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The Top 10 from Week 6

Matt Waldman's weekly film-and-fantasy review examines the buy-low passing combo in Miami, Colts on the rise, a pair of rookies making their mark with their first starts, a trio of edge rushers on the rebound, and fresh fish. 

By Matt Waldman
October 18, 2021
The Top 10 from Week 6
Photo: Sam Navarro, USA Today Sports

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MISSION

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with an unsustainable process.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy).

As always, I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 6'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.

  1. Jaylen Waddle's role prevents him from earning production efficiency on par with JaMarr Chase, but it has more to do with his surrounding talent. This doesn't include Tua Tagovailoa, who performed well in his return from injury. Waddle is a buy-low in re-draft and dynasty formats. Tagovailoa's value is all over the place due to rumors of a Deshaun Watson trade reigniting but he has played better than many think.
  2. Khalil Herbert made a strong case against the Packers to earn the lead role ahead of injured Damien Williams. He's the superior zone runner. Continue to expect a split between Herbert and Williams where Herbert leads in carries, and Williams in receptions.
  3. Rashod Bateman made his debut for the Ravens, illustrating his ability to get open and earn yardage after the catch. In theory, he could replace Sammy Watkins, but until that's stated, he might be a fantasy tease although still worth adding while Watkins is out.
  4. A valuable skill fantasy GMs want to see from quarterbacks is the ability to identify pre-snap opportunities to run the football and check to the run. Carson Wentz and Kyler Murray indirectly accounted for 2 carries for 123 yards with their checks to Jonathan Taylor and Chase Edmonds. When weighing the merits of runners, knowing if the quarterback is skilled with checking to runs can be another positive layer of information.
  5. Speaking of Taylor, Nyheim Hines may be the passing-down back, but the Colts are scheming Taylor into the passing game beyond the backfield and that's a notable development for his short-term and long-term production.
  6. T.Y. Hilton's quadriceps may be a complication for the next 1-2 weeks, but he's a good buy-low for a Colts team on the rise.
  7. Marvin Jones, like Emmanuel Sanders, is a perennially underrated fantasy wide receiver when healthy. He's easily the best option on the Jaguars and worth your consideration as you consider midseason deals.
  8. The Ravens' ground game beyond Lamar Jackson has been a difficult play for fantasy GMs but because of the potential fruit that this unit can still deliver, it's worth keeping you apprised. While still a muddled situation, it appears TySon Williams is out of the mix and Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, and LeVeon Bell have the most value in that order.
  9. Robert Quinn, Randy Gregory, and Everson Griffen are all veterans with career valleys who are experiencing a renaissance for their teams and your IDP rosters.
  10. Fresh Fish.
    • The Chargers' defense could not defend the run thanks to a pair of missing linebackers.
    • The Browns' replacement tackles could not generate a push or protect the passer with any reliability against the Cardinals.
    • Despite the situation with the tackles and missing Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield made three huge mistakes and the tackle play wasn't a factor.
    • The Texans' defensive front gave up over 100 yards to Jonathan Taylor despite the Colts missing a starting tackle and guard.

For those of you who wish to learn the why's, the details are below.

1. Jaylen Waddle and Tua Tagovailoa Are Buy-Lows

Jaylen Waddle has been every bit as impressive as JaMarr Chase. For those who give greater weight to the vertical passing game, this statement will be difficult for them to reconcile. Although Waddle and Chase both have promising quarterback play — more on Tagovailoa in a moment, Waddle is operating without comparable surrounding talent at wide receiver.

Will Fuller, the cicada of fantasy football, is once again underground. DeVante Parker has always been a great physical talent but he's not a complete receiver and he's also hurt. Preston Williams would be fighting for the fourth spot on the Bengals' depth chart. The result is that Waddle has become a faster Jarvis Landry in function for Miami — 24th in PPR value at his position, but 9th overall in receptions.

Compared inaccurately to Henry Ruggs because fans and media can be guilty of logo scouting instead of examining the film and data scouting, Waddle makes plays in the quick game and the middle of the field that was not Ruggs' game last year. Ruggs doesn't run short and intermediate routes in the flats or the middle of the field as well as Waddle.

He's also not an option on quick-hitting red-zone plays that require, timing, quick releases, and toughness at the catch point. While Waddle doesn't show all three on this touchdown below, the timing he and Tagovailoa display here is impeccable.

While Chase — my highest-scoring receiver ever in my evaluations at the position in the Rookie Scouting Portfolio — is undeniably playing great football, he's earning a lot of one-on-one opportunities thanks to Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. In contrast, Waddle is opening opportunities for Miami's other receivers, who aren't as talented as the Bengals' rotation.

