The Top 10 from Week 6

MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with an unsustainable process.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

As always, I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 6'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.

1. Jaylen Waddle's role prevents him from earning production efficiency on par with Ja'Marr Chase, but it has more to do with his surrounding talent. This doesn't include Tua Tagovailoa, who performed well in his return from injury. Waddle is a buy-low in re-draft and dynasty formats. Tagovailoa's value is all over the place due to rumors of a Deshaun Watson trade reigniting but he has played better than many think.
2. Khalil Herbert made a strong case against the Packers to earn the lead role ahead of injured Damien Williams. He's the superior zone runner. Continue to expect a split between Herbert and Williams where Herbert leads in carries, and Williams in receptions.
3. Rashod Bateman made his debut for the Ravens, illustrating his ability to get open and earn yardage after the catch. In theory, he could replace Sammy Watkins, but until that's stated, he might be a fantasy tease although still worth adding while Watkins is out.
4. A valuable skill fantasy GMs want to see from quarterbacks is the ability to identify pre-snap opportunities to run the football and check to the run. Carson Wentz and Kyler Murray indirectly accounted for 2 carries for 123 yards with their checks to Jonathan Taylor and Chase Edmonds. When weighing the merits of runners, knowing if the quarterback is skilled with checking to runs can be another positive layer of information.
5. Speaking of Taylor, Nyheim Hines may be the passing-down back, but the Colts are scheming Taylor into the passing game beyond the backfield and that's a notable development for his short-term and long-term production.
6. T.Y. Hilton's quadriceps may be a complication for the next 1-2 weeks, but he's a good buy-low for a Colts team on the rise.
7. Marvin Jones Jr, like Emmanuel Sanders, is a perennially underrated fantasy wide receiver when healthy. He's easily the best option on the Jaguars and worth your consideration as you consider midseason deals.
8. The Ravens' ground game beyond Lamar Jackson has been a difficult play for fantasy GMs but because of the potential fruit that this unit can still deliver, it's worth keeping you apprised. While still a muddled situation, it appears Ty'Son Williams is out of the mix and Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, and Le'Veon Bell have the most value in that order.
9. Robert Quinn, Randy Gregory, and Everson Griffen are all veterans with career valleys who are experiencing a renaissance for their teams and your IDP rosters.
10. Fresh Fish.
• The Chargers' defense could not defend the run thanks to a pair of missing linebackers.
• The Browns' replacement tackles could not generate a push or protect the passer with any reliability against the Cardinals.
• Despite the situation with the tackles and missing Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield made three huge mistakes and the tackle play wasn't a factor.
• The Texans' defensive front gave up over 100 yards to Jonathan Taylor despite the Colts missing a starting tackle and guard.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. Jaylen Waddle and Tua Tagovailoa Are Buy-Lows

Jaylen Waddle has been every bit as impressive as Ja'Marr Chase. For those who give greater weight to the vertical passing game, this statement will be difficult for them to reconcile. Although Waddle and Chase both have promising quarterback play — more on Tagovailoa in a moment, Waddle is operating without comparable surrounding talent at wide receiver.

Will Fuller V, the cicada of fantasy football, is once again underground. DeVante Parker has always been a great physical talent but he's not a complete receiver and he's also hurt. Preston Williams would be fighting for the fourth spot on the Bengals' depth chart. The result is that Waddle has become a faster Jarvis Landry in function for Miami — 24th in PPR value at his position, but 9th overall in receptions.

Compared inaccurately to Henry Ruggs III because fans and media can be guilty of logo scouting instead of examining the film and data scouting, Waddle makes plays in the quick game and the middle of the field that was not Ruggs' game last year. Ruggs doesn't run short and intermediate routes in the flats or the middle of the field as well as Waddle.

He's also not an option on quick-hitting red-zone plays that require, timing, quick releases, and toughness at the catch point. While Waddle doesn't show all three on this touchdown below, the timing he and Tagovailoa display here is impeccable.

Excellent feet by Tua on the built-in option to throw of the slant to Waddle pic.twitter.com/9oeIcdAXed

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 17, 2021

While Chase — my highest-scoring receiver ever in my evaluations at the position in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio — is undeniably playing great football, he's earning a lot of one-on-one opportunities thanks to Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. In contrast, Waddle is opening opportunities for Miami's other receivers, who aren't as talented as the Bengals' rotation.

Waddle’s presence short opens the zone even more foe Gesicki pic.twitter.com/qrchc4u9Js

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 17, 2021

Waddle opening things again for the TE pic.twitter.com/INnd2KRUU7

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 17, 2021

Mack Hollins, a career special teams maven, is averaging 15 yards per catch — nearly twice the amount as Waddle (8.29). Hollins and the tight ends have benefitted from defenses reacting first to Waddle's presence when he's in two-man and three-man route combinations and this gives the other receivers bigger openings between the shallow and deep zone coverage.

Tagovailoa is operating well with these limited weapons. His feet have been quick and efficient. He's manipulating coverage during his drops. And, Tagovailoa has show skill with reading the leverage of defenders and making wise choices with his ball placement.

Waddle opening things again for the TE pic.twitter.com/INnd2KRUU7

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 17, 2021

Efficient movement in pocket, post-drop—really added on by Tagovailoa pic.twitter.com/dMl1BIIMXv

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 17, 2021

Quick leverage read by Tua Tagovailoa #FinsUp pic.twitter.com/lTVlTogUHL

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 17, 2021

His lone big mistake in his return from injury was a ball that he tried to place on a line up the boundary rather than getting it over a defender in the flat.

Logic is as good, execution was not…Tagovailoa INT pic.twitter.com/xpbQiaiRzo

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) October 17, 2021

You may conclude that 300 yards passing and 2 touchdowns against Jacksonville's defense isn't legitimate praise. While you're downgrading the value of what Tagovailoa displayed in his return with his ribs still not fully mended, consider that Miami's remaining schedule includes Atlanta, Houston, the Jets (twice), the Giants, and Tennessee. The Bills, Panthers, and Ravens might be its toughest options out of the nine remaining fantasy contests for fantasy GMs.

This will take a degree of self-awareness that many don't have but if you can recognize that your team needs 1-2 talents that it won't likely earn from the waiver wire, rolling with Tagovailoa while trading away your top starter could prove beneficial for you if Tagovailoa weathers the trade rumors for Watson. It's difficult trading quarterbacks in most leagues but if you have an elite passer (producing in the top 3-5 range), consider using Tagovailoa as your starter so you can add a talent you need elsewhere if he remains in Miami. After all, if Baker Mayfield can deliver top-12 production down the stretch of 2020 with a cupcake schedule, Tagovailoa gives you a fighting chance as well.

Considering the coverage busts that these six defenses have given up in recent weeks (and years), Waddle could provide more than reliable PPR and red-zone value as well.

2. Khalil Herbert Is Stating His Case for the No.2 spot in Chicago and the TEmp Role as Its No.1

Last week — and for much of the winter, spring, and summer — I alerted you to the talents of rookie Khalil Herbert and his potential in Chicago if given an extended opportunity to play. Herbert's work in Week 5, including key fourth-quarter touches, was notable enough to profile. He outplayed Damien Williams as a zone runner, which was something one could project from their scouting reports.