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With no Week 8 byes or overseas games, we have a massive 13-game Main Slate that features most of the NFL’s fantasy stars. One way to gauge the slate is to look at it through the lens of player ceilings. 33 players on this slate have scored at least 25 FanDuel points in a game this season (13 quarterbacks, 10 running backs, 8 wide receivers, and 2 tight ends). We are starting to get deep enough into the season that looking at max scores can help us understand what type of overall score may be required to take down a large tournament. For example, here are the Top 20 players on the Week 8 Main Slate ranked by their highest fantasy score of the season:
When building lineups this week, it helps to keep in mind these numbers. As noted above, there are 13 quarterbacks (though two are injured) on this slate who have already put up a 25-plus point game. Many of them are priced down around $7,000. We want to be laser focused on quarterbacks with the skill sets, matchups, and proven upside to at least hit 25 FanDuel points because with so many players capable of hitting at least that threshold, it is highly likely we need at least 25 from our quarterback to win a tournament this week. This can help us winnow down our player pool. Matthew Stafford has been consistently productive all season and has a decent point per dollar floor. He has also not topped 17 FanDuel points in any game this season. We can drop him from our player pool. Trevor Lawrence has not scored more than 18.1 in any game this season. He did have a few big games last season. Maybe you do not want to totally eliminate Lawrence from our player pool if multi-entering, but it is hard to see him putting up a GPP-winning score. In fact, he shows up in just 0.7% of the optimal lineups when I simulated the slate 1,000 times.
These large slates are loaded with high upside plays, so we need to swing for the fences even more than normal. The winning score this week is likely to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 points. We need to construct lineups with a realistic path to those sort of totals. With that context in mind, let’s dive in to the plays at each position that can push us to the top of the Week 8 GPP leaderboards.
Quarterback
Is playing one of the three elite fantasy quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes II, and Jalen Hurts) the sharp play this week? Or is it better to focus on the bargain quarterbacks? One way to answer questions like this is to put together range of outcome projections, and then run simulations. This is part of my weekly process and the results of my simulations are pictured below for quarterbacks:
Column Definitions: Optimal is the percentage of times the player projects to be in the best lineup. Ownership is the percent of tournament lineups the player is expected to appear in according to Footballguys’ Devin Knotts. Difference is simply the Optimal percentage minus the Ownership percentage. Multi-Entry is a new column added this week that takes into account the other columns and calculates a good target for how many of your lineups I believe each player should be in. You likely will want to use your own judgment and cut down the player pool even further based upon your view of the slate.
The Big 3 quarterbacks appear in the optimal lineup 31.9% of the time. Our Percent Rostered estimate for the three is a combined 30.3%. From that angle, playing one of the three looks like at least a solid play. Based upon range of outcomes in the specific matchups this week, Jackson and Hurts profile as especially attractive plays.
As noted in the introduction, it is also worth thinking about decisions like this through the lens of ranges of outcomes. One way to do this without any complicated simulations is simply looking at past fantasy results from the first seven weeks and assuming those are a fairly accurate representation of the expected distribution moving forward. We are still early enough in the season that the sample sizes are small., so caveats apply. However, we can still gain some perspective by grouping players together. For example, we can look at the 21 games played this season by the Big 3 Quarterbacks:
- In 9.5% of the games in the sample, our elite quarterbacks scored 33 or more fantasy points. Thus, there would be a 25.9% chance at least one of the Big 3 will score 33+ on an average slate. None of the other projected starting quarterbacks on the slate have scored 29 points in the 100-plus games the remaining group outside the Big 3 has played. We can assume that something like 25% of the time this slate is played, one of the Big 3 quarterbacks has a massive game, and you would need to have him to take down a big tournament.
- In roughly 30% of our games, we should expect that one of the elite quarterbacks scores in the 27-32 range. This is the type of score that would mean the quarterback would be a strong play (potentially even optimal), but probably not a must-have. You do not need one of the Big 3 to hit their absolute Top 10% rage of outcomes to win a tournament if you also hit on some strong bargain plays.
There are 11 other starting quarterbacks on this slate who have put up at least 24 FanDuel points one or more times this season. Odds are extremely high that at least one of those 11 goes for 25-plus on Sunday. In the 25% of slates where one of the Big 3 hits their ceiling, it probably does not matter. In the other 75% of slates, hitting on the right mid-to-low priced quarterback who puts up a score in the high-20s should be a winning strategy.
