Gameday Injury Expectations Week 1

Photo: Mark Hoffman, USA Today Sports

Formal Introduction

Hello there! You may have noticed that I am not Dr. Jene Bramel. In case you missed it, my name is Adam Hutchison, and I am one of the new additions to the Footballguys network. I am a full-time Physical Therapist, a fantasy football enthusiast, and lucky enough to spearhead this column in addition to Monday Injury Rounds.

If you were a Dr. Bramel fan (first off, you have excellent taste) and are nervous about someone new infiltrating your start/sit decisions - fear not. Along with my experience as a health care provider, I have been committed to providing actionable/streamlined injury information for fantasy managers. I do some with my injury database, which is a nice reference point for injuries by using historical comps.

Now, enough of the formalities. Let's get to the important stuff.

Understanding the NFL's Injury Report

(per Dr. Bramel)

The injury report released by the NFL is two reports. The first is the Practice Participation report, which lists which injured players practiced and their participation level. It also includes players who rested or missed practice for non-injury-related reasons. The second is the Game Status Report, which gives the probability a player will play, i.e., Questionable, Doubtful, Out. The Practice Participation Report is released every day of the week (Monday through Saturday). The Game Status Report is released with the Friday participation report (Wednesday for Thursday games, Saturday for Monday games).

In this feature, I'll include the Game Status Listing and my expectation of their likelihood to play.

If you are reading this article on Saturday, make sure you circle back on Sunday morning as more updates trickle in within the next 24 hours

Current Status on High-Impact Injured Players

Gameday Decision

• TE Mark Andrews
• WR Romeo Doubs
• WR Adam Thielen
• RB Cordarrelle Patterson
• TE Darren Waller
• WR Marquise Brown

Trending Doubtful (Likely Inactive)

• RB Kendre Miller

Trending Probable (Expected to Play)

• TE George Kittle
• RB Breece Hall
• WR Jerry Jeudy
• RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Eligible to return from injured reserve

• N/A

Ruled Out

• WR Christian Watson (hamstring)
• WR Cooper Kupp (hamstring)
• WR John Metchie III (hamstring)
• WR D.J. Chark Jr (hamstring)

Sunday 1:00 PM EST Games

Key:

Player | Injury | Game Status Listing | Footballguys Expectation

George Kittle | Groin | Questionable | Likely Active

George Kittle has been nursing a groin injury since the 10th of August. The average time missed for NFL TEs with a groin strain is ~2 weeks, and like Darren Waller above, Kittle also dealt with a groin injury last season and missed 2 weeks as well. We are currently 4 weeks since we were first made aware of Kittle's injury, and given the two data points above, I think there is a decent chance that Kittle will suit up on Sunday even though he logged limited practice sessions all week. The former Hawkeye always seems to be banged up but typically undershoots the expected injury timeline by playing through injuries. Managers who invested in Kittle should have some optimism heading into Week 1.

Sunday Update: George Kittle is expected to play. With all the injuries to the TE landscape, he should be started in nearly all lineups.

Mark Andrews | Quadriceps | Questionable | Likely Active

Earlier this week, Mark Andrews was not at Ravens team practices, making the fantasy community as a whole nervous about his gameday status. Baltimore head coach Jim Harbaugh told us not to worry, and I think there may have been truth to his words.

Andrews was limited all week, and although there is not a lot of clarity on whether he is nursing a quadriceps strain or quadriceps contusion, I am not sure it matters all that much. The average time missed for these types of injuries is less than one week. 70% of the time that Andrews has popped up on the final injury report, he has suited up for that game. Additionally, since 2017, 82% of the Raven's fantasy-relevant players who have been listed as questionable have played, which ranks in the top third for NFL teams. All signs point to Andrews playing Week 1.

Sunday Update: A bit of a surprise, Ian Rapoport has reported that Mark Andrews will likely not play, although the Ravens have not officially ruled him out. Based on this information it does seem like Andrews is dealing with a quadriceps strain. He was able to practice in a limited capacity this week, and based on this information combined with typical healing times, Week 2 seems likely.

Adam Thielen | Ankle | Questionable | 50/50

If Adam Thielen was not 33 years old, I would say that the chances of him playing Sunday were more likely. However, as we all know, Father Time is undefeated. There is enough evidence that supports older WRs requiring longer recovery times and, in some instances, missing more games when injured. Thielen did practice in a limited role on Friday, leaving the door open for him to start, but he is another player who is truly 50/50 this week.

Saturday Update: Thielen is set to play Sunday per Cameron Wolfe.

Cordarrelle Patterson | Thigh | Questionable | Likely Active

The "thigh" injury label is a vague description of what Cardarrelle Patterson is dealing with heading into Week 1. It could be a quadriceps issue (relatively minor) or a groin issue (typically more serious). Both of these injuries typically result in at least one game missed, with more than 55% of the RB sample missing time. The fact that Patterson practiced all week, although limited, suggests that he plays, but I am not sure he is fantasy-relevant given the circumstances. Bijan Robinson was a top-10 NFL pick, and as a rookie, Tyler Allgier flashed. Tack on the injury, and that's three strikes against Patterson for Week 1. I'd stay away regardless of whether he plays or not.

Marquise Brown | Hamstring | Questionable | 50/50

Another WR - another hamstring injury. Marquise Brown was limited all week with a hamstring injury. Based on his practice participation, I would anticipate he starts this week and is in flex consideration.

Sunday Update: Marquise Brown will start Sunday. I discussed in Jerry Jeudy's section that WRs typically do not fare well right after hamstring injury, but Arizona does not have many passing options. Expect Brown to be heavily involved.

Kendre Miller | Hamstring | Questionable | Likely Inactive

The rookie running back Kendre Miller had a tumultuous offseason. After starting on the PUP, Miller sprained his MCL, returned to action, looked good, and now winds up on the injury report with a hamstring strain. Technically, Miller has already been dealing with this injury for a week, but RBs miss, on average 3 weeks with a hamstring injury, and he has not practiced all week. I'd expect the soonest we see Miller is Week 3. Those who were hoping the rookie might pop with Kamara out for the first three weeks are going to be disappointed. This is Jamaal Williams' backfield now.

Sunday Update: Per NFL Insider Jordan Schultz, Miller is not expected to play.