Eyes of the Guru IDP Info, Part 27: Philadelphia

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If yards allowed were the only consideration, the Eagles would have been a pretty good defense in 2021, finishing eleventh against the pass and ninth versus the run. That is about the only good thing there is to say about last year’s performance. Philadelphia was dead last in completion percentage at almost 70%. The 28 passing scores they allowed ranked 20th, and the 18 rushing touchdowns ranked 23rd. Only the Falcons recorded fewer sacks, and four teams had fewer takeaways.

In situations like this, teams often throw numbers at the problem by adding a slew of cheap veteran free agents and middle-round picks. Philadelphia took a different approach. They did not add a ton of bodies. Instead, they addressed every level of the defense with high-profile veterans and/or early-round draft picks. On paper, this unit looks much improved heading into 2022.

Defensive Linemen

The interior line was not the problem last year. The tackle position produced 15 of the team’s 29 sacks and five of their 16 takeaways. In Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox, Philadelphia has one of the league’s outstanding interior tandems. They are both hard-to-move big men that play the run tough and are athletic enough to contribute to the pass rush.

Hargrave is coming off the best statistical season of his career. He had some good ones with the Steelers in 2018 and 2019, but last year’s 62 total tackles and 8 sacks were both career-highs for the six-year veteran. Those numbers were enough to make Hargrave the number 17 defensive lineman and the number 6 tackle in 2021. There is reason to believe he could be even better going forward.

Hargrave was far less productive in his first season with the Eagles, going 16-22-4.5 in 2020. His slow start had much to do with a pectoral injury that caused him to miss some time early and had an effect on his play for much of the season. He was bothered by a sore shoulder over the second half of last year, fueling concerns about durability.

The reason for my optimism is how Hargrave started last year. Over the first seven games, he was 16-23-6 with a forced fumble and an average of 12.6 points. There is also the consideration of position. He turned in two strong seasons with the Steelers while playing nose tackle in their 3-4. With Cox handling the 1-technique duties, Hargrave has worked mostly at the more productive 3-technique with the Eagles. If he can stay out of the trainer’s room, I believe last year’s production will be the beginning of a trend rather than a career outlier.

Early in his career, Fletcher Cox was an IDP stud. In 2015 he racked up 71 combined tackles, 9.5 sacks, and 5 takeaways and was a top-ten lineman. Throughout most of his career, Cox has been a factor for managers in leagues that require interior linemen. As recently as 2020, he was the eleventh-ranked tackle. He is not all that old, turning 31 last December, but there are some signs that Cox may not be the player he once was. He has been an iron man, missing very few games over ten seasons. Regardless of the coaching staff in charge, Cox has not come off the field much, which means there is a lot of mileage on his body. Just last year he played 739 snaps in 14 games.

While his high volume of snaps is circumstantial evidence, other factors must be considered. Cox saw his production drop sharply last year to 33 total stops and 3.5 sacks. Both of those statistics represent low points in his career numbers. Maybe the most significant sign is the Eagles drafting of his heir apparent, Jordan Davis, in the first round this spring.

Another interesting note is that Cox is in the final year of his contract, so maybe the writing is on the wall here. There is still fuel in the tank so even if it is not with the Eagles, he is likely to be playing somewhere in 2023. He may not be the same dominating player he once was but is still plenty good enough to be an NFL starter for a while longer.

Many scouts and draftniks touted Davis as a younger, bigger version of Cox. I like the comparison to Haloti Ngata by NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein better. At 6-foot-6 and 341 pounds, Davis is huge and powerful. Teams didn’t even try to run up the middle against Ngata; that is what Davis will bring to the field. He is not going to make plays outside the tackles and his most effective pass rush is to throw blockers in at the quarterback.

Davis is not going to be on the field in many passing situations and will be double-teamed on every running play that is not designed to go outside. Just as it was at Georgia, he will have a considerable impact on the field but it will not show up brightly on the stat sheet. Anyone that drafts this young man with visions of Fletcher Cox-like numbers will be disappointed.

