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We asked our staff to make a call on a tight end. Who will surprise - either good or bad? Here are their answers.
Anthony Amico
Mark Andrews will outscore Travis Kelce.
Andrews had a dominant finish to the 2021 season — albeit with Tyler Huntley under center — and yet still finds himself almost a full round behind Kelce, who turns 33 this season and likely has more aggregate target competition than he did with Tyreek Hill in town. The Ravens have made it clear they want to get into more big sets this year. They drafted two tight ends and traded away Marquise Brown without replacing him. This should be largely a two-man passing game between Andrews and Rashod Bateman. That kind of target concentration has Andrews primed to hit a new level of production.
Phil Alexander
Kyle Pitts will break the record for receiving yards in a season by a tight end.
After becoming the first tight end since Mike Ditka in 1961 to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie, Pitts is ready to make a year-two leap to heights never before seen at the position. Atlanta's wretched defense should skew the offense pass-heavy most weeks, and their schedule includes potential shootout game scripts with the Rams, Buccaneers (twice), Bengals, Chargers, and Cardinals. With only a rookie wide receiver to compete with for targets, it's conceivable Pitts can eclipse Travis Kelce's record 1,416 receiving yards (2020) and snatch fantasy's No.1 tight end crown. Failing a historic season, Pitts should have no problem repeating last year's 1,000-yard campaign and return value at his ADP thanks to natural touchdown progression. Draft him early and often.
Jason Wood
Brevin Jordan will have a dominant season.
The odds say Brevin Jordan will fail to put up numbers worthy of serious consideration in 12-team leagues. But of all the waiver-wire or late-round tight ends being drafted, Jordan is one I think could come out of nowhere and put up a dominant season. Jordan was one of the most coveted tight end prospects coming out of high school and became a starter as a true freshman at the University of Miami. Unfortunately, the team's poor play around him and a shoulder injury kept Jordan from having a massive breakout. Although his rookie numbers aren't eye-popping (20 receptions, 178 yards, 3 touchdowns), remember they came in half a season as he was inactive for the first two months. With a Texans offense devoid of proven difference makers outside of Brandin Cooks, Jordan could because a focal point of a young, emerging offense.
Ryan Weisse
Cole Kmet will not break out as most suggest and will instead regress.
In 2022, Kmet will not hit 80 targets for the season. There are many at Footballguys that love Kmet at his current draft price. While I agree there is no risk, it's good because you'll be dropping him by Week 4. The new system in Chicago is not tight-end friendly, and Kmet will struggle to come anywhere near his 2021 target total, let alone surpass it. Over the last three seasons, while new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy was in Green Bay, no single tight end totaled more than 60 targets. If Kmet can score touchdowns, he had zero last year, he could still be fantasy relevant. He is far more of a streaming option in the best possible matchups, not a weekly starter.
Gary Davenport
David Njoku will Crack the Top 8 among tight ends.
When the Browns signed Njoku to a four-year, $54.8 million extension, more than a few fans and analysts did a double-take. This year, Njoku is going to show that extension wasn't as wacky as it first looked. Njoku has the talent to be an impact player, and in the only season in which he was targeted more than 60 times (2018), he was ninth in PPR points at his position. Now he's arguably the second-best pass-catcher on the team behind Amari Cooper, and he'll play the first 11 games with a quarterback in Jacoby Brissett, who has long shown an affinity for throwing to the tight end. If you don't want to pay retail for one of the top five or six options at the position, Njoku is a late-round dart throw who will crash the party in 2022.
