Thursday Showdown Week 6

Photo: Kim Klement, USA Today Sports

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

Unsurprisingly, Vegas doesn't expect much drama tonight. The Chiefs are double-digit divisional favorites, even with Travis Kelce's (ankle) status up in the air. However, since the Chiefs don't cover the spread particularly often (12-13 in their last 25), Vegas only projects a so-so 47.5 points tonight. They tend to conserve energy and let teams hang around; many are expecting a 27-17 type of battle.

One way or another, most of the Showdown field will be cramming in four or five Chiefs. It's hard not to, as the Broncos are dreadful while the Chiefs are red-hot and well-rested. Still, our job tonight is to find the right players – and the low-rostered ones – from both teams.

Injury Roundup

All eyes will be on the Travis Kelce reports this evening. Kelce practiced on a limited basis this week, but he may not be needed much (if at all) against the pitiful Broncos.

For the Broncos, Javonte Williams will return to the featured back role after sitting Week 5.

Captain Consideration

• Isiah Pacheco
• Patrick Mahomes II
• Travis Kelce
• Russell Wilson
• Rashee Rice

Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes II (CPT or FLEX)

Mahomes is the Chiefs' best player, but he's not always asked to be a fantasy dynamo. He's been efficient and methodical, yet he's only cleared 20 DraftKings points twice. Not even 41 attempts in last week's close win over the burnable Vikings could get him there. Gone are the days of 75-yard Tyreek Hill touchdowns being sprinkled into the mix. Not to mention, game flow could easily pull Mahomes from this game early.

Running Back

Isiah Pacheco (CPT or FLEX)
Jerick McKinnon (FLEX only)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (FLEX only)

Pacheco, as always, makes for a great differentiation play at Captain. Much of the field will zig with Mahomes in anticipation of big air numbers. I'll be zagging with Pacheco, hoping to cash in with short touchdowns. I'll also have increasing volume on my side: he's dominated the early downs this year, claiming 67% of the running back carries. Given the Vegas expectations, any fewer than 18-20 touches – with a handful near the goal line – would be an upset

Edwards-Helaire is the clear backup to Pacheco, not even a change-of-pace type. He's seen just 15 snaps over the past 2 weeks. McKinnon is the clear preference when differentiating from Pacheco. He's the pass-down leader by a mile, and he even sees usage near the goal line.