The Week 16 main slate has a real Week 18 vibe. While only 13 teams have been officially eliminated from playoff contention, 5 of the 11 games on the slate feature matchups between teams that are already done for the year:
Vikings vs. Giants
Bengals vs. Dolphins
Jets vs. Saints
Chiefs vs. Titans
Falcons vs. Cardinals
From a long-term perspective, several of these teams are actually incentivized to lose and improve their draft position. That does not mean every eliminated team is equally unmotivated, though. The Falcons, for example, traded away their first-round pick, and it would be a rough look if that selection ended up near the top of the draft. On the other end of the spectrum, a team like the Jets, which badly needs a franchise quarterback and already moved veterans for picks, has little reason to push its chips in over the final few weeks.
A lot of what we do each week is digging into the numbers to uncover the most exploitable matchups. That still matters in Week 16, but this slate also forces us to play a bit of armchair psychologist. Motivation, effort, and organizational direction feel especially important when so many teams are simply playing out the string.
Below is a quick, high-level look at the motivation behind some of the most interesting games on the slate and how that context shapes my early GPP leanings.
Jets vs. Saints
To my eye, the Jets look miserable and largely uninterested in being out there. The Saints, meanwhile, appear energized by their rookie quarterback's early success and genuinely motivated to use these final games to build momentum toward 2026. I am willing to discount some of the season-long numbers here, as the soft factors strongly favor New Orleans. This is a spot where I want to be overweight on the Saints’ cheaper ancillary pieces in tournaments.
Chiefs vs. Titans
Kansas City has been a Super Bowl fixture throughout the Patrick Mahomes II era, until everything came to a screeching halt last week. Injuries combined with an unexpectedly early playoff exit put motivation front and center. It would not surprise me if the Chiefs largely mailed it in down the stretch, and the growing list of players ruled out for this matchup points in that direction. Tennessee has its franchise quarterback and would likely benefit from finishing the season with some positive momentum. I am interested in the Titans' defense and Tony Pollard this week.
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Despite both teams being eliminated, this game feels surprisingly live. Neither side appears ready to pack it in, and there is sneaky shootout potential here. This matchup is high on my list of spots to target in GPPs.
Bengals vs. Dolphins
This is the biggest wild card on the slate. Cincinnati looked checked out last week in brutal conditions against a motivated Ravens team, and another dud would not shock anyone. Still, my gut says the Bengals show some pride and put together a strong offensive performance. Miami’s motivation is also tough to pin down after being eliminated and benching Tua Tagovailoa. High variance on both sides creates a wide range of outcomes for the stars in this game, which is precisely what we want in tournaments.
Steelers vs. Lions
This one is close to a must-win for Detroit. A win dramatically improves their playoff odds, while a loss would nearly bury them. Pittsburgh is in a similar boat, with its postseason chances swinging sharply based on the outcome. Expect both teams to be fully engaged.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
This is the most important game on the slate from a playoff standpoint. Tampa Bay is almost in with a win, but suddenly on shaky ground with a loss. Carolina is still alive as well, making this one of the few actual high-leverage games we have this week.
We will start by breaking down the top team-level and positional matchups, with an emphasis on backfields and passing games that offer clear paths to tournament-winning scores. From there, we will go position by position and highlight the top options at each spot. Each section includes Good Chalk, which features strong plays worth eating at higher ownership, and Low-Owned Targets, which spotlight players who can help your lineup stand out in large-field GPPs.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
My favorite way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest matchups, where teams are expected to score below their 2025 average.
It also helps to combine this number with my adjusted defense-versus-position numbers. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but the Seahawks allow the Rams to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation for that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 16 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Seeing three teams with nothing to play for sitting at the top of the matchup list is exactly why we spent time on motivation in the introduction. On this slate, context matters almost as much as raw numbers.
New Orleans
The Saints’ team total has climbed another whole point to 23.5 since I wrote the DFS First Look on Wednesday morning, giving them a massive 46% weekly scoring boost. This spot gets especially interesting once you factor in the injuries across the skill positions. The top three running backs are all out, leaving Audric Estime and Evan Hull as the last men standing. I am projecting roughly a 60-40 split in favor of Estime, who will be discussed below. Under normal circumstances, a fourth-string back stepping into a committee role on a middling offense would be nowhere near the tournament radar. Here, the combination of a $4,900 salary and an elite matchup makes him intriguing. The Saints are also thin at wide receiver after injuries and the earlier trades of Rashid Shaheed and Brandin Cooks. Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson are strong plays, but I am also interested in Kevin Austin Jr., who will be covered below.
Atlanta
Atlanta is picking up a 28% Week 16 scoring boost and also draws an excellent individual matchup for Bijan Robinson, who is featured in the Good Chalk section. Drake London is expected back, but his role is still very much an open question. If his return does not significantly eat into Kyle Pitts Sr.’s target share, Pitts is set up for another strong performance.
