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Footballguys hosts multiple projectors for offensive players. Often, their opinions on players are fairly similar.
But sometimes, they have differences. Stark differences.
We asked them to back up those projections, and they have.
Here are three wide receivers whose projections vary.
WR Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh
| Projector | Games | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | Recs | ReYards | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBG Consensus | 16.2 | 4.0 | 30 | 0.0 | 91.0 | 1022 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 3.0 | 20 | 0.0 | 89.0 | 1050 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
| Anthony Amico | 17.0 | 4.3 | 39 | 0.0 | 86.7 | 944 | 6.8 | 0.0 |
| Sigmund Bloom | 17.0 | 4.0 | 33 | 0.0 | 89.0 | 1018 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 17.0 | 4.0 | 20 | 0.0 | 84.2 | 993 | 6.0 | 0.9 |
| Justin Freeman | 15.0 | 4.1 | 29 | 0.1 | 86.7 | 964 | 5.9 | 0.0 |
Jason Wood
I expect the Steelers to struggle this year with either Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett; I'm not someone who sees the switch from Ben Roethlisberger as an instant boost. With a smaller pie, and George Pickens taking up a bigger piece than last year's No. 3 receiver, Johnson will see fewer targets, receptions, and touchdowns this season.
Anthony Amico
Money talks. Steelers didn't want to pay Johnson top dollar, gave him a relatively discounted extension. Big Ben not being able to throw it downfield benefitted Johnson the most as an underneath/intermediate player. Expecting Trubisky/Pickett to get the ball down the field more to Claypool and Pickens. Just not matching on volume here with other projectors.
Sigmund Bloom
The emergence of George Pickens can't be good for Johnson, who is the team's #1 receiver. This should be a conservative and low-volume pass offense, which might help Johnson's volume, but to justify his ADP with the likelihood of a low average depth of target, he'll need to catch at least 100 balls. The Steelers pass offense probably won't be good enough for him to deliver excess value.
Justin Freeman
Johnson secured a contract extension this summer but gets a new - and likely less accurate - quarterback. Anytime a new quarterback comes to town, target expectations should be reset. On top of that, Chase Claypool will be stepping into the slot, and talented rookie George Pickens should command his fair share of targets.
WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati
| Projector | Games | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | Recs | ReYards | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBG Consensus | 16.2 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.0 | 87.7 | 1292 | 8.3 | 0.0 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 1175 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
| Anthony Amico | 2.3 | 13 | 0 | 0.0 | 103.0 | 1460 | 8.8 | 0.0 |
| Sigmund Bloom | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 89.0 | 1261 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 81.9 | 1173 | 6.6 | 0.8 |
| Justin Freeman | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 91.2 | 1345 | 8.3 | 0.0 |
Jason Wood
My 2022 projections are a slight bump from last year's excellent season. The Bengals were absurdly efficient last year, and that's unlikely to happen again, but I also see Higgins playing 16 games versus 14 last season. The net is a modest bump across the board from last year (but fewer fantasy points per game).
Anthony Amico
Higgins should be step-for-step with Chase in target share. Career efficiency is usable given situational stability. Higgins' projection is pretty straightforward in my opinion.
Sigmund Bloom
Did you know Higgins was basically neck and neck with Ja'Marr Chase in points per game in PPR leagues before Chase blew up in Week 17? This offense is closer to a 1 and 1A than fantasy rankings indicate. As long as Joe Burrow stays healthy, Higgins should produce like a fantasy WR1.
Maurile Tremblay
I like Tee Higgins as a player, but I don't see his slice of the Bengals' passing-game pie increasing this year. He's still competing with Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd for targets on the outside, and I think Hayden Hurst could attract more targets than C.J. Uzomah did at tight end. As long as Chase remains healthy, I see Higgins as having a limited ceiling.
Justin Freeman
Tee Higgins grades out beautifully for me in a loveable Cincinnati offense. While Ja'Marr Chase (rightfully) garners the spotlight, Higgins ran near-even with him week-to-week in targets. If you're a Burrow believer, don't be afraid that he can support two WR1s in this offense.
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