We are going to analyze all of the latest news, ADP movement, and context you need to prepare for your upcoming Underdog best ball drafts. If you are here, you are early. Only the diehards are drafting now, and we are still weeks away from the casuals showing up. One benefit of getting in early is that we can take advantage of some early ADP bargains before the training camp hype truly beings to build. We will highlight some of those potential opportunities for those drafting this weekend. Getting an early start also will put us in a position to dominate in August when we truly enter draft season.
Here are the topics we will discuss in-depth this week:
- Panthers ADP Movers
- The Chiefs WR to Target
- The last bellcow running back
- Gabriel Davis Sticker Shock
- The 9th-round back with elite TD Upside
1. Panthers ADP Movers
One of the weekly metrics we will track is net ADP movement by team. Over the past week, the Carolina Panthers are the team with by far the most positive ADP movement. On the heels of the Baker Mayfield trade, drafters have become more bullish on the Panthers offense.
| Rank | Team | ADP Movement |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Panthers | -46.1 |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | -10.5 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Chargers | -10.1 |
On an individual basis, a number of Panthers have seen their stock rise:
| Player | Pos | Current ADP | Last Week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Anderson | WR | 151.5 | 169.8 | -18.3 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | 192.8 | 206.8 | -14.0 |
| Terrace Marshall | WR | 203.7 | 211.4 | -7.7 |
| D.J. Moore | WR | 31.1 | 37.0 | -5.9 |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | 2.3 | 2.9 | -0.6 |
The move from the 17th round to the 16th is completely understandable for Mayfield. Despite the open competition, he should be considered the heavy favorite to start over Sam Darnold. While Mayfield’s ceiling is not particularly high, he is a solid value for drafters looking to value their quarterbacks.
Robbie Anderson’s ADP rising by a full round and a half is more difficult to justify. Anderson struggled mightily last season and indicated this offseason he was contemplating retirement. He also took what should be considered a shot at the guy who will decide how many targets he will get. In April, Anderson responded to a report that Carolina was a potential landing spot for Mayfield with an emphatic "Nooooo" on Instagram before deleting the comment. Anderson attempted to justify the comment by saying he was trying to be a "good teammate" to Sam Darnold, but Mayfield seems like the type of guy who might hold a grudge.
Terrace Marshall Jr said he's not much of a talker, but the Panthers' WR is ready to *show* what he can do in his second year.
— Augusta Stone (@augustalstone) July 5, 2022
"I'm not a man of too many words," he said. "I like to share things through my actions."https://t.co/N9n7qSio2I
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The more intriguing option is Terrace Marshall, who has seen his ADP change less drastically. Despite his stock rising slightly, Marshall is still going outside of the Top 200 overall. While he did not do much as a rookie, Marshall is a freaky physical specimen. At 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds, he ran a 4.40-flat in the 40 Yard Dash at his Pro Day. He has been listed by beat writers as one of the top standouts from OTAs and is a solid candidate for a second-year breakout. You could do a lot worse in the 17th or 18th round of drafts this weekend.
2. MVS: The Chiefs WR to Target
With Tyreek Hill in Miami, the WR1 competition in Kansas City is wide open. Let’s take a look at the latest Underdog ADP numbers:
| Player | Current ADP | Last Week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 54.7 | 57.4 | -2.7 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 90.2 | 98.3 | -8.1 |
| Skyy Moore | 99.4 | 97.1 | 2.3 |
| Mecole Hardman | 126.2 | 127.9 | -1.7 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster is the consensus favorite of drafters, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the dark horse candidate and the best Chiefs pass catcher to target. For the first time this offseason, Valdes-Scantling has leap-frogged rookie Skyy Moore to be the second-highest drafted Chiefs wide receiver. In fact, Valdes-Scantling has been the biggest riser in the Top 100 over the last week (edging out DJ Moore, Chris Olave, and Trey Lance). For good reason. While Smith-Schuster is the bigger name and has been a much more productive fantasy player to date, it is worth noting the disparity in terms of financial commitment from the Chiefs. Smith-Schuster’s contract with the Chiefs carries a total of $1.035 million in guaranteed salary and a $1.455 million signing bonus for a total contract value of $2.49M on his one-year deal. He does have some incentives that could increase the total, but this was a bargain basement contract by any measure. It pales in comparison to the deal signed by Valdes-Scantling, who inked a 3 year, $30,000,000 contract that included a $6,000,000 signing bonus, $15,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $10,000,000. The early buzz out of Kansas City has been that Valdes-Scantling is picking the offense up quickly and has already formed a nice rapport with Mahomes.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Chiefs WR1? pic.twitter.com/R1jSjg6cLx
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) July 9, 2022
If you are drafting this weekend, it is worth targeting Valdes-Scantling in the 8th Round. By August, he could be going in the 6th or 7th round if he continues on his current trajectory.
