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With a good chunk of hosting platforms and dynasty leagues having Week 12 (or Week 13) trading deadlines, this season-ending installment focuses on where we have been and wherre we are going for the dynasty trade market in 2022 and 2023.
*All trades are Superflex unless stated otherwise*
Biggest Lesson: Profile Hunting and Patience
Justin Herbert and Tom Brady as profile buys and Justin Fields as an explore-the-market profile sell are three examples of this series during the 2022 season. While it may not seem like much, Herbert's dip from QB2, even ahead of Patrick Mahomes II as a peak in the offseason, to now being accessible at QB4/5/6 is a notable acquisition period. Tom Brady will offer value as long as he returns to play in 2023 and, as a free agent, he will get to choose his situation as he did with Tampa Bay a few seasons ago. Brady, like the late-career profile discounts for Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, and others, is a profit-printing machine without an off-season retirement as their dynasty trade market essentially assumes erosion and retirement by this point.
2023 Preview: Tight Target Player Focus
Be calculating and specific with quarterback targets: think "been there and done that" without paying the full fare of their profile thanks to a down year or optics of late. The two names to stand out as early 2023 target candidates (trading and startups) are Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott. Both are firmly in their prime with a streak of high-level and confidence-building play previously. Both are in the QB10-15 range at present. They may rise with a spike of production late in the season, but anything below QB5/6/7 value in drafts and trading offers enough value to change the course of your long-term contending in premium formats dynasty leagues.
Biggest Lesson: Rational Profiling
It can be easy to get swept up into running production (or a lack thereof) in the midst of lineup season (aka the regular season). Leonard Fournette was a buy recommendation when Tampa Bay was in a malaise early in the season, even more than recent weeks. All of their passing game weapons were notably missing time, and quizzically, their running backs were not seeing enough optimal touches. Fournette was already dipping in market value, but the 27-year-old bounced back until his Week 12 missed game due to injury. A reminder that Fournette is under contract and a tough cut for Tampa Bay in the offseason. Expect Fournette on the roster, along with the other relevant skill position names except, possibly, Tom Brady. Fournette, in the RB30+ range, is poised to be a dynasty value again this offseason.
Buying Travis Etienne as he was still in a committee with James Robinson (and on the wrong side of the Jacksonville split) early in the season was another recommendation. Even in the RB5-10 range, there was value at the time to acquire Etienne. Since Robinson has been traded a la Nick Chubb pushing Carlos Hyde in Cleveland out of town years ago in a swift change of role. Etienne is easily viewed in the top-five of dynasty running backs now and for 2023.
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