Links to other positions in this series:
It’s hard to believe the NFL regular season is here, but Week 1 gets underway on Thursday. If you're like me, you still have several key drafts to complete in the next few days. After spending more than four months focusing on every bit of minutiae, every tidbit, every coach’s quote, and adjusting our rankings and projections, a lot can change from our original expectations.
Tight Ends Who Changed My Mind
Dallas Goedert (PHI) is one of the difference makers
There aren’t many tight ends who stand above the fray. The key in drafts is ensuring you don’t draft “just another guy” at the cost of a real difference maker. After the Eagles acquired A.J. Brown, I worried there wouldn’t be enough passing targets to support everyone. But it’s clear the coaches intend to move away from last year’s run-heavy approach and be more balanced, and Goedert was definitively the No. 2 option throughout camp and the preseason. He should see enough work to push for Top-5 value.
Dawson Knox (BUF) has a problematic ADP
The truth is most tight ends only have fantasy relevance when they score touchdowns, and inevitably there’s a point in every draft where you’re better off waiting until much later because the difference between the 8th tight end and the 15th is negligible. Knox has the unfortunate honor of being that guy this year. Take away his nine touchdowns last season, and he’s nothing special. You’re better off grabbing someone with comparable talent and target opportunity and hoping for positive touchdown variance.
Mike Gesicki (MIA) is an easy fade
Early in the preseason, Gesicki was comfortably ranked and drafted among the 8-to-10 difference makers at the position. But as we better understood what head coach Mike McDaniel has planned offensively, the warning signs emerged. Gesicki is now being used as an in-line option and will be primarily asked to block. He recently said he was “learning a new position,” which means fewer targets and marginal fantasy value.