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One of the most exploitable inefficiencies in dynasty fantasy football is the difference between where players are selected in startup drafts and their 2021 projection. High-priced players are more long-term bets, so their 2021 projection is less significant than lower-priced players with much lower long-term hit rates. For the later picks, in particular, players projected to outscore their draft position should be targeted. Below are wide receivers who beat their current dynasty cost in our consensus projections.
Marvin Jones Jr (Dynasty ADP: WR68, Our 2021 Projection: WR44)
Marvin Jones Jr left the Detroit Lions to join the Jacksonville Jaguars this offseason. Jones is coming off a WR15 finish in 2020 and a WR28 finish in 13 games in 2019 with Detroit. The offensive situation is completely different in Jacksonville, with plenty of competition from D.J. Chark Jr and Laviska Shenault Jr. Still, Jones can be useful as a depth option at this point in his career.
Robby Anderson (Dynasty ADP: WR49.5, Our 2021 Projection: WR29)
Robby Anderson had a career-best in targets (137), receptions (95), and receiving yards (1097) in 2020, with Teddy Bridgewater playing quarterback. There is more competition, with second-round pick Terrace Marshall Jr projected for 52 receptions and 76.6 receptions by D.J. Moore, but Anderson is projected for 80.9 receptions. Anderson has finished in the top 40 in the past four years, and even without positive touchdown regression, Anderson should outproduce his cost in a contract year.
Tyler Boyd (Dynasty ADP: WR45, Our 2021 Projection: WR26)
Tyler Boyd has finished as WR17, WR23, and WR37 in the past three years, with a minimum of 108 targets during that time. Boyd projects as the third wide receiver in the Cincinnati offense, but we project 87.6 receptions which would be the second-best reception total in his career. If Ja’Marr Chase struggles to produce as a rookie or Tee Higgins fails to take a step forward, Boyd can outproduce his projection.
Tyler Lockett (Dynasty ADP: WR32, Our 2021 Projection: WR15)
Tyler Lockett is undervalued by the market as his teammate DK Metcalf, the arch type WR1 the dynasty community prefers, is priced higher without a superior production profile. Lockett has WR11, WR16, and WR11 finishes in the past three seasons, with a WR15 projection, right in line with his prior production. Lockett is coming off a contract extension, which should allow him to continue to outproduce his cost over the next two to three seasons.
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