If You're Drafting on Underdog this Weekend

Photo: Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports

We are going to analyze all of the latest news, ADP movement, and context you need to prepare for your upcoming Underdog best ball drafts. If you are here, you are early. Only the diehards are drafting now, and we are still weeks away from the casuals showing up. One benefit of getting in early is that we can take advantage of some early ADP bargains before the training camp hype truly beings to build. We will highlight some of those potential opportunities for those drafting this weekend. Getting an early start also will put us in a position to dominate in August when we truly enter draft season.

Here are the topics we will discuss in-depth this week:

• Panthers ADP Movers
• The Chiefs WR to Target
• The last bellcow running back
• Gabriel Davis Sticker Shock
• The 9th-round back with elite TD Upside

1. Panthers ADP Movers

One of the weekly metrics we will track is net ADP movement by team. Over the past week, the Carolina Panthers are the team with by far the most positive ADP movement. On the heels of the Baker Mayfield trade, drafters have become more bullish on the Panthers offense.

On an individual basis, a number of Panthers have seen their stock rise:

The move from the 17th round to the 16th is completely understandable for Mayfield. Despite the open competition, he should be considered the heavy favorite to start over Sam Darnold. While Mayfield’s ceiling is not particularly high, he is a solid value for drafters looking to value their quarterbacks.

Robbie Anderson’s ADP rising by a full round and a half is more difficult to justify. Anderson struggled mightily last season and indicated this offseason he was contemplating retirement. He also took what should be considered a shot at the guy who will decide how many targets he will get. In April, Anderson responded to a report that Carolina was a potential landing spot for Mayfield with an emphatic "Nooooo" on Instagram before deleting the comment. Anderson attempted to justify the comment by saying he was trying to be a "good teammate" to Sam Darnold, but Mayfield seems like the type of guy who might hold a grudge.

Terrace Marshall Jr Jr. said he's not much of a talker, but the Panthers' WR is ready to *show* what he can do in his second year.

"I'm not a man of too many words," he said. "I like to share things through my actions."https://t.co/N9n7qSio2I

— Augusta Stone (@augustalstone) July 5, 2022

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The more intriguing option is Terrace Marshall Jr, who has seen his ADP change less drastically. Despite his stock rising slightly, Marshall is still going outside of the Top 200 overall. While he did not do much as a rookie, Marshall is a freaky physical specimen. At 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds, he ran a 4.40-flat in the 40 Yard Dash at his Pro Day. He has been listed by beat writers as one of the top standouts from OTAs and is a solid candidate for a second-year breakout. You could do a lot worse in the 17th or 18th round of drafts this weekend.

2. MVS: The Chiefs WR to Target

With Tyreek Hill in Miami, the WR1 competition in Kansas City is wide open. Let’s take a look at the latest Underdog ADP numbers:

JuJu Smith-Schuster is the consensus favorite of drafters, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the dark horse candidate and the best Chiefs pass catcher to target. For the first time this offseason, Valdes-Scantling has leap-frogged rookie Skyy Moore to be the second-highest drafted Chiefs wide receiver. In fact, Valdes-Scantling has been the biggest riser in the Top 100 over the last week (edging out DJ Moore, Chris Olave, and Trey Lance). For good reason. While Smith-Schuster is the bigger name and has been a much more productive fantasy player to date, it is worth noting the disparity in terms of financial commitment from the Chiefs. Smith-Schuster’s contract with the Chiefs carries a total of $1.035 million in guaranteed salary and a $1.455 million signing bonus for a total contract value of $2.49M on his one-year deal. He does have some incentives that could increase the total, but this was a bargain basement contract by any measure. It pales in comparison to the deal signed by Valdes-Scantling, who inked a 3 year, $30,000,000 contract that included a $6,000,000 signing bonus, $15,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $10,000,000. The early buzz out of Kansas City has been that Valdes-Scantling is picking the offense up quickly and has already formed a nice rapport with Mahomes.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Chiefs WR1? pic.twitter.com/R1jSjg6cLx

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) July 9, 2022

If you are drafting this weekend, it is worth targeting Valdes-Scantling in the 8th Round. By August, he could be going in the 6th or 7th round if he continues on his current trajectory.