Through six weeks of NFL action, many players have shown us who they are. Season-long surprises such as Adam Thielen and Kyren Williams are obviously trending up. I don't need to tell you that Treylon Burks and JuJu Smith-Schuster are trending down. This article will look at players trending up in smaller samples to help you get ahead of the curve. Changes in usage and efficiency can help fantasy football managers get ahead of changes in production.
Three Up
QB Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
The Commanders offense has been quite a headache as far as fantasy goes. The usage between Brian Robinson Jr and Antonio Gibson has swung back and forth on a near-weekly basis. After solidifying himself as a must-start tight end, Logan Thomas disappeared in Week 6. Targets among wide receivers have been spread thin enough to make Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel volatile and challenging to predict. Sam Howell, however, has been the steady fantasy producer in this offense. He's scored 20-plus fantasy points in three straight games and four of his last five. It's not always pretty, and much of Howell's output is accrued during garbage time. But his 1,500 yards are the ninth-most in the NFL. His 214 pass attempts come in as the fifth-most. He's completing an impressive 67.8% of his attempts, good for 10th-best among starting quarterbacks. All this comes together to be the QB11 in fantasy, despite a 4.6-point dud in Week 3 against Buffalo. Howell has displayed a high ceiling in his first year as a starter. He will fit firmly in the discussion as a weekly back-end QB1 going forward.
RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
After a head-scratching Week 5, where Zack Moss handily out-paced Jonathan Taylor in every usage metric, the tides are shifting back toward Taylor. Many pundits reported that Taylor was milking his injury to leverage a bigger contract, but his stint on the PUP may have been well-warranted. Taylor has yet to look like himself through his first two games back, averaging a career-low 2.6 yards per carry. Given four years of hyper-efficiency, we can chalk that up to his ankle injury. He's yet to log a broken tackle or a breakaway run. But looking at snaps, routes, and opportunities in Week 6, it was nearly a 50/50 split between Moss and Taylor, despite Taylor's struggles. As this season progresses, Taylor and his $42M contract should continue to carve out a more prominent role. The last time Taylor was healthy, in 2021, he was second in the league in weighted opportunities. Moss has proven to be a formidable backfield mate, but expect the usage sliders to continue moving in Taylor's favor. He is a strong buy-low for anyone panicking over his current production.
WR Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Calvin Ridley was expected to be the Jaguars' WR1 in 2023, but Christian Kirk is outpacing him in targets, receptions, yards, and fantasy points. Ridley was force-fed 11 targets in Week 1 and has not eclipsed the eight-target market since. In that Week 1 outing, Kirk was the odd man out, pulling just three targets. He has seen six-plus in every game since and outscored Ridley in four of the last five games. Kirk became Trevor Lawrence's safety blanket in 2022 and into the playoffs. He's picking up right where he left off in the 2023 season. Currently the WR15 on the year, Kirk's 14.0 points per game are in line with his 14.2 points per game from last year, when he finished as PPR's WR12. Since that wonky Week 1 outing, Kirk's 16.4 points are more than respectable. Lawrence is capable of supporting multiple pass-catching options, and Kirk should be viewed as a high-end WR2 going forward.