Cincinnati
How motivated and focused will the Bengals be in a completely meaningless game? That question defines this matchup. If the offense comes out loose and aggressive, they could do real damage. Minkah Fitzpatrick is week to week, and Miami just allowed four straight touchdown drives to a Pittsburgh offense that had not managed that feat at any point over the past five seasons. Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, and Ja’Marr Chase are high-risk, high-reward tournament options in a spot with a vast range of outcomes.
Houston
Everything here hinges on the health of the running backs. If we could confidently project Woody Marks for another workhorse role, he would be a smash play. Instead, he is very questionable with an ankle injury, forcing us to consider alternate paths. Do we pivot to Nick Chubb? Or does Houston lean more heavily on the passing game to compensate for a compromised backfield? We will dig into the case for C.J. Stroud below.
Carolina
This is a strong spot for Bryce Young against a Tampa Bay defense allowing 3.0 fantasy points per game above expectation to opposing quarterbacks. Young also showed added rushing upside last week, scrambling for a season-high 49 yards. Motivation is not a concern here, making him one of the safer quarterbacks on the slate.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 16 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
There is not much to be excited about when scanning most of the teams in this section. That said, the Steelers–Lions game deserves extra consideration, as it carries the highest total on the slate and features some of the chalkiest players for Week 16 GPPs.
Detroit
While the Lions’ team total sits only slightly below their season average, this is still an excellent environment for the passing game. Detroit has the highest implied total on the slate, and Pittsburgh has been allowing production well above opponent averages through the air. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams have been red hot and should be among the most popular wide receivers this week. The absence of T.J. Watt is also notable, as it should give Jared Goff extra time to let routes develop.
Pittsburgh
The Steelers’ offense has quietly been solid in recent weeks and now faces a Detroit defense that has been vulnerable to big passing performances. DK Metcalf is likely to carry significant ownership, but Kenneth Gainwell may offer more upside relative to his salary and ownership, making him an appealing tournament pivot.
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud
Houston is banged up at running back, with both Woody Marks and Nick Chubb questionable. It is easy to envision a scenario where the Texans ask Stroud to throw more than usual. If that happens, he becomes very intriguing at this price point. Stroud has averaged a solid 7.9 yards per attempt over his last five games, and if we get 35 to 40 pass attempts, the upside is very real. Stacking Stroud with Nico Collins is a low-cost path to a ceiling outcome and ranks as my favorite Week 16 stack.
Tyler Shough
Shough is cheap and has posted 18 or more fantasy points in three straight games. Over his last five, he has averaged 22.0 rushing yards and 2.2 red-zone carries per game. He draws a Jets defense giving up 2.3 fantasy points per game above expectation to opposing quarterbacks, a number that has climbed in the second half of the season after the team traded away its two best defenders. The rushing equity is appealing, but the real draw is the pricing. Shough, paired with Kevin Austin Jr. and Juwan Johnson, makes it easy to fit three elite $9K-plus options into the same lineup.
Joe Burrow
Burrow was awful last week against Baltimore and admitted as much afterward. My gut says he responds to that embarrassing performance with a big bounce-back game against a Miami defense that made 2025 Aaron Rodgers look like prime Aaron Rodgers last week. This is a volatile spot, but the upside is massive.
Jacoby Brissett
In nine starts, Brissett is averaging 300.7 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game. Week after week, he is putting up 20-plus fantasy points at a bargain salary. We can keep going back to the well until they finally price Brissett at the $8K+ salary he deserves.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson
Robinson saw a season-high 11 targets and 30 total opportunities last week, turning that workload into 175 total yards, eight catches, and a touchdown. He draws an even better matchup this week against an Arizona defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Cardinals have surrendered 180 or more total yards to running back rooms in back-to-back games, setting Robinson up for another ceiling performance.
Jahmyr Gibbs
Gibbs has topped 33 FanDuel points in four of his last eight games, following a clear boom-bust cadence. Each monster outing has been followed by a disappointing performance the following week. He is coming off a 7.8-point dud last week, which lines him up nicely for another spike game. Pittsburgh has allowed 100 or more total yards to each of the previous three starting running backs it has faced, keeping Gibbs firmly in play for tournaments.
De'Von Achane
I absolutely love Achane as a pivot off Jahmyr Gibbs, who is projected to be anywhere from 3 to 5 times as popular. This is an excellent spot for Achane. The Bengals have been dreadful against opposing running backs, allowing an NFL-high 7.5 FanDuel points per game above expectation to opposing backfields. They have been especially vulnerable to dual-threat backs, which plays directly into Achane’s skill set. Cincinnati has allowed the third-most receiving yards (638) and the second-most receiving touchdowns (7) to running backs this season. Achane has recorded at least five catches in eight of his 14 games, giving him a strong floor with slate-breaking upside.
Bucky Irving
Since returning in Week 13, Irving has averaged 16.0 carries and 2.7 targets per game. There is room for that workload to grow as he gets further removed from the injury, and with Tampa Bay playing a massive game that would push its playoff odds to 95% with a win. Carolina has repeatedly allowed ceiling games to pass-catching running backs, making Irving a strong tournament option at his current price.