In that lower-priced tier, the quarterbacks with the best chance of scoring 25-plus are Sam Howell ($6,900), Mac Jones ($6,700), Desmond Ridder ($6,700), and Joe Burrow ($7,100). My preferred strategy this week is to build roughly one-third of my lineups around the Big 3 and the other two-thirds around some of these lower-priced guys that open a pathway to the guys at other positions who have a realistic shot at 30-plus.
Top Plays
Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($8,800)
- We know Jackson has major upside. He scored 33.9 points last week against a good Detroit Lions defense. He also scored 28-plus in two other games. He has scored 28-plus in 43% of his 2023 starts. These types of game logs are exactly what we are looking for in GPPs. It helps that the eye test confirms the numbers. This Ravens offense looks like it is rounding into form and almost everything flows through Jackson.
- Beyond just the big picture knowledge that Jackson has a strong chance to hit a ceiling game in any given week, we should be even more confident in normal regarding his chances of doing so this week. The Cardinals defense has given up rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in 43% of their games this season. Arizona has also given up 300-plus passing yards a couple times. The only true dual-threat quarterback the team faced this season (Daniel Jones) put up 30-plus fantasy points.
Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($9,200)
- Hurts has thrown for at least 277 yards in five straight games. He has been one of the most consistently productive passers in the NFL this season.
- The last time the Eagles played in Washington, Hurts threw for 340 yards. He also threw for 319 yards at home against this same Commanders defense in Week 4. There is not a lot of guesswork involved here. We know Hurts has major upside as a passer in this matchup. Plus, he is always a threat to bulldoze his way into the end zone as a runner.
- The Commanders are allowing 263.6 passing yards per game, sixth-most in the NFL.
Sam Howell, Commanders ($6,900)
- Part of the reason Hurts has a clear path to a big game is that it is not far-fetched to believe Howell and the Commanders offense can score enough to force the Eagles to remain aggressive the entire game. When the Commanders traveled to Philadelphia in Week 4, Howell threw for 290 yards on 41 attempts and also ran for 40 yards.
- Howell has not scored a rushing touchdown since Week 1, but has enough dual-threat ability in this offensive scheme to project for a rushing score in something in the neighborhood of 20-25% of his starts. With that in mind, it is easy to understand how he has a path to appearing in the optimal lineup in 7.4% of Week 8 slate simulations.
- The Eagles face the highest pass rate against (70%) due to their elite run defense. On average, opposing quarterbacks are throwing 38.0 passes per game against Philadelphia. We saw Mac Jones throw it 54 times for 316 yards and 3 touchdowns. We also saw Kirk Cousins throw for 364 yards and 4 touchdowns on 44 attempts.
Others to Consider
Patrick Mahomes II, Chiefs ($9,000)
- We just saw Mahomes throw for 424 yards and 4 touchdowns last week against the Chargers. The upside is unquestionable. However, the Denver defense has been playing better of late and these two teams played an ugly 19-8 game just two weeks ago.
- Mahomes is the toughest call of the Big 3 quarterbacks this week. He projects to land in the optimal lineup 8.3% of the time, third-highest at the position. However, he is also projected to be on well over 10% of the rosters. It makes sense to be below the field but still have a decent amount of exposure if making multiple lineups.
Desmond Ridder, Falcons ($6,700)
- Ridder has a roughly 5% chance of being in the optimal lineup this weekend. He is only projected to be on 0.5% of tournament rosters. This is the type of discrepancy we are looking for when building lineups that — over the long run — have a positive expected value.
- Over the past three weeks, Ridder has averaged 295.3 passing yards per game on 36.3 attempts. The Falcons have opened up the passing offense now that Ridder has started to settle in.
Running Back
For the most part, the plays expected to be popular this week look worthy of their popularity. Tony Pollard ($7,600), Jonathan Taylor ($7,100), Breece Hall ($7,200), Alvin Kamara ($8,300), Isiah Pacheco ($7,400), Christian McCaffrey ($10,200), Bijan Robinson ($7,100), and D’Andre Swift ($7,700) should each attract solid ownership and project well enough to justify the popularity. This is a core group of popular backs who each have at least a 10% chance of landing in the optimal lineup this week. There are also a pair of under-the-radar plays worth considering. Raheem Mostert ($9,000) has shown too much upside to ignore. Tyjae Spears ($4,900) is talented and has been on the field over half the snaps. With some questions about Derrick Henry’s long-term future in Tennessee, there is a chance that the Titans youth movement includes more opportunity for Spears this week.
