Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to identify the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to equip you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations to help you identify the best plays before the week unfolds.
Slate Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which plots each team's implied total on the X-axis and how much the team is favored by on the Y-axis. The further to the right, the higher the team total; the higher up, the larger the spread in their favor. A dotted line connects each team's logo to its opponent's, giving a quick sense of both game context and matchup strength. I've always been a visual learner, and this layout helps the numbers click more than just scanning betting lines. Teams in the upper-right quadrant are favorites expected to score plenty of points, while those in the upper-left are underdogs in high-total games that could turn into shootouts. Teams in the lower-right are favorites in games expected to be very low scoring, while teams in the bottom-left are underdogs with low totals that we mostly want to avoid.
After a 13-game main slate in Week 15, we are back to a more manageable 11-gamer in Week 16, with two games being played on Saturday.
Top Games
Pittsburgh travels to Detroit in the highest-total game on the slate. The Lions defense has been struggling, but the offense remains incredibly potent, which is a strong recipe for fantasy production.
The Dolphins and Bengals were both inept on offense last week, but this game still carries the second-highest total of the slate. It feels like a true wild card. Miami is making a change at quarterback, while Cincinnati is playing a completely meaningless game in a lost season, which makes motivation a real concern.
The Cardinals-Falcons matchup, featuring a pair of backup quarterbacks coming off 300-yard passing games, is also a key spot. There are several injuries to monitor here, and we could be looking at very condensed target trees if the top wide receivers miss again.
Motivation
Even with three weeks remaining, motivation is becoming an increasingly important factor. Teams like Kansas City and Cincinnati are not accustomed to being eliminated this early, and it is fair to wonder whether they fully push through the final stretch. There are also quarterback-needy teams like the Raiders and Jets that may be incentivized to lose games to improve draft positioning.
On the other end of the spectrum, teams like the Lions, Panthers, Steelers, and Buccaneers are playing extremely high-leverage games with their playoff chances hanging in the balance.
Injury Watchlist
The main slate avoids some of the most chaotic injury situations this week, but there are still several key spots to monitor:
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RJ Harvey: Left last week's game late with a rib injury.
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Devin Neal and Alvin Kamara: This is a solid spot for the New Orleans backfield, and it could be without all three backs who opened the season on the roster. That scenario would potentially pave the way for Audric Estime to lead the backfield.
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Drake London: Trending toward a Week 16 return, but that does not mean he would be at full strength or immediately resume a true alpha role. His status has significant implications for Kyle Pitts Sr., who should be very popular this week if London is out or limited.
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Marvin Harrison Jr.: Michael Wilson has put up superstar-level production whenever Harrison has been sidelined.
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Tee Higgins: After suffering multiple concussions in a short span and with little at stake for Cincinnati, it would make sense for the team to be extremely cautious with him.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
Another way to identify potential value is to compare each team's implied total from oddsmakers with its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 16 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
New Orleans
The Saints were a favorite target of mine in best ball because of their playoff schedule, and if Alvin Kamara were still early-2024 Alvin Kamara, we would be very excited about this spot. Unfortunately, he will likely miss another week and was showing his age even before the injury. That said, if there is a clear starting running back we can trust to handle a heavy share of the workload, there is upside here. The Jets allow 4.3 PPG above expectation to opposing running backs, and that does not fully capture how bad this defense has been since trading away its top two defenders at the deadline. We currently project a 55-45 split between Audric Estime and Evan Hull, but my gut says the split may tilt more heavily toward Estime. That makes him intriguing, especially on FanDuel at $4,900. He handled six touches for 50 total yards on 25 snaps last week and dominated the backfield opportunity after Devin Neal went down. If both Neal and Kamara are out in Week 16, this is a spot to target.
Atlanta
Not only are we getting a 25% Week 16 scoring boost for the Falcons, but Bijan Robinson also draws a strong individual matchup. He looks like the early favorite to be the chalk high-priced option this week.
Cincinnati
The big question here is motivation. How focused will the Bengals be in a completely meaningless game? If the offense plays loose and aggressively, this could turn into a ceiling game. Minkah Fitzpatrick is week to week, and Miami just allowed four straight touchdown drives to a Pittsburgh offense that had not accomplished that feat at any point over the past five seasons. Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, and Ja'Marr Chase are all live tournament options in a matchup with a very wide range of outcomes.
Miami
The numbers point to this being a De'Von Achane week, though it is difficult to project the full impact of the switch to Quinn Ewers under center. Darren Waller continued his torrid touchdown pace with two more scores last week and now gets an ideal matchup for tight ends.
Carolina
This is a strong spot for Bryce Young against a Tampa Bay defense that allows 3.0 PPG above expectation to opposing quarterbacks. Young also added a season-high 49 rushing yards last week in a loss to the Saints, giving him a bit more fantasy-friendly upside than his price suggests.