Thursday Showdown Week 10

Photo: Douglas DeFelice, USA Today Sports

Disclaimer

These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options and in MME contests there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.

Game Strategy

Whenever Baltimore is on a Showdown slate, the first thing you have to consider is your stance on Lamar Jackson. Jackson is the type of player that can single handedly win a slate as he did back in Week 5 on the Showdowns against Indianapolis. This week is no different as the Ravens are 7.5 point favorites and projected to score 27 points in this game. The key thing will be taking Jackson as your captain is whether you can be able to afford a competitive lineup and can it be different enough given the lack of other options on this slate to give you the uniqueness upside that you may be looking for to not share the prize pool with a significant amount of people.

Captain Consideration:

1. Lamar Jackson
2. Marquise Brown
3. Preston Williams (Punt)
4. Jaylen Waddle
5. Tua Tagovailoa
6. Devonta Freeman
7. Mark Andrews
8. Jacoby Brissett

Baltimore Offense

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson- Great Captain/Flex

Lamar Jackson is going to be extremely popular this week as he should be due to the fact that he accounts for so much of the Ravens offense. The question is whether or not you should play him at the Captain position, or at the Flex position. The answer to that question sort of depends, as by the book Jackson even at his ridiculous price should be highly considered as a captain play. Jackson has topped 35 DraftKings points (52 Captain Points) in 3 of his 8 games this season, which if he does that it’s highly likely he will end up in the optimal lineup. Miami has struggled against the quarterback position this season as they have allowed the 5^th-most DraftKings points this season, and the only running quarterback they have faced was Josh Allen who had 55 yards and a rushing touchdown.

Taking a fade approach for Jackson is not the worst idea here either, as Jackson will be very popular this week and the thinking here is that those that take Jackson as the captain will have significant overlap due to the limited roster options with his $20,700 price point. By playing Jackson as a flex here, you vastly expand your options in this slate and you just have to brace yourself that Jackson does not have his breakout performances that we’ve seen in the past. `

Running Back

Devonta Freeman- Great Flex, Contrarian Captain

Devonta Freeman is slated to once again see the bulk of the carries this week with Latavius Murray still out with an ankle injury. Freeman has scored a touchdown in each of his last three games, and had 15 touches in his last game. Miami’s run defense has been better compared to the early season as they haven’t allowed a running back to top 60 yards since Week 6, but they’ve faced very poor rushing offenses in Houston, Buffalo, and Atlanta in that time. Freeman will likely need two touchdowns this week to pay off as a captain play but is a great pivot off the highly rostered Jackson as captain.

Wide Receiver

Marquise Brown- Great Captain/Flex

All signs are pointing upwards for Marquise Brown as he has been removed from the injury report after dealing with a back injury for the last several weeks, and from a performance standpoint he is trending upwards as he has three of his best games this season over his last four appearances. Outside of a difficult matchup against the Chargers, Brown has dominated the last four weeks as he is averaging 7.7 receptions for 107 yards and has three touchdowns in those three games. Brown should cause all sorts of problems for this Dolphins defense this week who have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to the wide receiver position this season. Brown is a great pivot off of Lamar Jackson this week as if those touchdowns that the Ravens score come through the air and Brown can catch two of them, he could give you a leg up against the Jackson Captains.

Mark Andrews- Great Flex/Low-End Captain

Mark Andrews is likely going to get a lot of love from the Primetime Showdown slate players (TNF/SNF/MNF) due to his performance back in Week 5 where he scored 40.7 DraftKings points. Since then, Mark Andrews has taken a back seat to Marquise Brown who has emerged as a breakout player as of late. Over his last three games since that Week 5 performance, Andrews is averaging just 4.3 receptions for 53 yards and just one touchdown.

Other Targets

Justin Tucker- Flex On a slate that has somewhat limited options, taking Justin Tucker in this one could be an interesting Flex play. At just $4,000, Tucker has scored 10 or more points in three of his last six games and makes for a nice pivot off of Lamar Jackson if the Ravens fail to score touchdowns in this game.

Sammy Watkins- Flex At just $5,600, Watkins could make for a nice play this week as he returns from a thigh injury. In his four games that he played in full, Watkins had 7 or more targets in each of them, and if he could find the end zone this week makes for a very strong play.

Miami Dolphins

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa- Low-End Captain or Great Flex Replace this with Jacoby Brissett. He's a low-end Captain/Good Flex play with slightly less upside than Tua

Tua is questionable this week, so keep an eye on his status, but it appears as if he is going to play tonight with a finger injury. Tagovailoa comes in at a fair price at $10,200 considering the favorable matchup against Baltimore this week. Baltimore has given up 297 yards passing on the season including 4 games in which they allowed 340 yards or more. Tua has shown upside prior to a difficult matchup against the Bills in which he got injured. In the two games prior to that matchup, Tua had 291 yards/4 touchdowns and 329 yards/2 touchdowns.

Running Back

Myles Gaskin- Fade

Myles Gaskin has seen his volume increase dramatically with the injury to Malcolm Brown, but he has not been able to do much with that volume. Last week in a favorable matchup against Houston, Gaskin had 20 carries, but was able to amount just 34 yards rushing. Gaskin’s value is primarily as a receiver, but is averaging just 3.8 yards-per-reception which is far too low. Baltimore’s run defense has been good this season except for a Dalvin Cook performance last week in which he ran for 110 yards against this defense. This is a defense that completely shut down Austin Ekeler who is a much better version of Myles Gaskin. At $9,400, the price is simply too high this week.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Jaylen Waddle- Decent Captain/Great Flex

Jaylen Waddle’s breakout season continues as he has become a target monster for the Dolphins. Waddle over his last four games is averaging 11.3 targets per game and catching 6.8 passes per game. The problem as a captain play is the upside for Waddle, as he is a very safe play with the full point-per-reception scoring, but likely does not have the upside that is needed unless he can score a touchdown which he has only done in two games this season.

Mike Gesicki- Decent Flex

After a two week hot streak in which Gesicki averaged 100 yards-per-game, he has come back to his baseline of a guy who will typically catch 3-5 passes and be between 40-60 yards as he has done in five of his games this season. Amazingly Gesicki has only scored two touchdowns on the year, which with only 6 red zone targets (he’s caught all 6), makes him a difficult upside play this week. Baltimore has had struggles against tight ends this year as they have allowed two tight ends to top 100 yards this season, but they were Kelce and Waller which is nothing to be ashamed of. Gesicki is not in that class, and while there is an outlier game from C.J. Uzomah in which he had 3 receptions for 91 yards and two touchdowns, this was built up based off of a 55-yard touchdown. Expect Gesicki to be in the 5 reception 50 yard range this week which as a flex is fine especially if he can find the end-zone, but does not have the upside needed for a captain this week.

Preston Williams- High-Risk Great Punt Captain or Flex

Preston Williams has missed the last two games due to disciplinary reasons but appears to be trending towards active this week. If he is active, it would be reasonable to think that he would be getting his full allotment of work this week especially with Mack Hollins’ struggles at the position. Williams comes with risk, but when he was playing his full allotment of snaps. Williams has had just one game in which he did not leave because of injury and in that game, he saw 74% of snaps. At minimum price he provides a significant number of unique builds that you can build around him, although expect him to be somewhat popular this week.