Top Plays
Breece Hall, Jets ($7,200)
- The Jets announced prior to Week 5 that Hall was no longer going to be on a pitch count. Week 4 was the first time this season he played over half the snaps. He exploded for 194 total yards and a touchdown on 25 touches. His Week 6 numbers were more modest (93 yards and a touchdown on 17 touches for 17.8 FanDuel points). However, that performance may have been even more impressive given the context. The Eagles give up the fewest fantasy PPG to opposing backs (11.0), so Hall’s 17.8 stands out as a major positive in any attempt to normalize fantasy production given the defense.
- The matchup is back to being favorable this week. The Giants have given up the ninth-most points to opposing backs (21.7 FanDuel PPG). This is a spot where we are getting a young back who looks like a potential breakout star, in a great matchup, and priced affordably as the RB11. He profiles as good chalk this week and the goal should be to be overweight versus the field.
Bijan Robinson, Falcons ($7,100)
- Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has frustrated fantasy enthusiasts with both his puzzling usage of star players and his failure to disclose Bijan Robinson’s health status prior to Week 7. It did not come out until after the game that Robinson was sick. He touched the ball just once on 11 snaps. I would avoid all Falcons in cash games given the wide variance in usage.
- In tournaments, we love the high variance. Robinson’s floor may be low, but the upside is there. He has four games this season in which he played at least 72% of the snaps. Prior to last week’s single touch, he was averaging 97.8 total yards on 13.3 carries and 5.3 targets per game.
- While the Titans have a reputation as a stiff run defense, the unit has struggled in recent weeks. Zach Moss put up 195 yards and 2 touchdowns against them two games ago. With a potentially shaky rookie quarterback (Will Levis) making his first career start on the other side, we could see some turnovers and extra red zone opportunities for Robinson and the Falcons offense.
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins ($9,000)
- Nobody is going to want to play Mostert this week. He is the fifth-priciest player on the entire slate at any position and priced way up as the RB2. He faces a tough Patriots defense. He also was on the injury report early in the week (though it was probably more of a veteran’s day off). People are going to gravitate towards the cheaper, bigger-name talents at the position. The 3.3% percent rostered projection may end up being slightly low, but it reasonable to assume Mostert goes overlooked this week.
- So we assume we are getting a guy who is on less than 5% of opposing lineups… This is a player who is currently (1) on pace for 1,500 yards and 27 total touchdowns, (2) has 41.7 and 32.7 fantasy point explosions within his last five games, (3) ran for 121 yards and 2 touchdowns against this exact same Patriots defense back in Week 2.
Others to Consider
D’Andre Swift, Eagles ($7,700)
- Since taking over as the lead back in Week 2, Swift has averaged 16.7 carries and 4.2 receptions per game. He is averaging over five yards per touch. The only thing that has kept him from being a fantasy monster is that he has scored on just 1.6% of his 125 touches over this stretch.
- Swift has 12 carries from inside the 10 yard line this season, so there is a case he has been a victim of bad luck and is a strong candidate to score more touchdowns going forward.
- On the other hand, Swift has just two red zone touches over the last three games. Both went for negative yardage.
- Overall, he is a good play but the touchdown expectations are not nearly as high for Swift as they are for some of the other top backs on the slate.
Alvin Kamara, Saints ($8,300)
- Kamara’s usage has been insane since returning to the lineup in Week 4. He has 69 carries and 35 receptions in just four games. To put that into perspective, that is a 17-game pace of 293 carries and 149 receptions. There are two ways to view these numbers.
- The optimistic view is that the bonkers usage should continue and makes Kamara arguably the best running back play on the slate.
- The pessimistic view is that this usage rate is unsustainable. The Saints other running backs are getting healthier and the team spent a third-round pick on Kendre Miller and $8M in guaranteed money on Jamaal Williams.
- The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. In my book, he is a strong play but not one of the best on the slate.
