One of the most common questions of the offseason is, "Should I keep Player A or Player B?"
Sometimes the question is easy to answer on its face, but often it requires more investigation. There is a set of questions you should ask yourself that will make the decision easier.
What are my league scoring and lineups?
Why this is helpful: The simplest way to create an advantage over the rest of your league is to understand how your league’s setup emphasizes and deemphasizes the value of a position. Beyond rules that obviously weight positions heavier (superflex giving a bump to quarterbacks or tight end premium boosting tight ends), looking at scoring gaps between elite options and replacement-level starters and the effect of performance bonuses and large/small lineups can skew the value of players at certain positions.
Quarterback: 5 or 6 point passing touchdowns and 300-yard game bonuses increase the value of Patrick Mahomes II and bring running quarterbacks back to the pack a bit. Long touchdown bonuses generally increase the gap between the top options and replacement-level players. And 14- or 16-team leagues could also increase the desirability of keeping a top quarterback. Look at the per-game scoring average for the top quarterbacks compared to wide receiver and running back. Chances are an elite quarterback like Josh Allen or Mahomes is worth a keeper spot.
Running Back: Non-PPR or .5 PPR scoring formats favor running backs over wide receivers. Two starting wide receivers instead of three favor running backs over wide receivers. Reliable running backs are scarcer than ever, so keeping one in 14 or 16 team leagues might be necessary even if you are throwing back a player at another position that you like better.
Wide Receiver: Wide receiver scoring was very level after Davante Adams last year, no matter the scoring format. Even PPR leagues that offer the option to start 4 or 5 wide receivers might not weigh the position enough to break ties in favor of the wideout.
Tight End: Tight end premium formats dictate that all three of Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and George Kittle will be kept, and maybe T.J. Hockenson too. Even simple PPR makes Kelce worth a mid-first and Waller and Kittle worth second-round picks.
The Big Questions
How many players can each team keep? How many do they have to keep? Do teams forfeit draft picks as a cost for a keeper? Does the price go up if the player can be kept for multiple years? How long can you keep players?
This is really a corollary to “know your scoring and lineups.” These five questions can really boil down to: "Know your league keeper parameters."
The keeper parameters greatly affect the optics of keeper decisions. If you can only keep a player for one year and everyone gets to keep one at no cost, you should keep the player you would draft the highest in redraft this year. If every team can keep three players forever, but foregoing a keeper gives you a pick in the first three rounds (i.e., you forfeit your first-round pick for your first keeper, second-round for your second, and third-round for your third), then it might be smart not to keep all three players if you see a rookie you want to get "into your system" for good. When thinking about the value of the draft picks in keeper leagues, you should always add the number of keepers to the round. A first-round pick in a keep three league is really a fourth-round pick, and so on.
Understand that the extra value captured when you only have to pay the original round of a pick to keep a player is hugely important. Being able to keep players for three years or longer, even if the cost goes up one or two rounds every year, greatly incentivizes keeping later picks over earlier picks, but again, in leagues that allow, say, three keepers, teams that forfeit a first-round pick are really forfeiting a fourth, so don’t get too enamored with keeping cheaper keepers who can hit later if your league has a high number of keepers. This can also affect draft strategy as drafting a player is really a “contract” with an option to keep them at whatever cost and term of years the rules lay out.
What is my draft slot?
Many leagues assign draft slots by a random draw, so this may be a non-starter. Still, if you know that the draft order is the opposite of the previous year's finish or announced early in the offseason, you can start looking ahead to who you can expect to get in the first round. For instance, you are likely to get a top rookie running back with a top-five pick in leagues that have multiple keepers and multiple keeper years, so if you know you are picking early, you might decide to keep a non-running back over a running back. Alternatively, if you pick later in that kind of league, you should weigh running backs heavier. An early draft slot can also allow you to immediately snap up a player you love but couldn’t keep in a numbers crunch.
Other Big Questions
Do I have to throw back any players that others would find keeper-worthy? Can I pull off a two for one that improves my keepers? Can other teams trade draft picks to me for keepers?
Sometimes we have outstanding seasons that see us ending the year with two top-10 players or four top-24 players, and so on. Look over the other rosters. If you have three players with second-round value to choose from for one keeper slot and another team has one first-round value player but no one worth a second, they might be open to trading their first-round level keeper for two of your second-round level keepers. In leagues that have three or more keepers that allow draft pick trading, you may have players who you have to throw back who could be attractive enough to keeper-poor teams to increase your draft capital basically for free if you can’t pull off consolidation trades to increase the quality if your keepers.
Be careful. If you want to keep a player "in your system," you might prefer to throw them back and hope you can draft them with your first pick instead of transferring their rights to a team that can keep them for multiple or indefinite years (assuming your rules allow for that)
Which player(s) are other teams keeping?
This is where being friendly and trustworthy over the years can really help you. Show some curiosity in your leaguemates' decisions. Maybe they will engage in subterfuge and try to throw you off of the trail, but many fantasy players are transparent or at least will give you information that will inform your decisions. Knowing that Jackson, Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen are likely to be kept can help you decide whether to keep Kyler Murray. If you know Travis Kelce is getting thrown back and you have an early pick, you might break a tie against keeper a tight end, and so on.