
Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
UPDATED SATURDAY, DECEMBER 4th @ 12 PM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Tampa Bay | Atlanta | -10.5 | 50.5 | 30.5 | ««« | ««« | |
LA Rams | Jacksonville | -13 | 48 | 30.5 | ««« | ««« | «« |
Kansas City | Denver | -9.5 | 47 | 28.25 | «« | ««« | « |
Indianapolis | Houston | -10 | 44.5 | 27.25 | « | «« | «« |
Minnesota | Detroit | -7.5 | 46.5 | 27 | « | «« | « |
Dallas | New Orleans | -5.5 | 47.5 | 26.5 | « | « | |
Cincinnati | LA Chargers | -3 | 49.5 | 26.25 | « | « | |
Philadelphia | NY Jets | -6.5 | 45 | 25.75 | « | ||
Las Vegas | Washington | -1.5 | 49.5 | 25.5 | |||
Arizona | Chicago | -7.5 | 42.5 | 25 | «« | ||
San Francisco | Seattle | -3 | 45.5 | 24.25 | |||
Baltimore | Pittsburgh | -4.5 | 44 | 24.25 | « | ||
Washington | Las Vegas | 1.5 | 49.5 | 24 | |||
LA Chargers | Cincinnati | 3 | 49.5 | 23.25 | |||
Miami | NY Giants | -6 | 39.5 | 22.75 | «« | ||
Buffalo | New England | -2.5 | 41 | 21.75 | « | ||
Seattle | San Francisco | 3 | 45.5 | 21.25 | |||
New Orleans | Dallas | 5.5 | 47.5 | 21 | |||
Atlanta | Tampa Bay | 10.5 | 50.5 | 20 | |||
Pittsburgh | Baltimore | 4.5 | 44 | 19.75 | |||
Detroit | Minnesota | 7.5 | 46.5 | 19.5 | |||
New England | Buffalo | 2.5 | 41 | 19.25 | |||
NY Jets | Philadelphia | 6.5 | 45 | 19.25 | |||
Denver | Kansas City | 9.5 | 47 | 18.75 | |||
Chicago | Arizona | 7.5 | 42.5 | 17.5 | |||
Jacksonville | LA Rams | 13 | 48 | 17.5 | |||
Houston | Indianapolis | 10 | 44.5 | 17.25 | |||
NY Giants | Miami | 6 | 39.5 | 16.75 |
Bye Weeks: Carolina, Cleveland, Green Bay, Tennessee
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Buccaneers), Matthew Stafford (Rams)
- Running Back: Leonard Fournette (Buccaneers), Darrell Henderson (Rams), Clyde Edwards-Helaire/Darrel Williams (Chiefs)
- Receivers: Chris Godwin/Mike Evans/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers), Cooper Kupp/Odell Beckham Jr/Tyler Higbee (Rams)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Jonathan Taylor (Colts), Alexander Mattison (Vikings)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs)
- Defense: Dolphins, Colts, Rams, Cardinals
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Carson Wentz (Colts), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Joe Burrow (Bengals)
- Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard (Cowboys), Joe Mixon (Bengals)
- Receivers: Michael Pittman Jr/Zach Pascal/Jack Doyle (Colts), Justin Jefferson/Adam Thielen/Tyler Conklin (Vikings), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/CeeDee Lamb/Dalton Schultz (Cowboys), Ja'Marr Chase/Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd (Bengals)
- Defense: Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, Vikings, Ravens