Let's have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here's how this article will work: each week, I'll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it'll just be a gut call. For every pick, I'll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.
The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are more fun to root for.
How It Works
Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.
Tracking Last Week
I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week.
- Last Week (2-4), - $40
- Season (34-34), - $194
Chase Brown hit his over on rushing yards, but both Ravens tight ends failed to hit their receiving overs in a strange game that Baltimore dominated despite taking just 40 offensive snaps. In the second prop, Keenan Allen hit his receiving yardage over, while Rashee Rice and Omarion Hampton came up just short.
Week 16 Prop #1
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Some weeks, we take advantage of profit boosts. This week, we will take advantage of Underdog's free pick on Josh Allen.
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Chase has reached at least 90 receiving yards in seven of his last nine games.
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Since Joe Burrow returned, Chase has played two games without Tee Higgins. In those games, he put up 110 yards on 14 targets and 132 yards on 16 targets. Higgins is trending toward missing another game while in concussion protocol.
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Chase looks highly motivated to finish the season strong, and with the Bengals largely out of contention, individual accolades are one of the few remaining incentives. Letting Chase dominate down the stretch feels like a clear priority for both Burrow and the coaching staff.
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From a narrative angle, Chase appears intent on reminding everyone he is still the best wide receiver in the league. He mentioned watching Jaxon Smith-Njigba tape and planned to tune into Rams Seahawks on Thursday night. Call it a hunch, but this feels like a spot for a big Chase game.
"I know I'm one of the best out there, if not the best."
— Chatterbox Sports (@CBoxSports) December 18, 2025
- Ja'Marr Chase#Bengals pic.twitter.com/baoI9rzep5
Week 16 Prop #2
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With Devin Neal placed on IR and Alvin Kamara not practicing for more than three weeks, Estime is in line to step in as the Saints' lead back this week against the Jets.
JACKSON: Saints RB room is thin vs Jets, opening the door for Audric Estime 🚪🏈
— LouisianaSportsDotNet (@LASportsDotNet) December 19, 2025
With Kamara, Miller & Neal out, Estime gets a huge chance to prove he's more than power. #WhoDat https://t.co/mdYVDl5atB
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The Jets' run defense has completely collapsed since trading away Quinnen Williams. Over the last four weeks, they have allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing running backs. New York has also given up yardage in bunches, including 142 rushing yards to Bijan Robinson in Week 13 and 216 rushing yards to the Dolphins' backfield in Week 14.
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New Orleans' 22.5-point team total may not stand out at first glance, but it is nearly 40% higher than their season average. The Saints are 4.5-point home favorites and motivated to finish strong with Tyler Shough showing enough in recent wins to justify a full season as the starter in 2026. The Jets, meanwhile, look like a team playing out the string and angling for draft position, which sets up well for a fresh and physical runner like Estime.
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It has been difficult to find positives for the Jets, but Mitchell's emergence as a legitimate deep threat since arriving from Indianapolis in the Sauce Gardner trade has been one of them.
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Mitchell has played at least 79% of the snaps in each of the last four games, averaging 56.5 receiving yards on 8.5 targets per game during that span.
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He appears determined to prove he can handle the WR2 role next season and has the support of offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand.
Tanner Engstrand lights up whenever he talks about Adonai Mitchell.
— Zack Rosenblatt (@ZackBlatt) December 18, 2025
Said he's one of the first people in the building and said he's noticed things clicking for him in terms of understanding the scheme or the play calls — that he can see Mitchell hearing the call in walkthrough…
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Mitchell has also quickly developed strong chemistry with quarterback Brady Cook and projects as the Jets' primary receiving option down the stretch.
Brady Cook talks about his chemistry with AD Mitchell:
— Jets Videos (@snyjets) December 17, 2025
"It's growing. He works really, really hard. I've been impressed by just how he's supported me and how he's constantly in my ear since that Miami game. We watch film together, we're always getting extra reps together and… pic.twitter.com/KNAIRIZUWd
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