Dynasty Rankings Movement, Week 16

Photo: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports

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With the fantasy season coming to a close, a new season kicks in. Startup season! If you are brand new to dynasty, what should you know before getting started? Footballguys gives you tips and has you covered on movement within dynasty rankings heading into Week 16.

Question: If you could impart one piece of wisdom to someone trying Dynasty for the first time, what would it be?

Kevin Coleman

If you are getting into the dynasty format for the first time, I recommend reading Jeff Bell's introduction to dynasty article here.

After reading the article and approaching your startup draft, get out of the redraft mindset when drafting. Understanding where values lie and how you want to attack a dynasty draft differs significantly from a redraft league. First, you must understand your league's scoring settings and lineup requirements. If your league only requires two running backs to start weekly, that should significantly alter your draft strategy. Understanding league rules and settings is even more critical in a dynasty draft as it will directly correlate to your team's overall health throughout the years.

Will Grant

The biggest mistake I see first-time dynasty players make is over-focusing on a player's age/years of experience. While it certainly is important to build a team around players who will perform for several years, all players have value to your team. A good mix of youth and experience is important to building a competitive team. Take this season for example. Here are the average years of experience for the offensive positions in any fantasy league:

• Top 12 Fantasy Quarterbacks: 5.25 Years (6 with six or more years, only one rookie).
• Top 24 Fantasy Running backs: 4.04 Years (10 with five or more years, only two rookies)
• Top 24 Fantasy Wide Receivers: 5.41 years (12 with five or more years, only two rookies)
• Top 12 Fantasy Tight Ends: 4.91 years (7 with five or more years, only two rookies)

If you built your team around players with three or fewer years of experience, it could take a couple of seasons before you would make the playoffs and compete for the championship.

Zareh Kantzabedian

During your rookie drafts, prioritize selecting players with high NFL Draft capital. Players drafted in the first and second rounds of the NFL Draft imply that they were costly investments for NFL teams and will likely see much work as soon as possible. That is especially true for any offensive player selected in the first round. Players drafted in the second round are more susceptible to waiting their turn. Still, talented players usually find their way into the field during their rookie season or their second year. Plan and draft accordingly.

Corey Spala

Not looking at game theory, startup strategies, or identifying league settings, if you try Dynasty for the first time, I highly suggest starting a league with your friends. You may see startups happening on Twitter, and I advise against joining a league with people you do not know for the first time. You should find a group of friends who have yet to play Dynasty, or at least one year, and start a league with them. My first dynasty league was with a group of friends, and we all made mistakes and learned from them. It is beneficial to have a general idea of strategies going into the startup; I suggest making sure you are with a group of friends when doing your first dynasty league.

Christian Williams

With redraft, there's little room for errors during drafts, making trades, etc. My advice for new dynasty managers would be to get comfortable with missing. Everyone loses trades, makes terrible draft picks, and misses on free waiver additions throughout the offseason. One of the most crucial parts of Dynasty is mitigating the risk that those errors will sink your team entirely and responding to such errors promptly (e.g., getting out of the second-year player you no longer believe in before the value is completely gone). Operate with conviction, and don't be afraid to flip your rosters.

Matt Montgomery

Never throw your best offer out first when trading. I would caution you that a low-ball offer can cause a negotiation to disappear before it even starts, but you need to allow for the "dance" to happen. The easiest trades to "win" are the ones where you appear to be the "giver." No one likes a bold take, take, take guy, so allow yourself to wiggle to a comfortable spot for the opposing manager without compromising your firm price. If you throw your best offer first and it's a no, you either pay too much afterward or don't acquire the asset. It's okay to hear no multiple times; you only need to hear yes once!

Quarterback Movement

Brock Purdy, San Francisco

Kevin Coleman: I will be the first to admit I was far too low on purdy heading into the season. Against the Cardinals last week, he threw for 314 yards and four touchdowns and should be on everyone's shortlist for MVP. In the past five games, he has thrown for at least 296 yards in four of them and has become a very safe option at the quarterback position in superflex leagues. If you have Purdy as your QB2 in your dynasty leagues, you should still compete for a championship, barring a collapse from the rest of your roster. He's done enough this season to move himself into the top 12 of dynasty quarterback ranks, and he continues to climb.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay

Zareh Kantzabedian: Baker Mayfield currently has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sitting at 7-7 after going on the road at Lambeau and dismantling the Green Bay Packers secondary. The Bucs' remaining schedule has them playing the Jacksonville Jaguars and Saints at home before traveling to Carolina and getting upset by the Panthers. I'm kidding. Not really, though. Week 18 is a cursed week of football. But if Mayfield can win out or even win the division, he should have staying power for the 2024 season. Feel free to hold or flip him for a shiny new rookie pick. Preferably flip him.

Christian Williams: Mayfield has consistently moved up in my rankings this season, but his long-term outlook was still in question for a majority of that timeframe. With the Bucs in position to win the NFC South, it's more likely than not that they will run it back with Mayfield. A Geno Smith-esque extension feels expected, and at just 28 years old, Mayfield is a solid QB2 option for Dynasty. He's the QB14 on the season and inside the top-8 since Week 9. With quarterback uncertainty throughout the league, it's not unreasonable to believe Mayfield will have a Goff-level rise in value over the next 12 months.

Jake Browning, Cincinnati

Matt Montgomery: The Cincinnati Bengals do not have a Quarterback problem; they have an embarrassment of riches and should try to capitalize on them as soon as possible. Browning has proven he can handle the job as a starting quarterback for a playoff-viable team. They have won games in various scenarios, including a primetime come-from-behind overtime win this past weekend. Browning will be a starter somewhere one day, and when he is, he will be a fantasy asset in the long term, as well as this short window we are seeing.

Will Grant: Browning has been doing well since taking over the starting role from Joe Burrow back in week 11. Over the last three games, Browning has 953 passing yards and five passing touchdowns against just two interceptions. He's also added 30 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns, making him the #2 fantasy quarterback in that stretch. There is no chance the Bengals will promote Browning to starter ahead of Burrow next season. However, since Browning is an Exclusive Rights Free Agent at the end of the season, he could be a starter for another team.

Russell Wilson, Denver

Matt Montgomery: What little potential he had left has finally eroded. Sean Payton has shown us the ability to make lemonade out of the lemons he has been given, but Russell Wilson looks like a shell of his former self, and his fantasy numbers reflect this change. He has the best offensive coach of his career, and his numbers have rebounded, but they aren't anything you want to rely on week to week, and we need to move forward.

Desmond Ridder, Atlanta

Will Grant: Ridder was never high on anyone's fantasy priority list. He's averaging just 194 passing yards per game over 13 games this season. He has just ten touchdown passes and another ten interceptions to match. His 190 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns have kept him on the edge of fantasy relevance, but the Falcons have declared that they are done with him. Journeyman Taylor Heinicke will get the start this week as the 6-8 Falcons still have a shot at winning the division. Ridder is young and could still hang on as a backup in Atlanta or with some other team, but his fantasy relevance just bottomed out, and he is barely worth a roster spot now.