Passing Matchups Week 10

Photo: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports

Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.

Top 5 Passing Matchups

Buffalo vs Minnesota

The Bills certainly hiccupped last week, with Josh Allen folding in the face of an angry Jets defense. Battered all day by a ferocious pass rush, Allen’s surprising final stat line (18 of 34 for 205 yards, 2 interceptions) let down the fantasy world. And it’s worth noting that it wasn’t Allen’s first poor performance of the year; rather, it was the third time he’s fallen below 220 yards. Still, every quarterback sees that kind of variance, and Allen remains as likely as any to erupt on a given week. Even with those three duds factored in, he still sits third in yards per throw and tied for second in touchdown rate. Allen has the green light to dominate the ball for one of the league’s best offenses, and he throws to a supporting cast that’s jam-packed with mismatches. Top receiver Stefon Diggs even found a way to produce in last week’s debacle, catching 5 balls for 93 yards. While Gabe Davis and tight end Dawson Knox struggle with consistency, Diggs has cleared 90 yards in four straight games and six of eight overall.

The Vikings’ pass defense was shaky even before it lost starting cornerback Cameron Dantzler last Sunday. Dantzler, an up-and-down but talented cover man, looks iffy for Week 10 after spraining his ankle against Washington. Future Hall of Famer Patrick Peterson and two-time All-Pro safety Harrison Smith have enjoyed strong bounce-back seasons, but they can cover only so much ground on their own. If Dantzler sits as expected, the 32-year-old Peterson and the 33-year-old Smith will be leaned on even more. That damaged depth is awful news as the Bills come to town, armed with a wide array of weapons that stretch the field both horizontally and vertically. Even if Peterson can deliver a shutdown performance on one side, guys like Chandon Sullivan and rookie Akayleb Evans will be pressed into heavy roles against Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and the rest. All in all, it’s hard to find any matchups here that don’t tilt in the Bills’ favor. Unless the mediocre pass rush can truly disturb Josh Allen, this unit is likely in for a long day.

Kansas City vs Jacksonville

The Chiefs continue to find ways to manufacture passing production, explosiveness or not. Even when cornered and forced into a dink-and-dunk mode, Patrick Mahomes II rarely fails to produce. He’s now topped 290 yards in four straight games (averaging 375), with 10 touchdowns along the way. Most importantly, those four big lines have come in a variety of game scripts and types. Simply put, the Chiefs go as Mahomes goes, so they put all their offensive eggs in his basket every week. He throws early and often, he throws near the goal line, and he throws to several capable playmakers. Travis Kelce remains the top weapon and fantasy’s premier tight end. He’s topped 90 yards in four of his last five games, and in that pesky fifth, he still found the end zone 4 times. But don’t sleep on JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman, who leads the way out wide. Over the last two games, they’ve combined to claim 32% of Mahomes’ targets, turning them into 27 catches, 323 yards, and 3 touchdowns.

The Jaguars’ defensive rebuild motors on, slowly but surely, which is great news for a moribund franchise. But in the meantime, the secondary remains badly undermanned and easy to beat with regular volume. They’ve given up strong games to struggling passers Matt Ryan (42 of 58 for 389 yards, 3 touchdowns), Russell Wilson (18-30-252-1), and Derek Carr (21-36-259-2). Elite wide receivers like Michael Pittman (13 catches, 134 yards) and Davante Adams (10-146-2) have had their way with the Jaguars’ shaky cornerback group, which still relies on low-graded veteran retreads. It’s been some time since they’ve drafted, developed, and kept a worthwhile cover man, so guys like Darious Williams and Tevaughn Campbell have to dominate snaps. Most importantly, they’ve struggled badly against the better tight ends they’ve faced, with Dallas Goedert (75 yards), Greg Dulcich (87), and even Foster Moreau (42) finding ground up the seams. Travis Kelce steps into a huge advantage against these overmatched linebackers and safeties.

Denver at Tennessee

The Broncos are no one’s idea of fantasy dynamite here in 2022. But an NFL season is much more a marathon than a sprint, and there’s optimism to take from their last outing. Just before the bye, Russell Wilson threw for a solid 252 yards (8.4 per attempt) in beating the Jaguars. Most importantly, he hit on a handful of splash throws downfield, including another deep ball to K.J. Hamler and a short touchdown to Jerry Jeudy. His supporting cast is deep, and he’s capable of mixing things up; top wideout Courtland Sutton wasn’t even needed in last week’s upswing (1 catch for 13 yards). Sutton, Jeudy, and impressive rookie tight end Greg Dulcich make for an imposing trio, and all three can post big lines on any given week. Patience is a virtue, and Wilson is a Hall of Fame passer. Fantasy players who have kept their eyes on the prize could be richly rewarded in a generous Week 10 matchup.

The Titans performed better than expected Sunday night against Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs. They kept the pressure on all night, refusing to allow easy completions or anything of note downfield. Ultimately, though, they could not keep Mahomes in the pocket and his receivers away from the chains. Mahomes turned his 68 throws into 446 yards, and he’s far from the first passer to overachieve in this matchup. He was the fifth to top 300 his season, on a list that includes the likes of Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, and Derek Carr. Opponents have had little trouble springing holes in the Tennessee secondary, which still lacks proven talent despite numerous early-round picks spent there. Cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Roger McCreary are inconsistent at best on the outside, while journeyman Terrance Mitchell provides no real help behind them. But perhaps the biggest weak spots lie over the middle, where even stud safety Kevin Byard is struggling to keep up. Last week it was Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster dominating the short middle routes and winning after the catch; they combined to turn 29 targets into 194 yards. That’s a great sign for the Broncos’ wideouts and for emerging tight end Greg Dulcich.