3 Quarterbacks Who Are Overvalued

Photo: Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports

The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. To point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the Top 150 and identify players that should underperform their draft position.

Flip Side: See 4 Undervalued Quarterbacks here >>>

Here are the players who received multiple overvalued votes:

• Dak Prescott
• Tua Tagovailoa
• Deshaun Watson

And here is how many votes they got with the reasons why.

Player Receiving 5 Votes

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Ben Cummins: Last year, the Cowboys scored the third-most points (467), and their offense ranked eighth in Expected Points Added per Play. So it was shocking that offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was fired. Head coach Mike McCarthy is the new play caller, and he made his philosophy very clear this offseason by putting a negative spin on statements such as “lighting up the scoreboard” and being the No. 1 offense in the NFL. Now 30 years old, Prescott’s rushing upside has been sapped by age and past injuries, and he’s no longer working with a fantasy-friendly play-caller.

Dan Hindery: Prescott is overvalued due to a lingering misperception about his rushing upside. While he put up decent numbers on the ground his first few seasons, Prescott has averaged just 174.5 rushing yards and 2.0 rushing touchdowns per season since 2019. Over the last two years, he has rushed for a grand total of 328 yards and two touchdowns in 28 games. With little rushing production, Prescott would need to put up massive passing numbers to make a fantasy impact. He is unlikely to do so, given what should be a conservative offensive game plan most weeks due to the elite Cowboys defense.

Dave Kluge: Prescott had a breakout year in 2019, which resulted in many analysts touting him as next year’s potential QB1 in fantasy. An early-season ankle injury ended that 2020 campaign, and we haven’t seen him return to form. After amassing 24 rushing touchdowns in his first four-and-a-half seasons, he’s had just two in the two years since his return from injury. Without the threat of scrambling, defenses are more aggressive in their pass-rushing approach, forcing him to throw more interceptions. In addition to waning efficiency, Mike McCarthy’s offense will likely provide fewer passing attempts than we saw under Kellen Moore. A quarterback needs rushing upside or a lot of volume to hit an elite fantasy ceiling. Unfortunately, Prescott doesn’t possess either.

Jason Wood: Kellen Moore fielded top-five offenses in three of four seasons calling plays in Dallas, including all three healthy seasons with Prescott. Yet, egos overtook logic, and Mike McCarthy wanted to reclaim play-calling, as he did with the Packers. Unfortunately, that means we've likely seen the best of Prescott's years already. Coach "doesn't want to light the scoreboard up" or "be the No. 1 offense in the league." He wants to "run the damn ball so I can rest my defense." Here's the thing, the Cowboys were perennially a top-10 unit in rushing attempts under Moore. But in McCarthy's 13 seasons in Green Bay, the Packers ranked 20th, on average, in rushing attempts. Good luck, Prescott. We'll miss you in the ranks of the fantasy QB1s.

Andy Hicks: During his first three seasons, Prescott was fantasy gold, recording six rushing touchdowns in each season. He has only one each in the last two years. He has also missed significant time in two of his last three seasons as well. Passing 30 years of age, his days as a reliable fantasy quarterback are threatened. Other options simply have a higher upside.

Player Receiving 3 Votes

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Jason Wood: The reason you shouldn't draft Tua Tagovailoa as a starting quarterback in standard leagues has nothing to do with his talent or potential; he possesses both in abundance. Last year, Tagovailoa led the league in touchdown rate (6.3%), yards per attempt (8.9), and passer rating (105.5). Unfortunately, he missed parts of six games due to two confirmed concussions and an unconfirmed third. Genuine concerns arose regarding his potential retirement or ability to continue playing. While he has been cleared and has reaffirmed his commitment to the Dolphins, it becomes exceedingly challenging to construct your fantasy roster around someone who remains vulnerable to a single impactful hit that could sideline him for an extended duration, if not the entire season.

Jeff Bell: Tagovailoa played lights out in Week 8 through 10, playing as the overall QB2 in that stretch. But that stretch featured Lions and Bears defenses that ranked 31st and 32nd in yards per attempt allowed. But the rest of his season was average, finishing outside of QB1 placement in 8 of his 13 games. And then the concussions. Tagovailoa admitted to considering retirement in the offseason following multiple events in 2022. Add it up, and the risk is too significant at QB11.

Chad Parsons: Tagovailoa is a bigger risk at his market cost in dynasty than in redraft, but he carries a legitimate season-ending and possibly career-ending concussion risk every game considering his sequence of previous concussions. Secondarily, there are some heavy fantasy hitters cheaper in cost for redraft this year, like Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith, and the rushing upside of Anthony Richardson.

Player Receiving 2 Votes

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

Ben Cummins: The Browns project to throw more this season and have added weapons for Watson in Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman. After hopefully shaking off the rust last year, Watson could very well turn in a solid season. But Watson wasn’t good when on the field to close out 2022, throwing for just 183.7 passing yards per game and only 7 touchdowns compared to 5 interceptions. The risk isn’t worth the reward with legitimate studs available before him and proven fantasy producers available after him, such as Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith, and Jared Goff.

Gary Davenport: Most fantasy managers appear willing to give Watson a mulligan for last year’s struggles, and given how long his holdout/suspension-related absence from the playing field was, that’s understandable. But it’s a risky proposition just to assume that in 2023 Watson is just going to flip a switch and become the guy he was in 2020, even with the addition of Elijah Moore to Cleveland’s receivers room. We know that Cleveland’s offense is based on the run game. What we don’t know is how much better Watson will be than the quarterback who struggled in a big way in 2022.

The Other 7

There were another seven signal-callers who received attention too. Here they are.