AFC
Baltimore
The Ravens signed WR Odell Beckham to a one-year, $15 million guaranteed deal.
Why It Matters: This move greatly increases the chances of Jackson and the Ravens settling their contract differences. Jordan Schultz of The Score reports that Jackson and Beckham have had multiple conversations about teaming up on the Ravens to win a Super Bowl, so it appears likely that this signing was a concession to Jackson to move negotiations forward. Fifteen million guaranteed is a lot for a player who is coming off of an ACL tear and hasn’t played in over a year, but Beckham gives the Ravens the most credible version of a #1 wide receiver that they have had in the Jackson era. Combine that with the addition of offensive coordinator Todd Monken - who skewed pass-heavy during his time in the same role at Georgia (with great success) - and you have a recipe for a strong fantasy season from Jackson, assuming he and the Ravens find a suitable middle ground.
Cincinnati
A criminal charge of “aggravated menacing” has been re-filed against RB Joe Mixon.
Why It Matters: Like the Dalvin Cook and Austin Ekeler open-ended situations, the fate of Mixon with the Bengals has appeared to be indefinite limbo despite the team adding no one of consequence in free agency and letting Samaje Perine walk in free agency to the Denver Broncos. This could create some movement and give the Bengals a good reason to release Mixon, who experienced a decline in efficiency last year and might not find a strong market for his services if the Bengals release him. They would save almost four million in cap space if they do let Mixon go, and that still seems to be the most likely outcome.
NY Jets
Adam Schefter said Green Bay “seems quite content to wait until after the draft to make a trade” and that “both sides seem to be dug in” regarding the possible Aaron Rodgers trade. However, GM Joe Douglas told Boomer Esiason, “He’s going to be here,” in reference to Rodgers.
Why It Matters: It sounds like we shouldn’t expect anything to happen until the second day of the draft, if then. Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk believes the trade will happen during the second round since the Jets have two picks in the round, and deadlines spur action. We should still project Rodgers to pilot the Jets offense and Jordan Love to pilot the Packers offense, but since Rodgers is involved, there’s a very slim but non-zero chance that this situation hasn’t had its last twist or turn.
Rich Cimini of ESPN reported that RB Breece Hall is “expected to be ready for Week 1.”
Why It Matters: Head coach Robert Saleh also said Hall “looks fantastic” recently. Hall was on his way to being a league winner before tearing his ACL last year. We should expect that he’ll pick up where he left off if this report is correct, although, like most players returning from ACL surgery, we should monitor his rehab and work in training camp for any setbacks and bake into our projection that he could start slow. Hall has an ADP right around the turn between the second and third rounds in early Underdog drafts, but that will be a value if he returns to 2022 form in the first half of the season.
Tennessee
The Titans signed DT Jeffery Simmons to a four-year, $94 million deal.
Why It Matters: The Titans selected Simmons with the 19th pick in 2019 when they hosted the draft, which was a bit anticlimactic as he was sidelined by an ACL tear. Good things come to those who wait, and the Titans scored a massive hit with the pick. Only Aaron Donald is making more at defensive tackle than Simmons. Simmons is a team captain and the team’s signature player heading into an era that will eventually not include Ryan Tannehill or Derrick Henry.
NFC
Arizona
Head coach Jonathan Gannon said, “When he’s ready to come, he’ll come,” in reference to DeAndre Hopkins participating in the offseason workouts.
Why It Matters: Trading for Hopkins seemed like a steal for the Cardinals in 2020, but now they are finding a very tepid market for his services and might not get more than the Cowboys gave up to get Brandin Cooks - a fifth and sixth-round pick - Hopkins is due a little under $20 million in the last two years of his contract, so it’s not astronomical by current wide receiver standards. The Texans had to pick up some of Cooks contract to get the deal done with Dallas, and the Cardinals may still have to do the same. It’s also possible that any team trading for Hopkins would want to re-work his contract, and former Cardinals GM Steve Keim recently said that contract negotiations with Hopkins were not easy because the wide receiver was his own agent. There are a lot of moving parts for a trade to happen, and Hopkins might stay away from the team until it does.
Adam Schefter reports that at least six teams have contacted the Cardinals about trading up to the #3 pick.
Why It Matters: It’s clear that quarterbacks will go first and second in the draft, although we’re not sure which two of Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, and Florida’s Anthony Richardson will go 1-2, and in what order. The current odds point to the draft starting Stroud and then Young, leaving Richardson as the prize for anyone looking to trade up to #3. There is a clear #1 non-quarterback in this class in Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson, so new general manager Monti Ossenfort has some leverage in a deal. Richardson has the highest ceiling of any quarterback in this draft and presumably would be a strong candidate to go #4 to Indianapolis if the Cardinals stay put and take Anderson. The more likely outcome is that a team trades up to #3, either one leapfrogging the Colts or the Colts themselves to prevent that from happening. This would then still allow the Cardinals to take Anderson, or perhaps even trade down again to a team wanting to come up for the #4 quarterback in the class, Kentucky’s Will Levis. The true suspense will start at #3 in the draft, and the Cardinals hold the cards at this moment.
Atlanta
The Falcons traded a fifth-round pick to Detroit for CB Jeff Okudah.
Why It Matters: The Lions took Okudah No. 3 overall in 2020, so they are cutting bait on a failed pick. Okudah suffered season-ending injuries in each of his first two seasons, including an Achilles tear in 2021, so we might not have seen the best of him yet. The Lions will avoid paying Okudah over five million guaranteed this year on the last year of his rookie deal, and the Falcons will have to decide whether to pick up his fifth-year option after the deal. Expect the answer to be no, as the team has him compete with veteran Casey Hayward to start opposite A.J. Terrell. It can still be a very beneficial trade for the Falcons if Okudah finds himself this season in time for them either to sign him to a long-term extension or recoup a better compensatory pick in 2025 than the #159 pick they gave up to get the Ohio State product.
NY Giants
Kim Jones of Newsday reports that she was told RB Saquon Barkley won’t sign the franchise tag and, therefore, won’t be eligible to participate in the offseason program starting Monday.
Why It Matters: Just how hard it is out there for running backs continues to be a theme of the 2023 offseason. Ralph Vacchiano of Fox Sports reports that the team isn’t interested in signing Barkley to a long-term deal, so it’s hard to see what Barkley’s angle here, other than showing his displeasure with being expected to play for just a little over 10 million dollars this year. Expect him to play on the tag, and if he is successful, the Giants can still tag him again for a little over 12 million, which would amount to a two-year, $22 million extension, probably about what he would find on the open market.
Tampa Bay
Jenna Laine of ESPN reports that LB Devin White has requested a trade.
Why It Matters: White is entering his fifth-year option on his rookie deal from the 2019 draft, and it sounds like he and the team are not close in extension negotiations. White has said he wants to be the highest-paid linebacker in the league, but he is not coming off of his best season, and the team is not going to give him a $20 million per year deal this offseason. No one will trade a premium pick for White at this point in the league calendar, and there might not be a team that would give him the deal even if he cost nothing in a trade. A holdout is possible here, but White would only hurt his future standing since he has to improve his play to deserve the contract he seeks. If the Buccaneers take a linebacker early in the draft, they will tell us all we need to know about White’s future with the team.
Washington
Sportico has announced that "Dan Snyder has reached an agreement in principle to sell the Commanders for $6 billion to a group led by Philadelphia 76ers co-owner Josh Harris. The group includes billionaire Mitchell Rales and former NBA star Magic Johnson."
Why It Matters: Soon-to-be former owner Dan Snyder has dominated the news lately for all of the wrong reasons. Hopefully, the sale portends good things for the future of the Commanders.
