The Sharp Report
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris' bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players' lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed, and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry's smartest decision-makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report's goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in bold black font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed to bold black font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders' super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players' names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
Sharp Core
Throughout the season, The Sharp Report will analyze DraftKings lineups utilized by the best DFS players in the industry, which will teach valuable lessons to develop a sound lineup-building process throughout the season. The lessons learned will lead directly to a Sharp Core of players-- three players that should cash-game lineups should be built around on the DraftKings main slate of games each week. This article will be updated on Thursday and Friday evenings this season, as the first feature of the Sharp Core will be published on Wednesday when the article is first posted. Then, as more information becomes available later in the week, the final two players featured in the Sharp Core will be listed and analyzed on Thursday and Friday night, respectively.
Sharp Core Feature #1: Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara headlines this season's first edition of The Sharp Report thanks to some favorable team-level decisions surrounding the superstar running back at the end of the preseason. This offseason, the leading threats to Kamara's fantasy value were the potential of Taysom Hill, a running quarterback, starting under-center for the Saints, and the presence of Latavius Murray, a proven and capable backup, on the roster to vulture carries and touchdowns from Kamara. Both of these situations played out favorably for Alvin Kamara, as Jameis Winston won the starting quarterback job, and Latavius Murray was cut earlier this week.
With Winston under-center, the threat of the quarterback cutting into Kamara's rushing volume drops precipitously. Additionally, Kamara's projected target share increases with Winston at quarterback compared to the volume projected with Hill at the helm.
Next, without Latavius Murray, Tony Jones, a second-year running back out of Notre Dame, will be the primary backup to Alvin Kamara. Jones, Jr. is a one-dimensional runner that provides almost no value in the passing game. In the long-term, Jones, Jr. may prove to be a serviceable option to spell a team's number-one runner. Still, right now, the talent gap between him and Kamara is too extreme to warrant playing time similar to what Latavius Murray would have commanded.
At $8,600, Alvin Kamara is the premier high-end running back on the Week 1 main slate of games on DraftKings. This weekend, the stars have aligned for a ceiling performance for Kamara against the Green Bay Packers, and he will certainly be a staple of sharp cash-game lineups.
Sharp Core Feature #2: Marquez Callaway
Marquez Callaway, much like Alvin Kamara, has seen his stock rise drastically throughout the preseason. Callaway entered training camp as the New Orleans Saints' presumed number-three wide receiver. However, after an impressive few weeks of practice, Callaway is slated to be the team's number-one pass-catcher while Michael Thomas is sidelined early in the season.
At just $3,400, it is impossible to ignore the salary relief that Marquez Callaway provides at wide receiver on this slate, especially when there are top-end options worth paying up for at running back and quarterback. Expect Callaway to command between 5 and 8 targets against the Green Bay Packers this weekend, which should provide ample opportunity for him to make good on his bottom-dollar price tag.
Sharp Core Feature #3: Kyle Pitts
On DraftKings, Kyle Pitts is priced at just $4,400, an astonishingly low mark for a player of his talent. Nominally, Pitts, a rookie out of the University of Florida, is a tight end. Realistically, his role will resemble that of a wide receiver.
It goes without saying that the number-four overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft is supremely talented. Kyle Pitts has a real chance at breaking some of the all-time receiving records for a rookie tight end, most of which are held by Mike Ditka. Expect Pitts to be peppered with targets this weekend against the Eagles, where he should have a great opportunity to kick-start an illustrious NFL career. At the modest price of just $4,400, Kyle Pitts is the premier tight end option on the slate, and cash-game lineups should be built around him on Sunday.
Be sure to check back throughout the week leading up to kickoff for additional analysis of key players that you should build cash-game lineups around in Week 1. Also, follow me on Twitter, where I will post when the article is updated and also answer any and all questions you may have here.
