Fantasy leagues aren't won by reacting to last week's box scores; they're won by anticipating what's next. This column breaks down the evolving fantasy landscape, helping you stay ahead of the curve. We'll identify upcoming breakouts and fallouts, and target the right players and teams before your leaguemates notice.
We are entering Week 10, and most fantasy leagues have a few regular-season weeks remaining before the playoffs kick off. Is your team positioned for a run, or do you need a late-season surge to secure a berth?
As we head into Week 10, we hit a bye-week crunch that includes four teams: Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay. If you think this week is bad, wait til Week 11 when six teams are on bye: Atlanta, Cleveland, Green Bay, LA Rams, New England, and Seattle.
Managers who are reliant on starters from these teams will need to scour the waiver wire or test their benches for lineup replacements. Let's take a look at which teams are struggling over the last four weeks that we can capitalize on and exploit to our advantage.
The Footballguys Fantasy Points Allowed Tool is a great resource to help determine which teams have been allowing the most (or least) fantasy points that we can use to our advantage.
Quarterback
Over the last four weeks (Weeks 6–9), the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, and New England Patriots have struggled defending the pass, all allowing an average of over 260 passing yards and multiple scores per game. The combination of those stats is what we want to see and ultimately what we want to exploit.
- NY Jets: 233 passing yards allowed per game with 2.5 passing touchdowns
- Tennessee: 346 passing yards allowed per game with 2.0 passing touchdowns
- New England: 286 passing yards allowed per game with 2.0 passing touchdowns
Exploit These Passing Game Opponents: NY Jets, Tennessee, New England
NY Jets' upcoming schedule
- Week 10: vs. Buffalo Bills
- Week 11: at Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 12: at Miami Dolphins
-
Outlook: The Jets have allowed a league-high 24.1 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the past month. With upcoming divisional games against Josh Allen and company, opposing quarterbacks against the Jets are excellent targets.
Tennessee's upcoming schedule
- Week 10: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Week 11: at Dallas Cowboys
- Week 12: at Jacksonville Jaguars
-
Outlook: The Titans are giving up 346 passing yards per game over their last three games. Going against Trevor Lawrence twice in three weeks, with a trip to Dallas sandwiched in, will be a difficult stretch for the Titans' pass defense.
New England's upcoming schedule
- Week 10: vs. Detroit Lions (Germany)
- Week 11: BYE
- Week 12: at Los Angeles Chargers
-
Outlook: The Patriots are allowing 20.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the last four weeks. New England presents a good matchup for Jared Goff and the Lions this week.
Stay Away from These Passing Game Opponents: Buffalo, Seattle, Minnesota
If you are looking for units to avoid, Buffalo, Seattle, and Minnesota have locked down opposing quarterbacks over the last four weeks, holding opposing quarterbacks under 8.5 fantasy points per game and allowing fewer than 185 passing yards per contest.
Running Back
Finding productive running backs is driven more by volume and opportunity than matchup; however, targeting softer defenses can elevate a borderline RB2 into a weekly winner.
Exploit These Opponents: Atlanta, Houston, and Las Vegas
Atlanta's upcoming schedule
- Week 10: vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Ken Walker III is a given, but Emmett Johnson has come on strong lately and has touchdowns in two consecutive games.
- Week 11: BYE
- Week 12: at Minnesota Vikings. Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones Sr. jump up the ranks a bit this week with this matchup.
-
Outlook: The Falcons lead the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs over the last four weeks, surrendering 34.8 fantasy points per game, anchored by 153 rushing yards and 1.5 touchdowns per contest.
Houston's upcoming schedule
- Week 10: at Cleveland Browns. Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson should be on your radar.
- Week 11: vs. Indianapolis Colts. If Jonathan Taylor is traded, Seth McGowan rises up the depth chart and becomes a fantasy option worth watching.
- Week 12: at Baltimore Ravens. How much of an impact will Jacoby Brissett have on this offense? Derrick Henry could rebound if the offense responds.
-
Outlook: Surprisingly, Houston ranks right near the top, allowing 31.0 fantasy points per contest against opposing backfields over the last three games, including 133 rushing yards per game.
Las Vegas' upcoming schedule
- Week 10: vs. Seattle Seahawks. Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price could be good options this week.
- Week 11: at Denver Broncos. Jonah Coleman is the current top option in the backfield, but that could change in a wide-open backfield.
- Week 12: at Cleveland Browns. Another good matchup for Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson.
-
Outlook: The Raiders continue to struggle against the run, giving up 31.0 fantasy points per game over the past four weeks with 152 rushing yards and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game.
Stay Away from These Rushing Game Opponents: Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Detroit
Tampa Bay, San Francisco, and Detroit have been strong against the run lately, each holding running backs under 16.5 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks. It may be best to avoid these stingy units if your lineup options have some uncertainty.