The legal tampering period always announces the beginning of the new NFL league year, and then as the clock strikes 2:00 pm on March 15, free agency opens in a flurry. Teams rush to sign their new players and announce them to the world. In the ensuing chaos, both interested fans of the NFL and excitable partakers of the great game of fantasy football speculate as to how those new players will impact their favorite teams and their fantasy rosters. So let's dive into the quarterback group that signed deals so far in free agency and see what kind of impact they'll have!
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
Carr signed a four-year, $150 million deal (with $100 million guaranteed) with the Saints about a week before free agency opened, but this was allowed because the Las Vegas Raiders had cut him on February 14. By joining the Saints, Carr immediately steps into a spot where he can be a reliable fantasy QB2 with enough upside to get into QB1 numbers every week due to the presence of a solid wide receiver corps that includes Chris Olave and a recently restructured Michael Thomas.
Carr may have only finished as the QB19 in points per game last season after lofty expectations had him drafted as a top-15 option, but in making a move to the weaker NFC as well as a wide-open division in the NFC South, he should be a quarterback that fantasy players can trust to draft cheaply and get solid production out of.
2023 Fantasy Football Prediction: Finishes as a top-15 quarterback and should be drafted in the QB12-16 range.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders
Taking Carr's spot for the time being is the newly acquired Garoppolo, who came over from the San Francisco 49ers a signed a three-year, $72 million contract with $45 million guaranteed. On the surface, this appears to be a bridge quarterback play for the Raiders. Garoppolo has proven in the past that he can get you where you need to go, but he probably won't elevate your football team to get you a Super Bowl win.
The Raiders also have an out in this contract after one season, so keep an eye on them to draft a quarterback in either this year's draft class or next year's. For fantasy purposes, though, Garoppolo is a very suitable QB2 that you can rely on in Superflex leagues. He shouldn't be too much on your radar for regular 1QB leagues. But he does have access to Davante Adams, so he could play as a streaming quarterback if you are in a 14+ team league.
2023 Fantasy Football Prediction: Finishes as a top-24 quarterback and should not be drafted in 1QB leagues. In Superflex leagues, draft as a QB2 or QB3 only.
Jacoby Brissett, Washington Commanders
Brissett signed a one-year, $8 million deal with $7.5 million guaranteed to play for the Commanders. This seems like it will be a true camp battle between him and returning second-year quarterback Sam Howell after the latter started in Week 18 last season and had a mildly impressive outing.
Brissett is on his fourth franchise in as many years, but there is a belief that the veteran leadership he brings could have the team and Ron Rivera decide he is the right choice to be the starting quarterback to open the 2023 season. He is a shaky QB2 for fantasy if he gets the starting job, and there is a very good chance that he would only be selected in Superflex leagues if he wins that job convincingly. Remember that there is still a chance that he could be replaced by Howell sometime during the season if the team decides to move in a different direction.
2023 Fantasy Football Prediction: Finishes as a top-30 quarterback, closer to 30th. Should not be drafted in 1QB leagues; draft with caution in Superflex leagues as a QB3.
Taylor Heinicke, Atlanta Falcons
I want to group the backups together and grade them in their odds of potentially getting on the field, but I'm not sure that Heinicke completely falls into that group. He signed a two-year, $14 million deal with $6.32 million guaranteed with the Falcons. It's presumed that he will start as the backup to last year's rookie selection Desmond Ridder, but I would assume the two will have a true camp battle, with Ridder having the inside track at the job right now.
2023 Fantasy Football Prediction: While it's likely Ridder starts the season as the starter, there's a chance Heinicke will win the starting job in a surprise finish. If so, he'll be a middling QB2 for fantasy football and should be drafted in Superflex leagues as a back-end QB2.
Backups
There aren't just the starting quarterbacks who signed in free agency; we also have the backups. Instead of going through each individually, I ranked the group by likelihood of getting on the field during their contracts, so you can prioritize who to go after for fantasy. Each quarterback will have a number from 1 to 5 listed next to them, with 1 representing a low level of interest to 5 representing a strong likelihood of them playing this season.
- Baker Mayfield - Tampa Bay: 5
- Gardner Minshew - Indianapolis: 4.5
- Sam Darnold - San Francisco: 4
- Andy Dalton - Carolina: 3
- Mike White - Miami: 3
- Jarrett Stidham - Denver: 2.5
- Case Keenum - Houston: 2
- Marcus Mariota - Philadelphia: 1.5
- Kyle Allen - Buffalo: 1
- Drew Lock - Seattle: 1
- Nick Mullens - Minnesota: 1
- Cooper Rush - Dallas: 1
- P.J. Walker - Chicago: 1
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