Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to identify the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to equip you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations to help you identify the best plays before the week unfolds.
Slate Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which plots each team's implied total on the X-axis and how much the team is favored by on the Y-axis. The further to the right, the higher the team total; the higher up, the larger the spread in their favor. A dotted line connects each team's logo to its opponent's, giving a quick sense of both game context and matchup strength. I've always been a visual learner, and this layout helps the numbers click more than just scanning betting lines. Teams in the upper-right quadrant are favorites expected to score plenty of points, while those in the upper-left are underdogs in high-total games that could turn into shootouts. Teams in the lower-right are favorites in games expected to be very low scoring, while teams in the bottom-left are underdogs with low totals that we mostly want to avoid.
This week brings the smallest FanDuel main slate of the season, with just nine games. The clear headliner is Cardinals-Bengals. Cincinnati carries a slate-high 29.8-point team total as 7-point home favorites, while Arizona’s 22.8-point total ranks sixth highest on the slate.
New England is a massive 13.5-point favorite against the Jets. Drake Maye just posted his first 300-yard passing game, but this is not a spot where the Patriots' offense may be pushed hard enough to unlock his true ceiling. The expected game script, however, sets up exceptionally well for Rhamondre Stevenson in what could be a strong rushing environment.
The Jaguars have been one of the hottest offenses in the league, and now draw a Colts defense that had little answer for San Francisco on Monday night. This matchup puts Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville's pass catchers firmly in play once again.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
Another way to identify potential value is to compare each team's implied total from oddsmakers with its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 16 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Las Vegas
This week, the Raiders have a massive 49% scoring boost. We saw a similarly extreme number last week with the Saints, and Chris Olave ended up being the must-have player on the slate. The same could very well be true this week with Ashton Jeanty. When you combine the team-level scoring boost, an elite positional matchup, and the fact that Jeanty finally broke out last week, he is set up to be one of the chalkiest plays on the main slate.
Cincinnati
The Bengals carry a 29.8-point team total, which represents a 24% increase over their season average. Arizona has struggled badly against opposing running backs all season. Chase Brown has been sharing the backfield with Samaje Perine a bit more than we would prefer, but the upside remains obvious. After scoring three touchdowns in Week 16, Brown is firmly in play for another big performance in this spot.
New Orleans
The Saints have won three straight games, averaging 24.5 points per game over that stretch. With favorable matchups against the Titans and Falcons still ahead, the franchise has a real opportunity to build momentum with rookie quarterback Tyler Shough down the stretch. A 24% scoring boost bodes well for Shough and Chris Olave.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 16 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Philadelphia
The Eagles are the first spot that jumps off the page here. Their 21.0-point team total is modest and represents roughly a 10% decrease from their season average. Even so, this still sets up as a strong spot for Saquon Barkley. Buffalo is allowing 4.4 FanDuel points per game above expectation to opposing running backs, and Barkley has started to find his groove down the stretch.
FanDuel
Let's take a look at the top options on FanDuel according to the first run of Footballguys projections. Players at each position are listed in order of their projected Points Per Dollar ("PPD").
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence has been the hottest quarterback in the league over the past two weeks. He has thrown for 609 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 71 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground. While the Week 15 eruption could be dismissed because it came against the Jets, his dominant road performance against Denver last week is much harder to ignore. Few environments are tougher on opposing quarterbacks than Denver, and Lawrence passed that test with ease. He now draws an ideal matchup against an Indianapolis defense that just allowed 295 passing yards and five touchdowns to Brock Purdy. On first look, he's the cash-game guy this week.
Joe Burrow
Burrow has thrown four touchdown passes in two of his last three games. Last week, he carved up Miami for 309 yards and four touchdowns on just 32 attempts. With his full complement of weapons available and a defense that often forces him to stay aggressive for four quarters, Burrow is well-positioned for another big performance and profiles as a go-to tournament option.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson draws a dream matchup against a Jets defense allowing 3.3 FanDuel points per game above average to opposing running backs. Even that figure undersells how poor the unit has been since the trade of Quinnen Williams. Stevenson should have the backfield largely to himself with talented rookie TreVeyon Henderson unlikely to play after suffering a concussion in Week 16. New England is a massive 13.5-point home favorite in a game that is critical to its hopes of winning the AFC East and potentially securing a first-round bye.
Ashton Jeanty
Jeanty erupted for 188 yards and two touchdowns last week against an elite Texans defense. It is worth noting that 111 of those yards came on two long plays, which may be difficult to replicate. Even so, the volume is very real. Jeanty handled 24 carries and now draws a Giants defense allowing 5.6 FanDuel points per game above expectation to opposing running backs. With the Raiders looking to build momentum heading into 2026, few things would help more than their top-five rookie stringing together strong performances to close the season.
Tyjae Spears
After last week’s win over Kansas City, offensive coordinator Nick Holz said the near 50/50 split between Tony Pollard and Spears was by design, pointing to how explosive Spears is in space. Spears set a season high with 13 carries and matched a season high with five targets, finishing with 103 total yards and a touchdown. If he sees similar usage again, he has a real chance to smash at a $4,900 salary.
