Superflex Draft Strategy

Photo: Timothy T. Ludwig, USA Today Sports

We could call Superflex formats quarterback flex. The position is that important. It is the only position that sees wild fluctuations in average draft position (ADP) value in changing the format. A combination of a safe floor and increasingly rising ceilings of the position with changing NFL offenses featuring rushing quarterbacks increases the value. But one factor weighs in above all: scarcity.

The scoring distribution for the primary starting quarterbacks in 2022 broke down as follows (using full PPR scoring):

The three highest scorers in fantasy were quarterbacks: Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes II. After that, three more quarterbacks (Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Fields) scored as much as elite position players: Justin Jefferson, Austin Ekeler, Cooper Kupp, Christian McCaffrey, and Tyreek Hill.

Moving beyond that group, "average" quarterback production flushes to elite production at other positions. Driving down the bell curve on quarterbacks widens different positions. It becomes a floor play relative to the ceiling elsewhere.

Three primary avenues for navigating the quarterback position in Superflex:

• Doubletap - Start your draft with two elite to high-end options early. Managers with this approach will take two top quarterback options and hammer the remaining positions.
• Early and Late - Grabbing one top-end option, then one in the middle to the later area. This strategy opts for middle-of-the-road safety. Taking one early ensures you have an anchor with a high upside at the position and allows you to play chicken and read when the rest of the league starts flirting with their third quarterback to lock up the second piece.
• Streaming/Late Round - Unlike a one-quarterback league, the scarcity of the position will likely see all starters rostered. Almost every variation of a draft strategy has reasons for fading one position relative to the value of others. Instead of doubling down and over-drafting a quarterback to fill the position, this allows players to build strong lineups throughout their roster and then relies on taking multiple later-round quarterbacks, ideally three or four, to work the best matchups. You can pay off this way, but the position scarcity sticks you if caught on the wrong side of a run.

The distribution chart shows a dropoff after the top 16 quarterbacks. ADP currently holds 16 quarterbacks in the first four rounds. You can do the math. Waiting through the first four or five rounds to take your quarterback commits you to start to throw picks at the position frequently. Waiting beyond that window will leave players chasing through the entire season. With three teams in your league putting 24 or more points per game at the position and another three putting 20 or more in, the wide band of quarterbacks averaging less than 14 points per game sees nearly a double-digit hurdle weekly.

Quarterbacks are important.

But how do you navigate the position round by round?

This walkthrough is based on 12-team leagues. Variations of that league size either increase or decrease the value of quarterbacks in concert. Here, the Footballguys Draft Dominator can help you with these variations. In short, play in a 16-team league? Grab QBs immediately. Play in an eight-team league? Valuations will look closer to one QB format.

The Elite Eight

Round 1: Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence

This group takes up anywhere from the first eight to twelve picks in your draft. Jefferson, Chase, Kelce, and McCaffrey are usually the players who get spliced within. One factor determines your decision with this group: you are very unlikely to get one of this tier coming back.

Picks at the top of the draft had a significant advantage based on last year's scoring. The difference between pick three in Hurts and four in Burrow was four points per game. Quarterbacks after that first three have the ceiling to break out into the top tier without some risk on the next group.

Key Decision Point: If you want an elite quarterback, take an elite quarterback if they are available. But you can survive with one of the position players hitting their ceiling and still build in quarterback upside.

• QBs Gone: 8
• QBs Remaining: 24

The Enigmas