Audric Estime
With Devin Neal and Alvin Kamara both out, I expect Estime to lead the Saints' backfield in a tremendous matchup. Over the last four games, the Jets have allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing running backs, an average of 2.75 per game. At $4,900, Estime does not need a monster performance to pay off. One trip to the end zone is often enough, and anything beyond that is gravy.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins
From Week 7 through Week 11, Collins saw double-digit targets in every game. Over his last four, he has reached 10 targets just once, largely due to Houston leaning more heavily on the run game behind Woody Marks. Marks has barely practiced this week and is questionable to play, which opens the door for a more aggressive pass-heavy approach. If the Texans put the offense on the shoulders of C.J. Stroud and Collins, the ceiling is enormous. Collins reminded us of that last week, turning just four targets into 85 yards and two touchdowns.
Tetairoa McMillan
McMillan erupted in Week 11 with an 8-130-2 line and has been relatively quiet since. In what amounts to an elimination game against Tampa Bay, this feels like a spot where Carolina leans back into him. The Buccaneers are a classic pass-funnel defense and just surrendered a career game to Kyle Pitts Sr. last week. While Pitts is listed as a tight end, he wins in many of the same intermediate and vertical areas where McMillan does. It would not be surprising to see the Panthers attack Tampa Bay in a similar way.
Jameson Williams
Over the past three weeks, Williams has averaged 7.0 catches, 124.7 yards, and 0.7 touchdowns on 9.3 targets per game. He is simply too cheap for his current role and usage. The matchup is excellent, as Pittsburgh allows 3.8 FanDuel points per game above expectation to opposing wide receivers and will be without T.J. Watt. Williams is especially attractive in GPPs because of his big-play profile. He has recorded a reception of 29 or more yards in six of his last seven games.
Michael Wilson
While Marvin Harrison Jr is expected back after missing time with a heel injury, he has acknowledged that he will not be at full strength. That raises the odds that Wilson continues to function as the engine of this surprisingly explosive Cardinals passing game. Jacoby Brissett is averaging over 300 passing yards per game, and many of his best performances came with Harrison sidelined and Wilson operating as the clear WR1. Wilson has averaged 15.0 targets per game in the four contests Harrison has missed over the past month and a half. With ownership likely suppressed due to Harrison’s return, Wilson stands out as an excellent tournament play. If his role holds up better than expected, he has already shown he can deliver a GPP-winning outcome.
Adonai Mitchell
It has been hard to find bright spots for the Jets, but Mitchell’s emergence as a legitimate deep threat since arriving from Indianapolis in the Sauce Gardner trade has been one. He has played at least 79% of the snaps in each of the past four games, averaging 56.5 receiving yards on a healthy 8.5 targets per game over that stretch. Mitchell looks motivated to prove he can handle the WR2 role heading into next season and has clearly earned the trust of offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand. He has also developed quick chemistry with quarterback Brady Cook. Mitchell projects as the Jets’ go-to option down the stretch and is especially appealing as a cheap bring-back in Saints stacks.
Kevin Austin Jr.
Sticking with Saints stacks, Austin is fascinating at the minimum salary this week. DeVaughn Vele had emerged as one of Tyler Shough’s preferred targets opposite Chris Olave before leaving last week’s game with an injury after posting five catches for 69 yards. Once Vele exited, Austin stepped directly into that role and finished with three catches for 33 yards on five targets. Together, the two accounted for more than 100 receiving yards. With Vele out this week, everything points to Austin taking over a full-time role in the Saints' offense at a bargain price.
Tight End
Harold Fannin Jr.
This is not an ideal spot for Fannin. Cleveland carries a modest 15.5 team total, and Buffalo has been strong against the pass. At this point, though, it may be time to treat Fannin as matchup-proof. He has clearly emerged as the focal point of the Browns' offense. Over the past two weeks, he has hauled in 15 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown on 25 targets. That level of volume at a sub-$6K salary is difficult to pass up, even in a tough matchup.
Juwan Johnson
As noted in the matchup section, the Saints carry a 23.5-point team total, which sits 46% above their season average despite the offense being ravaged by injuries. Johnson and Chris Olave are essentially the last core skill players standing. Johnson has recorded at least four catches in seven of his previous eight games, giving him a very steady floor for this price range. He also brings real upside if the Saints' offense clicks against a Jets defense that has struggled for much of the season.
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Pitts has posted three straight games with at least six catches and 80 or more yards. Over that span, he is averaging 8.0 receptions for 112.7 yards and 1.0 touchdowns on 10.0 targets per game. The potential return of Drake London introduces some uncertainty, but it still makes sense to ride the hot hand while Pitts’ salary remains affordable. London may operate closer to a decoy than a full-time weapon after missing Friday’s practice and clearly not being back to full strength following his knee injury.
Darren Waller
The quarterback switch to Quinn Ewers adds some volatility, but Waller has been a featured option in the red zone all season. He already has six touchdowns on just 184 total snaps and followed that up with seven catches for 66 yards and two scores last week against Pittsburgh. The matchup is elite, as Cincinnati has allowed 1,276 yards and 15 touchdowns to opposing tight ends. Even with some uncertainty at quarterback, Waller’s role and matchup give him clear tournament-winning upside.