Wide Receiver
Chris Olave
Since Tyler Shough took over, Olave has averaged 6.2 catches for 80.7 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 9.7 targets per game. He has been even better over the past two weeks. In last week’s win over the Jets, Olave exploded for 10 catches, 148 yards, and two touchdowns on 16 targets. The Saints' offense has been decimated by injuries, leaving Olave as the lone remaining high-end weapon. That setup should continue to result in him being force-fed targets.
Ja'Marr Chase
Since Joe Burrow returned in Week 13, Chase has topped 109 receiving yards in three of four games. Despite that production, he is in the middle of the longest touchdown drought of his career, having not scored since Week 7. During that seven-game stretch, Chase has seen 86 targets, an average of 12.3 per game, so this is clearly not a volume issue. This feels like the type of drought set to expire, potentially in a big way.
Stefon Diggs
Diggs is coming off a massive nine-catch, 138-yard performance in a comeback win over Baltimore on Sunday night. He also posted nine catches for 105 yards in New England’s Week 11 win over the Jets. While the Patriots could lean run-heavy this week as 13.5-point favorites, Diggs still profiles as a strong tournament option given his modest salary and the fact that he already has four 100-yard games this season.
Tight End
Trey McBride
With an unusual amount of value at running back and fewer must-have, high-priced wide receivers, this could be the week to pay up at tight end in cash games. McBride has averaged 8.0 catches for 82 yards in 10 games with Jacoby Brissett and has scored nine touchdowns over that span. He draws a matchup against a Bengals defense that has been historically awful against opposing tight ends in a game with legitimate shootout potential.
Juwan Johnson
Johnson was a favorite last week, and I am going right back to him here. His FanDuel salary rose by just $100 despite catching eight passes for 89 yards in Week 16. He remains a strong value and offers natural leverage as a pivot off Chris Olave, who could end up carrying heavy ownership.
DraftKings
Let's take a look at the top options on DraftKings according to the first run of Footballguys projections. Players at each position are listed in order of their projected Points Per Dollar ("PPD").
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence has been the hottest quarterback in the league over the past two weeks. He has thrown for 609 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 71 rushing yards and two more scores on the ground. While the Week 15 eruption could be dismissed because it came against the Jets, his dominant road performance against Denver last week is much harder to ignore. Few environments are tougher on opposing quarterbacks than Denver, and Lawrence passed that test with ease. He now draws an ideal matchup against an Indianapolis defense that just allowed 295 passing yards and five touchdowns to Brock Purdy. On first look, he's the cash-game guy this week.
Joe Burrow
Burrow has thrown four touchdown passes in two of his last three games. Last week, he carved up Miami for 309 yards and four touchdowns on just 32 attempts. With his full complement of weapons available and a defense that often forces him to stay aggressive for four quarters, Burrow is well-positioned for another big performance and profiles as a go-to tournament option.
Running Backs
Rhamondre Stevenson
Stevenson draws a dream matchup against a Jets defense allowing 3.3 FanDuel points per game above average to opposing running backs. Even that figure undersells how poor the unit has been since the trade of Quinnen Williams. Stevenson should have the backfield largely to himself with talented rookie TreVeyon Henderson unlikely to play after suffering a concussion in Week 16. New England is a massive 13.5-point home favorite in a game that is critical to its hopes of winning the AFC East and potentially securing a first-round bye.
Ashton Jeanty
Jeanty erupted for 188 yards and two touchdowns last week against an elite Texans defense. It is worth noting that 111 of those yards came on two long plays, which may be difficult to replicate. Even so, the volume is very real. Jeanty handled 24 carries and now draws a Giants defense allowing 5.6 FanDuel points per game above expectation to opposing running backs. With the Raiders looking to build momentum heading into 2026, few things would help more than their top-five rookie stringing together strong performances to close the season.
Wide Receiver
Chris Olave
Since Tyler Shough took over, Olave has averaged 6.2 catches for 80.7 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 9.7 targets per game. He has been even better over the past two weeks. In last week’s win over the Jets, Olave exploded for 10 catches, 148 yards, and two touchdowns on 16 targets. The Saints' offense has been decimated by injuries, leaving Olave as the lone remaining high-end weapon. That setup should continue to result in him being force-fed targets.
Ja'Marr Chase
Since Joe Burrow returned in Week 13, Chase has topped 109 receiving yards in three of four games. Despite that production, he is in the middle of the longest touchdown drought of his career, having not scored since Week 7. During that seven-game stretch, Chase has seen 86 targets, an average of 12.3 per game, so this is clearly not a volume issue. This feels like the type of drought set to expire, potentially in a big way.
Tight End
Trey McBride
With an unusual amount of value at running back and fewer must-have, high-priced wide receivers, this could be the week to pay up at tight end in cash games. McBride has averaged 8.0 catches for 82 yards in 10 games with Jacoby Brissett and has scored nine touchdowns over that span. He draws a matchup against a Bengals defense that has been historically awful against opposing tight ends in a game with legitimate shootout potential. It is fair to wonder if McBride's DraftKings price tag would be $1,000 higher if he were a wide receiver.
Juwan Johnson
Johnson was a favorite last week, and I am going right back to him here. His DraftKings salary rose by just $200 despite catching eight passes for 89 yards in Week 16. He remains a strong value and offers natural leverage as a pivot off Chris Olave, who could end up carrying heavy ownership.
