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As we enter Week 3, injuries are really beginning to take a toll. There are a number of backup running backs who have been thrust into large roles given that starts like Nick Chubb and Austin Ekeler are out. There are few elite running backs to build our lineups around and a deep pool of mid-to-low priced backs with upside. Picking the right running backs from this deep group will be one of the biggest keys to the slate.
Unlike running back, quarterback is loaded with strong options with seven of the league’s best passers on this slate and each boasting what should be above average matchups. Choosing from these seven quarterbacks (which dictates potential game stacks) is another major key to a successful Week 3.
As more data rolls with us getting deeper into the season, the easier it is to start to build and run simulations of the slate. I have done so on my own this week, taking Footballguys consensus projections and past performance to determine variance at both a team and player market share level then running 1,000 simulations of the slate with an optimal lineup chosen for each of those sims. This is a good way to determine what percent rostered numbers should be. We can then determine the best plays by comparing these optimal lineups to our percent rostered projections to identify players who are flying further under the radar than they should be.
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