Philadelphia made no significant additions at defensive end, so they will count on the return of longtime starter Brandon Graham from injury to provide a spark. Graham tore his Achilles in week two, missing the rest of last season. The twelve-year veteran has been a mainstay on the edge since becoming a starter in 2012 and, except for a few years when he was stuck as an outside linebacker in a 3-4, has been a dependable DL2 for IDP managers.

He has never reached double-digit sacks in a season, but from 2017 through 2020, Graham averaged 33-12- 7.5 and 3 turnovers. He claimed to be past the rehab portion of his recovery and working on conditioning in April. Graham is expected to be ready when veterans report to training camp. The question is, will he be the same player at age 34 and coming off a major injury? The jury is still out on that, but in the meantime, Graham is worthy of a late-round shot as a DL3 with a little upside.

With Graham on the shelf, Josh Sweat joined Derek Barnett as the starting defensive ends last year. This trio will once again make up the rotation on the edge but it will be interesting to see who starts opposite Graham. Before 2021 it was Barnett in that spot, but he has been outplayed by Sweat in each of the past two seasons.

Calling Barnett a bust would be a bit harsh. If he were a third or fourth-round pick, his 21 sacks over five seasons would be viewed differently, but Barnett was the 14th overall selection in 2017. Both the Eagles and fantasy managers keep waiting for a break-out season that never comes. When his shot at the spotlight came last year, Barnett choked, going 19-27-2. As the great Bill Parcells once said, "when someone shows you who they are, believe them." At this point, it is time to accept that Barnett is an average NFL defensive end with a ceiling of about 40-45 combined tackles and six or so sacks.

Sweat was a fourth-round pick in 2018 and has been the third wheel at defensive end since his second season. He was fairly productive in that role, recording four and a half sacks in 2019. In 2020 he took another step, putting up 38 combined tackles, 6 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles on 421 snaps. Sweat didn’t exactly seize the opportunity last year, but he did prove to be a dependable option. His seven-and-a-half sacks were second-most on the team, and his mark of 19-26-7.5 with a forced fumble and 4 batted passes in 14 games as a starter were enough to make him a decent DL2. There are no pro-bowls or sack titles in his future, but if the coaching staff recognizes that he is a starter, Sweat can be a solid contributor for us.

The other two members of the defensive line that are likely to see a decent amount of action are second-year pros, Milton Williams and Tarron Jackson. Both had fairly significant roles as rookies. Milton saw a few snaps at defensive end on early downs, but much of his 495 snaps were on the inside, particularly in passing situations. Jackson worked his way into a timeshare with Ryan Kerrigan as the third defensive end. Both players could see bigger roles down the road, with Cox possibly being in his final year with the team and Barnett set to become a free agent after the 2023 season.

• DE Brandon Graham – Low-end DL2 or quality depth if healthy
• DE Josh Sweat – Watch list player with low DL2 potential if he starts
• DE Derek Barnett – Marginal value with a DL3 ceiling
• DE Tarron Jackson – has some long-term potential
• DT Fletcher Cox – Low DT2 with marginal upside
• DT Javon Hargrave – Low-end DT1 with top-five upside
• DT Jordan Davis – Marginal box score production expected
• DT Milton Williams – Deep/injury sleeper

Linebackers

Those who watched this year’s draft on NFL Network saw a young Eagles fan summarize the team’s linebacker situation on live TV when he pleaded, “For the love of God, Howie (Roseman), get us a linebacker”! The general manager did just that when Nakobe Dean fell into their lap in the third round. All that remains now is to sort out the rest of the puzzle.

The rest of the puzzle consists of health issues with Dean and how everyone will fit in terms of positions. Most teams had Dean as a first-round talent but he fell to the third due to injury concerns. He battled through several issues while at Georgia, including a sore ankle, a meniscus problem, and a torn labrum that he showed toughness by playing through at the end of the 2020 season. The big one, however, was the pectoral injury Dean suffered while working out in preparation for the combine.

