Breece Hall's Upside Is Astronomical

Photo: Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports

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A highly intriguing trend has emerged in the fantasy football landscape this spring. Elite wide receivers and quarterbacks are being drafted higher than ever, causing workhorse running backs to slide down the draft board. As a result, players like Nick Chubb, Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Breece Hall are available in the mid to late second and early third rounds of best ball drafts on Underdog Fantasy, which provides the most efficient ADP data currently available. At their reduced cost, all of these running backs are attractive targets, but Hall stands out with the highest upside and potential to finish as the overall RB1 this season.

A Quick Aside About Footballguys Rankings

Speaking of upside, take a quick look at the new Footballguys rankings.

This year, we have Downside and Upside ratings for every single player. What is that exactly? In short, think of Upside and Downside as a Range of Outcomes. Or as Ceiling and Floor. Maybe early in a draft, you want to focus on players with low downside. We have you covered. Or maybe you like shooting high - you want those upside players (like Breece Hall).

And Now, Back to Breece Hall

Let's delve into the reasons why Hall has great upside.

The Elephant In The Room

Before we start diving into the positives, there is a concerning factor that must be discussed. Nathaniel Hackett, after washing out in Denver in less than one full season, is the new offensive coordinator of the New York Jets. Hackett was the offensive coordinator of the Green Bay Packers from 2019-2021, but there was a major caveat there: Hackett did not call plays. That was the job of head coach Matt LaFleur. Still, Hackett was heavily involved during three successful seasons and brought with him major hype and excitement as he took over as the Denver Broncos new head coach and offensive play caller last season, just as he saw LaFleur do in Green Bay previously. But unlike LaFleur, Hackett fell flat on his face, routinely struggling to manage the responsibilities of both head coach and play caller. By the time it was all said and done, Russell Wilson looked like a shell of his former self, and the Broncos offense finished with rankings of 21st in yards and 32nd (dead last) in points scored.

So there is certainly a risk that the man in charge of steering the 2023 Jets offensive ship is not worth trusting. But on a brighter side, Hackett has been reunited with Aaron Rodgers, the quarterback who won back-to-back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021 while working with him. The familiarity between the two, along with the veteran leadership and knowledge Rodgers brings to the table entering his 19th NFL season, should ultimately create a more positive offensive environment than what we saw in Denver a season ago. And although extremely tough to quantify, it should be expected Hackett is better at his job this year now that he's solely focusing on being the coordinator instead of also wearing the head coaching hat as well.

Revisiting the Prospect Profile

Hall was selected 36th overall at the top of the second round after an impressive college career at Iowa State, where he rushed for 3,941 yards and 50 touchdowns and added 82 receptions for 734 yards and 6 touchdowns in three seasons. This averaged out to 1,558 total yards and 18.7 total touchdowns per season. His dual-threat collegiate production was already elite, and then he turned in one of the most exciting athletic profiles we've ever seen during the pre-draft workout process.

The highest Relative Athletic Score possible is 10.0, and Hall came in just below that after running a 4.39 40-yard dash and posting a 40-inch vertical jump and a 10-foot-6 broad jump.

Impressive Rookie Season

Unsurprisingly, Hall made an immediate impact in the NFL. Despite sharing playing time with Michael Carter and working with quarterbacks Joe Flacco and Zach Wilson, Hall ranked as the RB8 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game (15.1) in the seven games he played before the injury. Hall also excelled in various PFF metrics in 2022, ranking first in elusive rating, first in yards after contact per attempt (4.13), third in explosive run rate (19%), and second in yards per route run (2.00) among eligible running backs. What do those statistics mean? Hall was one of the best running backs in the league, elite in shedding tackles, breaking tackles and gaining additional yardage, ripping off big-play runs, and being an efficient route runner and pass catcher immediately upon entering the NFL.