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Welcome to Regression Alert, your weekly guide to using regression to predict the future with uncanny accuracy.
For those who are new to the feature, here's the deal: every week, I dive into the topic of regression to the mean. Sometimes I'll explain what it really is, why you hear so much about it, and how you can harness its power for yourself. Sometimes I'll give some practical examples of regression at work.
In weeks where I'm giving practical examples, I will select a metric to focus on. I'll rank all players in the league according to that metric, and separate the top players into Group A and the bottom players into Group B. I will verify that the players in Group A have outscored the players in Group B to that point in the season. And then I will predict that, by the magic of regression, Group B will outscore Group A going forward.
Crucially, I don't get to pick my samples (other than choosing which metric to focus on). If the metric I'm focusing on is touchdown rate, and Christian McCaffrey is one of the high outliers in touchdown rate, then Christian McCaffrey goes into Group A and may the fantasy gods show mercy on my predictions.
Most importantly, because predictions mean nothing without accountability, I track the results of my predictions over the course of the season and highlight when they prove correct and also when they prove incorrect. Here's a list of my predictions from 2020 and their final results. Here's the same list from 2019 and their final results, here's the list from 2018, and here's the list from 2017. Over four seasons, I have made 30 specific predictions and 24 of them have proven correct, a hit rate of 80%.
In Week 2, I broke down what regression to the mean really is, what causes it, how we can benefit from it, and what the guiding philosophy of this column would be. No specific prediction was made.
In Week 3, I dove into the reasons why yards per carry is almost entirely noise, shared some research to that effect, and predicted that the sample of backs with lots of carries but a poor per-carry average would outrush the sample with fewer carries but more yards per carry.
In Week 4, I talked about yard-to-touchdown ratios and why they were the most powerful regression target in football that absolutely no one talks about, then predicted that touchdowns were going to follow yards going forward (but the yards wouldn't follow back).
In Week 5, we looked at ten years worth of data to see whether early-season results better predicted rest-of-year performance than preseason ADP and we found that, while the exact details fluctuated from year to year, overall they did not. No specific prediction was made.
In Week 6, I taught a quick trick to tell how well a new statistic actually measures what you think it measures. No specific prediction was made.
In Week 7, I went over the process of finding a good statistic for regression and used team rushing vs. passing touchdowns as an example.
In Week 8, I talked about how interceptions were an unstable statistic for quarterbacks, but also for defenses.
|Statistic for regression||Performance before prediction||Performance since prediction||Weeks remaining|
|Yards per Carry||Group A had 10% more rushing yards per game||Group B has 4% more rushing yards per game||None (Win!)|
|Yards per Touchdown||Group A scored 9% more fantasy points per game||Group B scored 13% more fantasy points per game||None (Win!)|
|Passing vs. Rushing TDs||Group A scored 42% more RUSHING TDs||Group A is scoring 71% more PASSING TDs||2|
|Defensive Interceptions||Group A had 33% more interceptions||Group B has 30% more interceptions||3|
News that Derrick Henry will likely miss the rest of the season puts a damper on our prediction since the whole point of our passing vs. rushing touchdown prediction was betting against Derrick Henry continuing his absurd touchdown pace. But our prediction already paid off regardless of what happens the rest of the way with Tennessee. Two weeks ago, the Titans had scored 12 rushing touchdowns against just 6 passing touchdowns, but in the two weeks since they've scored 5 passing touchdowns and just 1 rushing touchdown (which came from Ryan Tannehill, anyway). In fact, most of the edge in passing touchdowns comes from the Titans; the rest of the sample combined has 7 passing touchdowns against 6 rushing touchdowns. Demonstrating that even the most dominant runner in the NFL isn't immune to the forces of regression.
As for our interception prediction, in the first week, our high-interception teams kept a higher interception rate than our low-interception teams, but since both groups regressed toward league average our low-interception teams won on total volume. Group A saw its interceptions per game fall from 1.29 to 1.00 while Group B's rose from 0.50 to 0.76.
Ja'Marr Chase and the First Two Rules of Regression to the Mean
Ja'Marr Chase is going to regress.
I know this because the first rule of regression to the mean is that everyone regresses to the mean. Ja'Marr Chase is coming off arguably the best first 8 games of any rookie in history, but his underlying metrics suggest he's been getting a bit lucky and performing over his head. He's currently 5th in fantasy points per game but just 27th in expected fantasy points per game, which is how many points a typical player would score given the same workload.
Leaders in xFP/g: pic.twitter.com/Cq1Gwtei1G— Cooper Adams (@Cooper_DFF) November 2, 2021
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