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We asked our staff to make a call on a running back. Who will surprise - either good or bad? Here are their answers.
Dave Kluge
Leonard Fournette finishes as a top-five running back.
It’s bizarre that this isn’t a consensus take. Fournette is a three-down back on one of the league’s most potent offenses. Last year, Tampa Bay was third in their pace of play. Fournette’s red-zone and goal-line carries were both inside the top-10. He had the second-most targets inside the red zone. He was fourth in points per game behind Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Austin Ekeler. He led all running backs in targets per game. Not only does he see plenty of volume, but he gets the high-value touches. I’d be in on Fournette with a first-round price tag. Drafting him in the late second feels like theft.
Christian Williams
Rachaad White will finish inside the Top 30 and be a worthy flex play in PPR leagues down the stretch.
White's receiving profile during his last two years in college was among the elite, garnering a target share reminiscent of wide receiver prospects and displaying soft hands, refined routes, and fantastic after-the-catch ability. White offers more as a receiver than incumbent Leonard Fournette, and concerns over his pass blocking have been overblown. White possesses immense upside as the third-down back in a Tom Brady-led offense, which could translate to immediate fantasy production in 2022.
Phil Alexander
Jerick McKinnon will lead the Chiefs' backfield in PPR fantasy points.
The writing was on the wall for Leonard Fournette to seize control of Tampa Bay's backfield following a productive run as the team's featured back in the 2020 playoffs. McKinnon's situation entering this season is not identical to Fournette's in 2021, but it is fair to draw some comparisons.
During last year's playoffs, McKinnon handled about 15 touches per game and looked every bit like the explosive passing-down back the Chiefs thought they were getting when they drafted Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Patrick Mahomes II and Andy Reid are unlikely to forget what McKinnon brought to the offense when it mattered most, much like Tom Brady and Bruce Arians with Fournette the year prior.
Barring an injury to Edwards-Helaire (or Isiah Pacheco?), he's unlikely to rush the ball 10+ times per game (as he did in all three of last year's playoff appearances). But McKinnon has earned high-leverage touches in the passing game and inside the red zone -- precisely the role we should target in fantasy football, especially when it's tied to one of the league's premier offenses. McKinnon is set to serve as this year's evidence that the least expensive piece of an ambiguous backfield is usually the right one to prioritize.
Jason Wood
Edmonds will be a league-winner as he becomes the centerpiece of a run-heavy offense that perfectly suits his running style.
New head coach and play-caller Mike McDaniel is going to follow in his mentor’s footsteps and commit to one workhorse back until injuries require a swap. If Edmonds stays in the lineup, he’ll have a massive workload and be game-script proof because he’s a decent receiver, too.