The Curious Case of Brock Purdy

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The fantasy football industry has evolved dramatically over the past 25 years. What began as a niche hobby for a handful of football fanatics who delighted in statistical analysis has transformed into a multi-billion-dollar industry. This industry employs tens of thousands of people, all tasked with helping millions of customers to succeed.

As the industry has expanded, so too has the collective talent and expertise of the analysts within it. These analysts now dissect every player, team, and scenario from nearly every conceivable angle. Having had the great privilege to be part of the industry since its earliest days, I can confidently assert that Brock Purdy is among the most challenging players to analyze in the history of the industry.

An Unlikely Timeline

• Predicted to be a priority free agent after graduating from Iowa State.
• Chosen as "Mr. Irrelevant" with the final pick of the 2022 draft.
• The 49ers were wholly invested in Trey Lance and retained veteran Jimmy Garoppolo as a safety net.
• Lance was injured in Week 2, thrusting Garoppolo back into the spotlight.
• Garoppolo sustained an injury in Week 13, which led to Purdy's insertion.
• The rookie not only succeeded but thrived, steering the 49ers to an offensive resurgence and the NFC Championship Game.
• Purdy tore his UCL in the NFC Championship Game, which raised doubts about his readiness for the 2023 season.
• The 49ers signed veteran Sam Darnold during the offseason and refused to entertain trade offers for Lance.
• In the initial days of training camp, Purdy was surprisingly cleared to return to practice and team drills.

Even Unlikelier Statistics

Purdy isn't the first young quarterback to step into a playoff-caliber team and maintain stability. Two of the best-known examples are Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger. Brady played the role of game manager when he took over for Drew Bledsoe, and Roethlisberger's task during his first Super Bowl season was to avoid mistakes. However, Purdy didn't merely hand off the ball and avoid turnovers; he elevated an already efficient 49ers offense to an elite level.

Let's first examine the team offense, with and without Purdy.

Table: 49ers Offense, Before and With Brock Purdy

The offense surged, delivering nearly ten more points per game, primarily due to a substantial increase in efficiency. The number of plays per game and total yards slightly improved, but the points-per-play, especially touchdown efficiency, soared.

This leads us to Purdy's performance:

• 6-0 (Purdy started five games but came in early in Week 13 against Miami)
• 110 completions
• 161 attempts
• 68.3% completion rate
• 1,308 passing yards
• 8.1 yards per attempt
• 13 passing touchdowns
• 8.1% touchdown rate
• 3 interceptions
• 10 rushing yards

For context, this is what his six-game run looks like pro-rated over a full 17-game schedule:

• 312 completions
• 456 attempts
• 3,706 passing yards
• 36.8 passing touchdowns
• 8.5 interceptions
• 28 rushing yards
• 298 fantasy points

Where would 298 fantasy points rank in a season?

• 2018 – QB10
• 2019 – QB6
• 2020 – QB12
• 2021 – QB12
• 2022 – QB8
• 5-Year Average – QB10

The Supporting Cast is Exemplary

Before evaluating the sustainability of Purdy's 2022 performance, we need to acknowledge his favorable circumstances.

• Head coach Kyle Shanahan is a proven offensive mastermind.
• Running back Christian McCaffrey is arguably the league's best, especially as a receiver.
• Receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk rank among the best duos in the NFC.
• Tight end George Kittle is a top-5 playmaker at his position.
• The offensive line is a top-10 unit, as per Footballguys offensive line expert Matt Bitonti.

So, are we implying that Brock Purdy could be a top-10 quarterback this year?

ABSOLUTELY NOT.