Mack Hollins, a career special teams maven, is averaging 15 yards per catch — nearly twice the amount as Waddle (8.29). Hollins and the tight ends have benefitted from defenses reacting first to Waddle's presence when he's in two-man and three-man route combinations and this gives the other receivers bigger openings between the shallow and deep zone coverage.

Tagovailoa is operating well with these limited weapons. His feet have been quick and efficient. He's manipulating coverage during his drops. And, Tagovailoa has show skill with reading the leverage of defenders and making wise choices with his ball placement.

His lone big mistake in his return from injury was a ball that he tried to place on a line up the boundary rather than getting it over a defender in the flat.

You may conclude that 300 yards passing and 2 touchdowns against Jacksonville's defense isn't legitimate praise. While you're downgrading the value of what Tagovailoa displayed in his return with his ribs still not fully mended, consider that Miami's remaining schedule includes Atlanta, Houston, the Jets (twice), the Giants, and Tennessee. The Bills, Panthers, and Ravens might be its toughest options out of the nine remaining fantasy contests for fantasy GMs.

This will take a degree of self-awareness that many don't have but if you can recognize that your team needs 1-2 talents that it won't likely earn from the waiver wire, rolling with Tagovailoa while trading away your top starter could prove beneficial for you if Tagovailoa weathers the trade rumors for Watson. It's difficult trading quarterbacks in most leagues but if you have an elite passer (producing in the top 3-5 range), consider using Tagovailoa as your starter so you can add a talent you need elsewhere if he remains in Miami. After all, if Baker Mayfield can deliver top-12 production down the stretch of 2020 with a cupcake schedule, Tagovailoa gives you a fighting chance as well.

Considering the coverage busts that these six defenses have given up in recent weeks (and years), Waddle could provide more than reliable PPR and red-zone value as well.

2. Khalil Herbert Is Stating His Case for the No.2 spot in Chicago and the TEmp Role as Its No.1

Last week — and for much of the winter, spring, and summer — I alerted you to the talents of rookie Khalil Herbert and his potential in Chicago if given an extended opportunity to play. Herbert's work in Week 5, including key fourth-quarter touches, was notable enough to profile. He outplayed Damien Williams as a zone runner, which was something one could project from their scouting reports.

With Williams out on Sunday, Herbert earned the start, delivered 100 yards on the ground, and showed his skills as a receiver. The Bears' offensive line is at its best when running zone plays, which is Herbert's greatest strength and where Williams is only competent. Once again, Herbert showed off his cutback prowess against the Packers.

Herbert also delivered when forced to create in the backfield, a sign of his vision and efficiency as a runner.

Williams is the most proven blocker and receiver on the Bears, but Chicago's coaching staff has praised Herbert's receiving skills and they have repeatedly stated its confidence in Herbert's understanding and execution of the offense. Based on the fourth-quarter usage of Herbert in Week 5 and his performance in Week 6, look for Williams to remain the back in the two-minute offense as well as a change of pace option but for Herbert to earn the lead role until David Montgomery returns.

When Montgomery returns and the dynamic plays out with Herbert as stated above, Williams will remain the No.2 option in name due to his roles but Herbert will likely see more playing time as the primary runner when the Bears give Montgomery a breather. And, if Montgomery gets hurt again, Herbert will be the lead ball carrier.

3. Rashod Bateman's Sammy Watkins' Impersonation: CAn He Overtake Watkins This Year?

Watkins' hamstring injury opened the door for Bateman to draw the start in Baltimore. As profiled a few weeks ago, Bateman has the talent to eventually earn space in a tier with CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, and Justin Jefferson, but the Ravens don't have the same caliber of surrounding talent at receiver to create easier mismatches. And, as good as Lamar Jackson is, his lack of perimeter velocity as a thrower places just enough limitations on the breadth of the passing game to put a lower ceiling of expectation on Bateman short-term.

Yes, Jackson has improved as a perimeter thrower. However, the lines on NextGen Stats look prettier and more impressive than the film I've seen and I prefer the contextual evidence of the tape.

Bateman is an intriguing addition for your squad if you are receiver needy. He's going to earn a lot of love from analysts who do the film work like me but will be selective about how many unproven players you keep on your roster who you're waiting to deliver for you. My advice: 3-4 should be your maximum, depending on the size of your roster. Think 1 for every 12-15 players.

