This article attempts to highlight some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) as well as reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not taken into account so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Michael Pittman Jr (IND vs. TB) vs. Carlton Davis III
A combination of injuries and poor play have plagued the Tampa Bay secondary this week. They are currently allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and had their top 2 corners (Davis and Jamel Dean) leave week 11 with injuries. Pittman is in a prime spot with his high volume and the return of Jonathan Taylor at full strength. Davis is currently allowing 0.59 fantasy points per coverage snap on the perimeter and is being targeted 21% of the time. Pittman can be upgraded, with Alec Pierce getting FLEX consideration on the other side.
WR Stefon Diggs (BUF vs. PHI) vs. Darius Slay
This is one of the most anticipated games of the weekend and what most thought could be a Super Bowl preview. The Bills have not lived up to that recently but have a chance to right the ship against the Eagles. Philadelphia is currently allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers this year. The secondary had once been a strength, with Slay and James Bradberry both playing shadow coverage, but the sheer volume they have faced this year has made them stumble. Diggs is the best bet to continue his high target share, with Gabe Davis also slated to benefit on the other side. Slay currently allows 0.33 fantasy points per coverage snap and has not found his groove like in previous seasons. If the Bills can limit the drops and Josh Allen can protect the ball, this should be one of the more competitive games of the season.
WR Adam Thielen (CAR vs. TEN) vs. Roger McCreary
Not a lot has gone right for Carolina this season outside of Adam Thielen proving he had a lot left in the tank. Bryce Young has struggled to find any consistency outside of Thielen, but that should work to his benefit this week. Thielen has the best matchup against McCreary in the slot who is currently allowing 0.32 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 22% of the time. Neither team has been playing well this season, but look for Young to lean on Thielen again this week. That should provide a high volume of targets and a solid fantasy day at a discounted price.
WR Marquise Brown (ARZ vs. LAR) vs. Duke Shelley
Not a lot has gone right for Brown since the return of Kyler Murray, but that could all change this week with a solid matchup against the Rams. This secondary has not played extremely well and ranks near the middle of the pack in most categories. Shelley has been the biggest liability and is currently allowing 0.55 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 29% of the time. Brown is too talented not to be involved in this offense. Look for his targets to increase this week and for Kyler to start taking shots down the field in his direction.
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