulation and 38 passing attempts, Daniel Jones came up well short of his 230.5 total.
5: Zeke Eats
- This Thanksgiving Day matchup fits the profile of games we have been successfully targeting. It is projected to be high scoring (51.5) total and features a star running back with realistic multiple-touchdown upside.
- We have hit on these 4X props at a rate well over 25% largely due to honing in on one player who has a great shot at scoring multiple touchdowns. If that player gets a pair of scores, we simply need either of our other two options to score.
- The anchor of this prop is Ezekiel Elliott. Our Footballguys Consensus projections are .94 touchdowns, which is the fourth-highest among all skill position players in Week 12.
- The matchup is a sweet one for Elliott. The Raiders are giving up 132.1 rushing yards per game on the season (fourth-most in the NFL). Their performance has been especially bad against the run in recent weeks. Just last week, Joe Mixon put up 123 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. The week before, Darrel Williams racked up 144 yards and a score.
- Elliott is averaging 0.8 touchdowns per game this season, which is right in line with his career average of 0.79. Elliott and the Cowboys offense over the years have been much more efficient with Tyron Smith on the field and regularly struggled in his absence. Smith is cleared to get back out there on Sunday.
- Sometimes you have to go with your gut? Can’t you just picture Elliott running and jumping into the giant Salvation Army bucket?
- As of Thursday morning, it is not 100% clear if CeeDee Lamb will be cleared from the concussion protocol in time to suit up. If he is available to play, lock him into your lineups here. He would be the clear WR1 here with Amari Cooper out against a mediocre Raiders defense.
- If Lamb is out, the recommendation is to roster Michael Gallup in his stead. Gallup would be the clear top option in the Dallas passing game for an offense projected to score 29.5 points. You can wait up until kickoff to decide on these touchdown props since the lines never change.
- Elliott and the Cowboys WR1 are the main attraction here but we have to include a Raider amongst our three players. There are three obvious candidates: Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow. Any are reasonable choices, so if you have a lean, trust your gut.
- My gut is telling me this is Renfrow’s week. Jacobs has looked sluggish in recent weeks and Waller has not scored since Week 3. Meanwhile, Renfrow has seen his snap share increase in recent weeks without Henry Ruggs III in the mix. He has averaged 7.5 targets per game over the last four weeks and scored a pair of touchdowns over that stretch.
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