Sunday Showdown Week 5

Photo: Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports

OVERVIEW

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage, and uniqueness. Fading the highest-owned plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-owned plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You are usually going to need the slate’s top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

GAME THEORY

The Cincinnati Bengals are heading to Baltimore to take on the Ravens as 3.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 47.5. Both teams are top 10 in pass rate over expectation, but the Ravens are already thin at receiver and will be without Rashod Bateman. Conversely, J.K. Dobbins is another week removed from his knee injury after rushing in two touchdowns last week. The Ravens have been a pleasant surprise in the passing game, but this game shapes up for Baltimore to lean on the run game. Joe Burrow should have the league’s top receiver duo healthy once again this week and will be fully equipped to play keep up with Jackson. The way the pricing and game environment shapes up will lead us to Bengals-heavy builds.

INJURY ROUND-UP

Tee Higgins– Ankle – Questionable

Hayden Hurst – Groin – Questionable

Rashod Bateman– Foot – Out

CAPTAIN CONSIDERATION

1. JaMarr Chase
2. Lamar Jackson
3. Joe Burrow
4. Joe Mixon
5. Mark Andrews
6. Tee Higgins

CINCINNATI OFFENSE

QUARTERBACK

Joe Burrow $10,600 – Captain or Flex

Joe Burrow is moderately priced with a high likelihood of attempting an above-average amount of passes. In week 1 against a tough Steelers defense, he attempted 53 passes resulting in 338 yards and two touchdowns. His attempts that week are a bit skewed due to overtime but expect similar results this week with over 40 attempts. With so many strong receiving options for the Bengals and a lack thereof for the Ravens, it’s a great week to play Burrow at Captain then mix and match his pass catchers.