The pectoral injury was initially reported as a strain, but reports by several national insiders, including Ian Rapoport, claimed it was more serious and surgery was an option. Dean and his camp insisted it was not that bad and decided against surgery, leaving concerns among teams that 2022 could end up being a redshirt season for Dean. The injury cloud is still hanging over Dean, but he is just using it as shade so far. He participated in both rookie camp and OTAs and is expected to suit up for training camp with no limitations.

When it comes to where everyone will line up, some early speculation is that Dean will play on the weak side with T.J. Edwards holding onto the middle linebacker spot. While that remains a possibility, it was not what the team showed us during OTAs when Dean saw action in the middle with the starters and Kyzir White lined up on the weak side. Dean was drafted to play middle linebacker and be the centerpiece of this defense. If everyone remains healthy, that is what I expect to see come September.

When it comes to production potential, Dean could be a beast right out of the gate. Over the last few years, we have seen strong numbers from lesser players at the Eagles' middle and weak-side positions. The perfect example is Alex Singleton, who averaged more than eleven points per game in 2020 and 2021. It would not be a surprise to see Dean land firmly among the top 20 as a rookie.

The Eagles like to keep two linebackers on the field in a lot of nickel sets. Singleton was the best IDP option in recent years but Edwards also averaged more than 10.5 points per game in 2021. Be it Edwards in the middle with Dean on the weak side or Dean in the middle and White on the weak side, we are likely to get a pair of fantasy-friendly linebackers out of this team in 2022.

White was a starter over much of his four seasons with the Chargers. He is undersized at 216 pounds but has the skill set many teams are now looking for on the weak side. As a converted college safety, coverage is his strong suit, but White has the speed and range to chase down ball carriers all over the field. He is not known as a big hitter but is a sound tackler that will get guys on the ground. To get an idea of his IDP potential, we have to look at White’s 2021 season. He started every game as the Chargers’ weak inside linebacker, posting a stat line of 89-54-1 with 3 takeaways and 3 pass breakups, and was the fantasy game’s eighth-ranked linebacker.

The final piece of the linebacker puzzle is Haason Reddick. Everyone is calling him a strong side linebacker because, by definition, that is what he will be, but make no mistake, he is paid to rush the passer. Reddick is not going to be a typical throw-back, smash-mouth strong-side backer. He will line up on the strong side most of the time on early downs, but when it is time to go after the quarterback, all bets are off. Reddick will move around looking for weaknesses to exploit and/or will be up on the line as an extra edge rusher.

It took Reddick a while to get his career going. His first three years with the Cardinals produced modest tackle totals with seven and a half sacks. Most of his struggles came from a poor coaching decision that had him miscast as a middle linebacker. When they finally came to their senses and moved him to the edge, it was too little too late for the rising star. Reddick racked up 62 total tackles, 12.5 sacks, and forced 5 fumbles before flipping the Cardinals organization the bird on his way to play defensive end for Carolina, where he was the fantasy game’s number eight lineman in 2021.

Reddick has 24 sacks and 8 turnovers in two seasons as an edge defender. His tackle totals have been strong as well, at least for a defensive end. The problem is, for most of us, he will not be a defensive end in 2022. With the move to Philadelphia came a change to linebacker, whose value will be severely handicapped.

With the addition of not one but likely three new starters at linebacker and veterans Edwards and Davion Taylor serving as backups, that young man that pleaded with Howie Roseman to get a linebacker should be pleased.

