4 Overvalued Dynasty QBs

Photo: Philip G. Pavely, USA Today Sports

A great source for evaluating players is comparing a player’s dynasty valuation with the redraft market. To do this, you compared their dynasty valuation with their best ball ADP. Players with higher dynasty valuations than best ball ADPs are overvalued in the near term, while players with higher best ball ADPs than dynasty values are undervalued. This is particularly true later in dynasty drafts when longevity is less of a concern. This article focuses on quarterbacks who are overvalued in Dynasty.

Related: See this subscriber article on undervalued Dynasty quarterbacks >>>

The quarterbacks below are poor targets for win-now Dynasty teams.

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers

Best Ball QB25 – Dynasty QB17

Kenny Pickett had a disappointing rookie season from a fantasy football perspective. Of 35 quarterbacks with 200 or more dropbacks in 2022, Pickett ranked last in passing points per dropback (0.26) and well below his expected passing points per dropback (0.38). The underperformance for Pickett was primarily in his touchdown scoring when he threw seven touchdown passes, well below his nearly 18 expected touchdowns. Pickett ranked 38th in points per game (11.4), and even if he had neutral touchdown luck, Pickett would have scored only as QB25 in points per game. Pickett had some better underlying metrics. For example, his 45.9% dropback success rate ranked 22nd out of 31 qualifiers, and he had league-average sack and interception rates. Pickett has a good opportunity with a quality supporting cast of Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson with Pat Freiermuth, and Najee Harris, but a finish near his best-ball price would cause him to fall in dynasty valuation in 2024.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Best Ball QB19 – Dynasty QB12

Kyler Murray’s best ball rank of QB19 is well behind his dynasty cost of QB12, which is almost entirely explained by doubt about his 2023 season because of his torn ACL. Murray suffered the injury in December, about nine months before Week 1 of the 2023 season. There has been positive news surrounding his rehabilitation, but there is an open question of whether Murray will be available in Week 1, if at all, during 2023. The Cardinals have the lowest team win over/under line of 4.5 wins, which means there is a real chance they are picking at or near the top of the draft in a good quarterback class. This has created speculation about a potential Murray trade, which could create value in the dynasty marketplace. In his first three seasons, Murray ranked 11th, 2nd, and 11th in season-long fantasy points.