So, as promising as his use in the offense may appear in his debut with the Chargers keep in mind that once Watkins returns, Bateman might find himself on the perimeter earning similar targets but with a lower efficiency of production. With this in mind, Bateman provides you another 2-4 weeks of value as a bye-week or flex-option with big-play value -- especially in the middle of the field after the catch where the nexus of his and Jackson skills intersect.

At the same time, Bateman arrived in Baltimore with a common technical issue we see with most rookie receivers — when to use the overhand or underhand technique with targets at the numbers.

This play shouldn't hold back Bateman's opportunity unless it becomes a recurring issue that cuts short drives and leads to turnovers. I'm not counting on it. Bateman is a wise investment as a short-term option that could translate for the rest of the year just beware of Watkins and the boom-bust variance that could occur with a change in Bateman's role upon Watkins' return.

4. Carson Wentz and Kyler Murray: Quarterbacks Helping their Running Backs

I would love to see a data analyst with legitimate football knowledge track the rushing production of backs after the quarterback audibled from a pass to a run. It would be fascinating to see which quarterbacks do this the most and which backs earned the biggest plays. Younger quarterbacks aren't always as skilled at recognizing when a defense is overplaying the pass or which play is the best adjustment to exploit the defense.

On Sunday Wentz and Murray checked to the run and those 2 plays generated 123 yards.

Knowing that Wentz and Murray display this awareness may not be weighty enough of a factor to elevate a running back significantly higher in your projected outlook for the year, but it's enough to split the difference between closely ranked options and worth understanding and appreciating its value as a fan.

That said, it's an added bonus for Jonathan Taylor who could become an elite fantasy force for years to come.

5. Elite Production Alert? The Colts Are Utilizing Jonathan Taylor As a Receiver

Taylor produce at an elite level on the ground during the second half of his rookie year. Although a dedicated study of Taylor's film at Wisconsin indicated that Taylor could catch the football, the Badgers don't showcase running backs in the passing game. It's why Taylor's 100-yard performance in the passing game against the Ravens was a legitimate shocker.

While that career-high was based largely on one huge play, Taylor has seen more targets as a receiver this year, and the fact that he's currently tied with Kenneth Gainwell, Kenyan Drake, and Alvin Kamara with 15 receptions is notable. Most telling is that Taylor is also tied with his teammate Nyheim Hines.

A scatback that most fantasy GMs considered a high-output receiver with PPR value, Hines could be losing enough ground to Taylor to render him a bye-week option. Even before Week 5's receiving yards explosion, Taylor's 11 catches for 81 yards in September weren't significantly far from Hines' 14 catches for 124.

This could be a more even split than we anticipated. It's also telling that the Colts are using Taylor in schemed plays as a primary option and not just as an outlet.

This was the type of target we normally would see reserved for Hines. The fact that Indianapolis is giving Taylor some of Hines' plays is a good thing for Taylor and maybe a bad thing for Hines' ceiling.

6. T.Y. Hilton Is a Buy-Low

Hilton's 4-catch, 80-yard debut against the lowly Texans may feel like a 40-degree day for some of you, but the Colts have a decent schedule. This list includes Jacksonville, Tennessee, the Jets, Houston, and New England as teams that give up a lot through the air and the Cardinals, Bills, and Buccaneers, who force opposing offenses to keep up with a high pace of scoring.

At age 31, many fantasy GMs who can't imagine turning 30 think Hilton has fallen off the edge of the fantasy map and dragons have eaten him. However, Hilton showed that he's very much alive as a route runner on the perimeter as well as a speedster who can inflict huge damage from the slot.

One of the better contested-catch options in the league, Hilton gives the Colts a versatile option that Frank Reich's staff can use all over the field. With Michael Pittman emerging into a reliable option beyond crossing routes, the reliability of Zach Pascal, and the big-play potential of Parris Campbell, Hilton could be a buy-low in an offense that has the schedule and tools to gel.

The only factor is injury. Quentin Nelson should return from IR in Week 7 and injuries at tackle have made this position a question mark. Then there's Hilton's aggravation of a quad strain at the end of the game. Hilton and the Colts seem optimistic that it wasn't a serious aggravation.

Even if Hilton misses a week or two I'm optimistic about his fantasy potential when he returns and could be a nice option to use a linchpin for building your roster for the stretch run.

7. Marvin Jones Is A Buy-Now

Speaking of perennial buy-lows, Marvin Jones is the 27th-ranked PPR receiver in fantasy as of Week 7. He'd be much higher if not for a 3-24-0 performance against the Bengals and a follow-up performance of 1-25-0 in Week 5 against the Titans. Jones was 20th among PPR options prior to this two-week stretch.