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3. Travis Etienne: The last likely bellcow
The first couple of rounds are laden with strong running back options, but the potential three-down back options dry up quickly as you get deeper into Round 3. There is a strong case to be made that Travis Etienne is currently the cheapest running back available with an inside shot at being a true workhorse. It can be helpful to view your drafting option through the lens of tiers and hone in on where the drop-offs occur. As of now, the running back options really fall off after Etienne (RB16 with an ADP of 35.2). The next few backs all have serious competition for touches (Ezekiel Elliott, Breece Hall, David Montgomery, etc.). Etienne stands alone atop the Jacksonville depth chart and looks poised to be the go-to option in the Jaguars offense.
.@ZK_FFB thinks Travis Etienne could deliver terrific fantasy value this year.
— NBC Sports EDGE (@NBCSportsEdge) July 1, 2022
He previews Jacksonville's entire offense: https://t.co/Re55OGnw1v pic.twitter.com/5xEfwE6VWp
Now, all of that could change should James Robinson make a full and timely recovery from his late-season Achilles injury. However, reports indicate Robinson is unlikely to be ready for the start of training camp. Plus, history has shown that full recoveries from a torn Achilles are few and far between at any position, much less at running back. If Etienne starts the season off hot, he could bury Robinson on the bench and emerge as one of the league’s best young running backs.
Just in case you needed another reason to hop on the Travis Etienne bandwagon, Trevor Lawrence led the league with an 11.3% check-down rate last year. No other quarterback was above 10%.
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) July 8, 2022
If you’re drafting this weekend, strongly consider Etienne near the 3-4 turn. If he is gone, look to another position instead of dipping into the next tier at running back.
4. Gabriel Davis Sticker Shock
The further we get into the offseason, the higher Gabriel Davis is going in drafts. His ADP dropped from 47.2 last week to 42.7 this week, and he is now going ahead of much more proven commodities like Diontae Johnson. For some, his ADP is inducing sticker shock. It is understandable to an extent. Johnson saw a whopping 169 targets last season compared to just 63 for Davis. On projected volume alone, it can be hard to justify just how much Davis’ stock has risen. However, the belief here is that the Davis hype is justified.
A deeper dive into Davis’ 2021 season sheds light on why so many drafters are so high on his upside heading into 2022. Through the first 12 games, Davis never played more than 52% of the snaps in any game. Over that stretch, he averaged a mere 2.6 targets per game. However, from Week 13 on, his usage changed drastically. Over his last six games (including two playoff contests), Davis played at least 83% of the snaps in all but one game (a 30-point win over the Patriots). His targets nearly tripled (7.5 per game), and his production exploded. He caught eight touchdown passes over that six-game stretch. This was all as a 22-year-old.
Heading into 2022, Davis may be on the verge of a massive breakout. Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders are gone and leave behind 184 targets between them. While some of those will go to Jamison Crowder, expect a bunch to go the way of Davis. While Davis carries more risk than some of the players being drafted around him, few can match his upside as he enters his third NFL season. Do not be scared to draft him just because you are unaccustomed to seeing him go off the board so early.
So true. For example I have said for awhile now that I can't wait to see where Gabe Davis actually goes when the normal people* start drafting
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) July 13, 2022
*if you're drafting rn you are not normal and I love you for it. https://t.co/QbaFlSEB3f
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5. Devin Singletary: Lead back in the league-best offense
Let’s stick in Buffalo because we are going to want to have exposure to the offense that Vegas has as the favorite to lead the NFL in scoring this season. The best fantasy value on the Bills may be Devin Singletary. While he has finally moved into the Top 100 in ADP (98.4), Singletary still stands out as a bargain option for those drafting early.
As with Gabriel Davis, Singletary’s usage changed drastically late in the season and could presage a major breakout in 2022. Through the first 13 weeks of the 2021 season, Singletary never played more than 75% of the snaps. In fact, he played less than 50% of the snaps in 8-of-12 weeks to start the season. However, down the stretch, it was all Singletary. He played at least 82% of the snaps in 5-of-7 games to end the season and played every single offensive snap of the overtime thriller against the Chiefs to end the season.
The Bills backfield gained clarity down the home stretch last season.
— Spectrum News 1 BUF (@SPECNews1BUF) July 13, 2022
Devin Singletary pushed ahead as the team's lead back, seeing double-digit carries in 8 of the final 9 games, including playoffs. https://t.co/mLF9TEXIDI
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While the arrival of James Cook could cut into his third-down snaps, everything points towards Singletary again dominating the snaps, carries, and goal-line work.
Speaking of goal line work…after the Bills ratcheted up Singletary’s usage late in the season, he became one of the league leaders in touchdowns. Over his final six games (including playoffs), Singletary scored nine touchdowns. There could be a lot more where that came from if this Bills offense really does lead the NFL in points this season.
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