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What 2022 rookie pick would you consider trading to acquire a 2023 first-rounder? What is the minimum 2022 rookie pick you would need straight up to trade away your 2023 first-rounder?
This is a fairly weak rookie class, so I would give up 1.04 or later for the dice roll of a 2023 first-rounder without knowing how late the pick would be.
Saying 2022 is a weak rookie class may look stupid by the end of the season. Every year guys take advantage of their opportunities. Due to the wage structures, rookies are more important to a roster's structure than ever. As veteran wages skyrocket, especially at quarterback and wide receiver, getting value for an NFL team depends on rookies or young players. I may be an outlier in taking what’s in front of me rather than what’s around the corner, but I will value the 2022 class much higher than most. I would be a prime target for another manager looking at 2023. In doing so, my 2022 roster will be stronger.
This is a different answer for Superflex vs. non-Superflex. The 2022 quarterback class is very weak, while the 2023 group looks like it should be above average. That will tip the value scales much more heavily towards the 2023 picks in Superflex. Unless I'm absolutely certain my team would be picking very late in the 2023 rookie draft, I would not trade my 2023 first-round pick for anything less than the 2022 1.01 in a Superflex league.
In a non-Superflex, the 2023 picks should carry less of a premium. If I have a good team that is unlikely to be picking at the top of the 2023 draft, I’d consider moving my 2023 first-rounder for a pick in the 1.06-to-1.08 range, especially after we have seen Chris Olave and George Pickens get off to hot starts in camp. The 2023 class could end up being top-heavy in non-Superflex with a handful of elite players and then a drop-off. Thus, a mid-first-round 2022 pick should be comparable to a mid-first-round 2023 pick.
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