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Dynasty Startup Draft Strategy
The Price of 2023 First-Rounders
What 2022 rookie pick would you consider trading to acquire a 2023 first-rounder? What is the minimum 2022 rookie pick you would need straight up to trade away your 2023 first-rounder?
Jason Wood
This is a fairly weak rookie class, so I would give up 1.04 or later for the dice roll of a 2023 first-rounder without knowing how late the pick would be.
Andy Hicks
Saying 2022 is a weak rookie class may look stupid by the end of the season. Every year guys take advantage of their opportunities. Due to the wage structures, rookies are more important to a roster's structure than ever. As veteran wages skyrocket, especially at quarterback and wide receiver, getting value for an NFL team depends on rookies or young players. I may be an outlier in taking what’s in front of me rather than what’s around the corner, but I will value the 2022 class much higher than most. I would be a prime target for another manager looking at 2023. In doing so, my 2022 roster will be stronger.
Dan Hindery
This is a different answer for Superflex vs. non-Superflex. The 2022 quarterback class is very weak, while the 2023 group looks like it should be above average. That will tip the value scales much more heavily towards the 2023 picks in Superflex. Unless I'm absolutely certain my team would be picking very late in the 2023 rookie draft, I would not trade my 2023 first-round pick for anything less than the 2022 1.01 in a Superflex league.
In a non-Superflex, the 2023 picks should carry less of a premium. If I have a good team that is unlikely to be picking at the top of the 2023 draft, I’d consider moving my 2023 first-rounder for a pick in the 1.06-to-1.08 range, especially after we have seen Chris Olave and George Pickens get off to hot starts in camp. The 2023 class could end up being top-heavy in non-Superflex with a handful of elite players and then a drop-off. Thus, a mid-first-round 2022 pick should be comparable to a mid-first-round 2023 pick.
Christian Williams
The 2022 class isn't weak, per se, but the positional value should be much more substantial in 2023. The 2023 quarterback and running back classes look loaded with talent, which are currently the positions with the most scarcity in the dynasty landscape. Because of that, I would be comfortable trading my 2022 1.03 for a 2023 first-round pick, with just Breece Hall and Drake London causing hesitancy at the 1.01 and 1.02.
Jordan McNamara
I'd be interested in trading a 2022 pick for a 2023 pick after Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, and Drake London are off the board. I think everyone is trying to do this type of deal, and few have given a future first to trade into the first round after that range. While this class is considered poor, I think the back half of the first round through the second round is lucrative this year. I think the better play is to trade down from the middle of the first round this year to net multiple picks this year, in the late first through the second round. This strategy may give you multiple shots at players that could draw a future first-round pick during the season.
Jeff Bell
I would trade the 1.02 for a 2023 1st if I had a good indication the team I’m dealing with had a chance to finish with a mid-to-high pick. I would need the 1.01 to trade away my 2023 1st. People must understand how valuable these picks will continue to become as we see this talented 2023 class perform.
Gary Davenport
There are quite a few variables here. How does my team look this year? If I feel like I'm a wide receiver away from contending for a playoff spot and I can flip next year's first for Chris Olave, then I'll do it—again, I don't expect to have an especially high pick in 2023. But if I'm rebuilding and my quarterback situation is poor, I might punt a relatively high pick in 2022, try to find a stopgap and add an extra pick in next year's draft. But again, I tend to trade more for the present than the future. Patience isn't a strength of mine.
Will Grant
I'm not very excited by any of the rookies in this draft. Unless I had one of the top three picks this season, I'd be willing to trade for a 2023 first-rounder straight up.
Kevin Coleman
I would move any 2022 first if Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Drake London were off the board in my rookie drafts. The only way I’m moving off my 2023 first in a rookie draft is if I could get the 1.01 and select Breece Hall.
Ben Cummins
If the specific 2023 first-round selection was already known, my answer would be I’d consider trading all 2022 rookie picks, including the 1.01. But since there is some uncertainty in how the 2023 rookie pick selection order will play out, I will say I’d start considering trading at the 1.03 this season. That allows Breece Hall and Drake London, my top two 2022 players, to become cornerstone players for franchises immediately.
Craig Lakins
I'd draw a line in the sand after Pick 4. After Breece Hall, Drake London, and your preference of the remaining rookie WRs, I'd prefer to wait on the unknown of the 2023 1st. Anyone else in this year's rookie draft would be unlikely to surpass what's available next year.