The NFL's offseason has felt like playing franchise on Madden. The activity has been nearly constant, and each move seems more surprising than the last one. But how does all of this action translate to quarterback value?
We asked the Footballguys staff "Which quarterback has lost the move value this offseason?" Here's the discussion.
See quarterbacks who gained value here
Dave Kluge
At the risk of turning the entire Chiefs fanbase against me, I have to say Patrick Mahomes II. Losing Tyreek Hill is a brutal blow to the team. Mahomes now heads into 2022 with a 32-year-old Travis Kelce as his primary weapon. Newly-acquired JuJu Smith-Schuster is three years removed from his last 1,000-yard season. Clyde Edwards-Helaire's inefficiencies become more apparent seemingly every week. There's no denying that raw talent that Mahomes has, but this will be the first true test in his career as he is forced to elevate a below-average group of playmakers. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is solid, but if the Chiefs don't add another solid pass-catcher, it'll be hard to squeeze Mahomes into this year's top-five fantasy quarterbacks.
Jason Wood
Better to sell a year early than a year late. I’d bet plenty of shekels the Chiefs come out WAY ahead on this Hill trade. They now have eight picks in the first four rounds. Mahomes may well come away with his deepest, most talented receiving corps yet.
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Kevin Coleman
Is it a hot take to think that Mahomes is still in the same tier as Allen in dynasty?
Jason Wood
No. It is not.
I’m tempted to say, Baker Mayfield, because he went from starter on a Super Bowl contender to out of a job or, at best, starting on a worse team. But I’ll opt for a juicier pick and say, Aaron Rodgers. We can’t underestimate the impact Davante Adams had in that offense and, unlike the Chiefs, the Packers have very little in the alternative. Robert Tonyan Jr isn’t Travis Kelce. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is in Kansas City. And Alan Lazard is not JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Ben Cummins
Aaron Rodgers is one of the best football players of all time and the reigning back-to-back MVP. Rodgers dominated last season, ranking first in TD%, INT%, EPA per play, and Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE). Yet the losses of Davante Adams, arguably the best wide receiver in the league, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Green Bay’s clear WR2, and the lid lifter for the offense are extremely significant. Rodgers will play the majority of the 2022 season at 38 years of age and offers very little upside with his legs at this stage of his career. Rodgers will undoubtedly elevate the pass-catchers around him but even great quarterbacks benefit from talented teammates and a Packers’ depth chart currently comprised of Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers, Juwann Winfree, Malik Taylor, and Robert Tonyan Jr coming off a mid-season ACL tear doesn’t impress.
Anthony Amico
It feels quite difficult to not say Aaron Rodgers has lost the most value here, especially since he does not have a documented history of working well with rookie wideouts. The weapons are dreadful and portend a more balanced 2022 attack behind two quality backs. Efficiency, volume, and overall offensive quality (i.e. touchdowns) are all trending downward.
Andy Hicks
I have to agree with Jason and his initial comment about Baker Mayfield. From being a borderline fantasy starter on a playoff aspirant team to unwanted. At his current salary, he isn’t attractive to quarterback-needy teams like Seattle and Atlanta.
Carolina, with only Sam Darnold, has made it clear they do not want him. Some teams will have their eye on the draft instead, so it is getting to the stage where Cleveland may not be able to unload him and could conceivably have to cut him.
If an injury happens, he would be attractive, but these do not always happen.
Jeff Bell
Dak Prescott entered the 2021 season with injury questions after a shortened 2020. The helter-skelter pace of 2020 pushed him into the elite tier of quarterbacks in the summer of 2021. The season disappointed, including a seven-game run where he averaged under 16 points per game, a number in Jimmy Garoppolo territory. Now, receiver Amari Cooper and tackle La’el Collins are gone, and the team has spent most of the free agency period building a defense that ascended from horrid in 2020 to average in 2021. Add in a hesitancy to run (one rushing touchdown and one game over 21 yards) coming off the injury, and Prescott lands closer to a glorified Kirk Cousins for fantasy football than the elite air he flirted with previously.
Kevin Coleman
It's hard to admit, but Jeff is right about Dak Prescott. The team has done a poor job of building around the franchise quarterback, and he has not performed up to his ADP the past two seasons. Prescott has gone from a tier-two dynasty quarterback to around QB10 in all formats.
Jeff Haseley
Is it even plausible to say Deshaun Watson here? He is entering a team with a strong running game and sound defense. How many elite fantasy quarterbacks have that as a backdrop? If the game script does not favor passing, can we automatically assume he will top 4,500 yards simply because he has done it before? We shouldn't, no matter how good the quarterback is. How many games will Watson be forced to win with his arm this season? Will he top 400 yards rushing again? Will he play 12 games or less due to a possible suspension from the league? Will an injury pop up due to lack of play over the last year-plus? There are questions that could point to a negative result in terms of fantasy production. Did he lose value by being traded to Cleveland? It cannot be ruled out and there are scenarios that could unfold to him having a disappointing season compared to what we're used to seeing from him.
Zareh Kantzabedian
Dating back to 2017, Matt Ryan averaged out as the QB10 each year, finishing as QB3, QB15, QB3, QB9, QB13, and QB18 through that window. Last year was disastrous in Atlanta as Ryan only had rookie tight end Kyle Pitts to throw to.
He now finds himself on the Indianapolis Colts, a team that heavily emphasizes the run, where he's expected to act as a competent game manager. I think his QB18 finish in 2021 last year should be the expected range this year. For the first time in his career, I expect him to be nothing more than a middling QB2 in Superflex formats.
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