Tyjae Spears, Titans ($4,900)
- Spears has played at least 52% of the snaps for the Titans in four straight games. Coming off of a bye, it is possible that Tennessee starts to play their young talent even more, especially considering Derrick Henry is rumored to be on the trade block.
- The sub-$5K price range is ugly this week. If we want to build uniqueness and squeeze an extra superstar into our lineup, taking a flier on a talented youngster who is capable of breaking loose for a long touchdown is a strategy worth considering.
Wide Receiver
There are some wider gulfs between the optimal percentages and the percent rostered projections this week than normal at wide receiver. Whereas, the projected chalk seems sharp at running back and quarterback, it is much less to at wide receiver. I will be looking to be underweight on Zay Flowers, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, Jaylen Waddle, and Jerry Jeudy (who are each projected to be at least 10% rostered).
That is not to say there is no good chalk. Ja’Marr Chase ($8,500), A.J. Brown ($8,700), Tyreek Hill ($9,500), Jordan Addison ($7,300), and DeVonta Smith ($6,900) are popular wide receivers worth building around in Week 8.
There are also some strong plays that may go overlooked. Tee Higgins ($6,800), Nico Collins ($7,200), and Drake London ($6,700) are three worthy of strong consideration.
Top Plays
Tee Higgins, Bengals ($6,800)
- Nobody is going to play Higgins in Week 8. He has a grand total of one game with more than 3.1 FanDuel points this season. It is worth taking a deeper look. The first four weeks of the season, this Bengals offense was a mess. Burrow could barely move and he missed virtually all of training camp. Take those numbers with a grain of salt. In the two games Burrow has been healthy (Weeks 5 and 6), Higgins was hurt. He missed most of Week 5 entirely with a rib injury and was very limited in his Week 6 return (29 snaps). With the Bengals coming off of a bye, this is the first time all season both Burrow and Higgins have been healthy at the same time.
- Over the past two-plus seasons, Higgins has seven games with 20-plus FanDuel points. His maximum was 37.4. There is realistic upside here at what should be almost non-existent ownership.
- Many will be scared of the matchup. However, the 49ers have given up the 14th-most fantasy points (29.4 per game) to opposing wide receivers and has been trending in the wrong direction. Just last week we saw Jordan Addison go for 7-123-2 against this unit.
Drake London, Falcons ($6,700)
- The prime beneficiary of Desmond Ridder’s passing surge the past three weeks has been London. Since Week 5, he is averaging 7.0 catches for 85.7 yards on 9.3 targets per game. We should be open to the idea that we are seeing a talented 22-year old start to make the leap towards becoming a superstar.
- The Titans are allowing 187.2 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers. London dominates the market share of wide receiver opportunities for the Falcons. While Tennessee is not quite the pass-funnel defense it has been in recent seasons, this is still a matchup that favors the Falcons talented pass catchers and London has been the one constant in the passing attack over the past six games.
A.J. Brown, Eagles ($8,700)
- Brown is the hottest wide receiver in the NFL. He has five straight games with at least 127 receiving yards. To put into perspective just how dominant Brown has been over the past five weeks, extrapolating to a 17-game schedule would produce 129 catches for 2,383 yards and 10 touchdowns.
- One of Brown’s monster games during his recent hot streak was against Washington. He caught 9-of-13 targets for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Week 4 matchup against the Commanders. Brown cooks man coverage and the Commanders play man at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Brown tops my list of good chalk for Week 8.
Others to Consider
Nico Collins, Texans ($7,200)
- There are four wide receivers on this slate who have had 30-plus FanDuel points in a game this season: Ja’Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, and Nico Collins. Only one of the four is priced under $8K and not projected to be popular — Collins.
- While the counting numbers show teams mostly punishing the Panthers on the ground, much of that is due to game script. In terms of efficiency, the Panthers are 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt, 24th in opponent yards per completion, and 27th in passing scores allowed. The Panthers are also dead last in pressure rate.
Jordan Addison, Vikings ($7,300)
- Justin Jefferson is an elite talent, but it is worth considering how much of his production is due to Kirk Cousins and an extremely wide receiver-friendly scheme. Jordan Addison has stepped into the WR1 role and looked a lot like Justin Jefferson. He made some dazzling catches while racking up 123 yards and 2 touchdowns against a talented 49ers defense last week.