• MLB Nakobe Dean – Possible D.R.O.Y. candidate with an LB3 floor and LB1 potential
• SLB Haason Reddick – Strong starter in big-play based leagues
• WLB Kyzir White – LB3 floor with high LB2 upside, providing he starts
• MLB/SLB T.J. Edwards – LB3 potential if he lands and keeps a starting job
• MLB/WLB Davion Taylor – No impact
• SLB Kyron Johnson – Developmental rookie
• SLB Patrick Johnson – Roster bubble player

Defensive Backs

The Philadelphia secondary was not a complete overhaul like the second level, but it received a facelift. Longtime starter, Rodney McLeod, is gone, so Anthony Harris moves into the free safety spot with former San Francisco starter Jaquiski Tartt coming on board to play at strong safety. At this point, it is hard to say if the safety position is upgraded, but it will have a different look.

Both McLeod and Harris are versatile players with skill sets that lean toward free safety. Harris spent his first three seasons as a backup in Minnesota before finally landing a starting role in 2019. Other than 2019 when he accounted for six interceptions, Harris’s career has been quiet from a statistical perspective. Playing free safety in Philadelphia is not going to change that.

No one has ever mistaken Tartt for a free safety. At 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds, he is a physical box safety that is decent in coverage situations but relishes the run support role. He was a starter for San Francisco over most of his seven years there, at least when he was not injured. Tartt has dealt with several issues over the years, but his biggest nemesis has been a chronically sore shoulder.

Tartt showed some fantasy potential early in his career. He would tease us with a few good outings and then miss a string of games or practically vanish from the box score for a while when nursing the sore shoulder. After two or three years of this, IDP managers threw in the towel and moved on. If he can make it through a full season, there is some potential for Tartt to put up decent numbers. That said, he has never played a full slate of games at the pro level and there is no reason to believe he will start now.

Both Marcus Epps and K’Von Wallace made starts for the team last year. They will compete for the third safety role and provide solid veteran depth when Tartt misses time.

The corner position got a significant boost with the addition of James Bradberry, arguably the best free agency had to offer. He is a big physical press corner that matches up well with bigger receivers and plays with enough savvy to get the job done against speed guys. Bradberry falls a little shore of elite status but is a clear upgrade that can help the Eagles in a division that has receivers like CeeDee Lamb, Kenny Golladay, and Terry McLaurin.

Bradberry was a non-factor for IDP managers over his two seasons with the Giants, but there is some solid production in his background. If not for the three games he missed as a rookie in 2016. His career would have opened with four consecutive seasons of 60+ combined tackles with at least three takeaways and double-digit passes defended. Considering he is replacing Avonte Maddox who had 72 combined tackles, 3 takeaways, and 9 pass breakups, and was a decent CB2 last year, the chances of Bradberry putting up useful numbers seem good.

Darius Slay returns as the other starting corner. In contrast to Bradberry, Slay is a smaller, speedier corner with excellent mechanics. He can play the physical game in press man-to-man if called upon, but his game's strength matches up with the opponent's deep threats. Between them, Bradberry and Slay are a strong duo of outside corners that should balance their different skill sets well.

A glance at Slay’s overall numbers from last season might give a false sense of value. He ranked tenth among corners with almost 150 points, but nearly 60% of those points came in four big games that included three defensive scores. Those are something we can not expect him to repeat.

With the addition of Bradberry, Maddox will slide into the slot corner role where he should be a good fit for his team but not very helpful to ours. Last year’s fourth-round pick Zech McPhearson is the favorite for a role in dime packages, with several other young players competing for the remaining roster spots.

• SS Jaquiski Tartt – Could put up decent numbers until he is hurt again
• FS Anthony Harris – No Impact
• SS Marcus Epps – Injury sleeper with marginal upside
• FS K.Von Wallace – Injury sleeper with limited upside
• CB Darius Slay – No impact
• CB James Bradberry – Probable CB2
• CB Avonte Maddox – Injury sleeper with low CB2 ceiling
• CB Zech McPhearson – No impact expected
• CB Josiah Scott – No impact

Heading into the home stretch with five to go, Up next, the Washington Commanders.

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