Trading for Jones during the bye-week is a strategically good time to get a player from an impulsive fantasy GM who is thinking week-to-week, especially if he's thinking about Urban Meyer's self-inflicted troubles and Jones' two weeks of bad production. He might see Jones' 100-yard performance against Miami as just the right factor to sell high.

That's good for you. Jacksonville faces weak defenses and/or high-performing offenses for the rest of the year: Seattle, Buffalo, Atlanta, the Rams, Houston, Jets, and New England. Jones is the target leader on this passing game, the most versatile weapon and the best option on contested targets.

Jones is one of the most quarterback-friendly options in the NFL. If you need to adjust your roster and you're seeking a buy-low candidate as part of a package deal where you're shipping off a marquee producer, consider Jones, who has proven he can give you stretches of WR1 production both as a vertical option and a touchdown guy.

8. Why Some of You Shouldn't Give Up on the Ravens' Running Backs

The Ravens' ground game has fallen short of lofty expectations. Injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are a big deal, but the offensive line has also been a massive problem. Although the Ravens' schedule lacks many patsies for the ground game, Lamar Jackson's skills give Baltimore's running backs a fighting chance when the rest of the factors mention would lead me to direct you elsewhere.

I'm not referring to fantasy GMs who send me "tell me how good my team is," requests disguised as transaction questions. For those of you legitimately without a reliable RB2 or RB3, holding onto a Ravens' runner or adding one to the roster might still be worthwhile and actually, pay off for you later on.

TySon Willams does not appear to be one of them. Two weeks ago, the Ravens benched him for a tentative running style that he has shown on and off throughout the season despite playing with greater abandon during the preseason. This was apparent once again with his play in Week 5 after getting flip-flopped on and off the practice squad with LeVeon Bell. Williams may get another shot if 1-2 of the veterans get hurt, but he has been expendable.

Williams is the case of a talented player who isn't performing with the confidence and aggression that he showed when earning the opportunity to start. Whether he figures this out is a question no one can predict, so you err on the side of doubt.

Latavius Murray is the safest option. He's decisive, powerful, and he can generate a push in traffic.

Devonta Freeman is the best zone runner of the trio and he's an aggressive player who still has the burst to generate chain-moving plays. Now that he's gaining comfort and rapport with Jackson in the zone-read system, he might be the best combination of floor/ceiling of the trio.

Bell scored on a run inside the five that was uncontested to the right pylon. He hasn't shown enough publicly to generate excitement but on paper, he's the least "damaged" of the players in terms of wear and tear over the course of a career. If you're rotating players at the end of your roster as speculative additions, Bell qualifies as a candidate.

I'll continue to keep you posted throughout the year.

9. IDP Alert: The Edge Renaissance of Robert Quinn, Everson Griffen, and Randy Gregory

Most of my leagues are IDP dynasty formats. Quinn, Griffen, and Gregory were all written off in recent years for various reasons: injury, mental health, and substance abuse. All three are playing at a high level and are great waiver additions or bye-nows for teams in a window of contention this year.

Quinn is listed as a linebacker in many leagues, but I've also seen formats where he's given defensive line status. In this case, he's among the elite defensive line scorers in fantasy leagues today. Griffen is on the rise and has posted top-10 production since Week 3. Gregory is 13th during that same span and at 29, has the most years left in his game.

If you're in win-now mode, I'd be shopping for this trio.

10. Fresh Fish: Week 6

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd loving nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up.

Special of the Week: The Giants Offense

Daniel Jones has made small strides as a starter, but not enough to successfully produce in the onslaught he's about to face due to the absence of Andrew Thomas at left tackle, multiple starting receivers, and Saquon Barkley. Carolina, Kansas City, and Las Vegas should benefit in the coming weeks.

Here's the rest of the list.

  • The Chargers' defense could not defend the run thanks to a pair of missing linebackers.
  • The Browns' replacement tackles could not generate a push or protect the passer with any reliability against the Cardinals.
  • Despite the situation with the tackles and missing Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield made three huge mistakes and the tackle play wasn't a factor.
  • The Texans' defensive front gave up over 100 yards to Jonathan Taylor despite the Colts missing a starting tackle and guard.

Thanks again for all of your feedback on this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

Tags:DLQBRBWRPoint-per-receptionStrategyAtlanta FalconsBaltimore RavensChicago BearsDallas CowboysIndianapolis ColtsJacksonville JaguarsMiami DolphinsMinnesota Vikings
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