- Jefferson has had some big games against the Packers (9-184-2 in Week 1 last season). There is a realistic chance that Addison goes out and puts up similar numbers in the same role (at a $2,000 price discount compared to Jefferson).
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals ($8,500)
- The Bengals offense looks like it is rounding into form. The resurgence has been due both to Joe Burrow having a functioning calf muscle again and the stellar play of Chase. Over the past two games, Chase has averaged 10.5 catches for 136 yards and 1.5 touchdowns on 16.0 targets per game. He is a great pay up option.
Tight End
If there is one position I am not fully buying into the results of the simulations, it is tight end. This feels like a spot where both Travis Kelce ($9,000) and Mark Andrews ($7,700) are very capable of putting up GPP-winning numbers. If Kelce scores 30 points, it is going to be hard to catch up to the best Kelce lineups if you did not have him. On the other hand, the math says that Kelce is only projected to be in 6.6% of optimal lineups. He not only has to outscore all other tight ends by a substantial margin (given the salary difference), he also has to outscore the elite players at other positions. If Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and Ja’Marr Chase each put up 35 points, then it probably does not matter if Kelce scores 25 because you cannot realistically fit all four of those guys into the same lineup.
Overall, I like the top two tight ends quite a bit and will try to fit each into at least 10% of lineups. However, it does not make sense to go all in on the high-priced guys given the upside at other positions on this slate. There are also plenty of intriguing options lower on the salary scale. We have seen George Kittle ($6,100), Dallas Goedert ($6,200), Darren Waller ($6,400), and T.J. Hockenson ($6,500) hit for big weeks on occasion.
Top Plays
Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($9,000)
- Over the past three weeks, Kelce has caught 31-of-33 targets for 370 yards and 3 touchdowns. A catch rate of 93.9% is absurd. As the old saying goes, “if it ain’t broke…” We should expect to see yet another hyper-efficient game from Kelce and at least 10 targets. He caught all nine of his targets against this same Broncos defense two weeks ago on his way to 124 receiving yards.
Dalton Schultz, Texans ($5,800)
- A few weeks ago, Stroud talked about an in-game adjustment he and Schultz made that led directly to a touchdown. It was clear the two were beginning to develop a strong trust and rapport. In two games since, Schultz has had at least a 25.9% target share in both outings. In those two games before the bye, Schultz averaged 5.5 catches for 63 yards and 1.0 touchdowns on 8.5 targets per game. With Robert Woods set to miss Week 8, expect another healthy target share for Schultz.
Others to Consider
Trey McBride, Cardinals ($4,700)
- McBride had begun to see more opportunities (91 yards on 11 targets the past two weeks) and should get a further bump with Zach Ertz headed to injured reserve. We could see the second-year pass catcher (who was the first tight end selected in 2022) being to emerge as one of the top targets in the Cardinals offense. If looking to punt the position entirely, McBride looks like the highest upside option in the sub-$5K range.
Mark Andrews, Ravens ($7,700)
- The Ravens passing offense looks dangerous and Andrews is one of the two go-to targets. He has yet to have a huge yardage game this season (80 yards is his season-high), but he does have two games with multiple touchdowns.
Defense
Top Plays
New York Jets ($4,400)
- The Jets have one of the most talented defenses in the league and the secondary is getting back to full health after the bye week. They face a Giants offense that has bene held under 270 total yards four times this season. The Giants have given up a sack on a whopping 13.8% of pass attempts.
Denver Broncos ($3,000)
- It was a bit surprising to see the Broncos pop up as a top play this week in the simulations but it makes sense on deeper inspection. Patrick Mahomes II has thrown at least one interception in five-of-seven games this season. Plus, Denver’s defense has shown signs of life in recent weeks. The Broncos held the Chiefs (19) and Packers (17) to below 20 points in their last two outings. Plus, the minimum price could be the difference between a $7K wide receiver and A.J. Brown or Ja’Marr Chase. In a scenario in which three or more of the high-priced stars go off for huge weeks, the optimal play could end up being a bargain basement defense.
Minnesota Vikings ($3,700)
- Jordan Love has looked very shaky of late. He has thrown an interception in four straight games. He has a 4-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio after the first two weeks. The Packers have also not scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 2.
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