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Footballguys hosts multiple projectors for offensive players. Often, their opinions on players are fairly similar.
But sometimes, they have differences. Stark differences.
We asked them to back up those projections, and they have.
Here are two tight ends whose projections vary.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia
Goedert has averaged four touchdowns per season, but you have to project a higher number this year given his unquestioned role as the No. 1 tight end in Philadelphia. Goedert dealt with Zach Ertz from 2019 through half of 2021, but he's the top dog now and has absolutely no competition for snaps. Goedert won't be the top target -- that's A.J. Brown's role -- but he'll be the second-most targeted receiver, for sure.
Pass volume is coming up, but a massive target hog is coming with Brown. I think Goedert is basically fine, not too high or too low.
Goedert should be very efficient on his targets, but with A.J. Brown in town, the targets could vary greatly game to game. George Kittle's situation isn't that different, but he has a lot longer track record of taking over games than Goedert. I won't talk anyone out of Goedert at ADP, but don't expect consistency unless Brown or Devonta Smith miss time.
I see fewer targets for Goedert this season with more emphasis on throwing the ball outside to the wide receivers. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Quez Watkins will all be on the field in three-receiver sets. I don't see Goedert as more physically talented than Pat Freiermuth, Zach Ertz, or Dawson Knox, all of whom are typically drafted after Goedert. I'd be just as happy with Irv Smith, who is also going later.
While there is room to trend more pass-heavy, we know Philadelphia will be one of the more run-heavy teams in the league. And with the addition of A.J. Brown, the prognosis for a strong target share definitely takes a hit. Further, Brown directly threatens Goedert's bread-and-butter red zone work.
Noah Fant, Seattle
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