Underdog Pick 'Em Week 2

Photo: Kareem Elgazzar, USA Today Sports

Underdog's Fantasy Pick ‘Em is a fun way to test our powers of prediction against the market. The two keys to success are picking the best players to target and taking advantage of correlations where we can increase our odds. You play Pick ‘Em by simply choosing "Higher" or "Lower" on at least two player props. If you choose successfully, this is the payout structure:

• Two picks = 3X
• Three picks = 6X
• Four picks = 10X
• Five picks = 20X

In this weekly article, we will list our favorite plays of the week and the reasoning behind them.

Week 1 Review

Overall (5-5) We hit on just half of our choices overall last week and came up just shy of a big win. The closest we got was nearly hitting a 10X on 49ers-Steelers Higher picks. Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk each got where we needed (basically by halftime), but George Pickens, on the other side, came up 6.5 yards short of the 42.5 we needed despite catching five of seven targets.

Lessons learned: Do not doubt Anthony Richardson. I put too much stock in the low preseason completion percentage and did not expect Richardson to go out and complete 24 passes in his NFL debut. I am not betting against the talented rookie again anytime soon.

Season Total (-3.0 units)

On to Week 2.

Bengals-Ravens Overs

With three picks, we have a chance to 6X our entry amount. Focusing on one game, we are able to get some positive correlations. The angle here is a belief that the Bengals offense will bounce back after a disastrous Week 1 in Cleveland. It is easier to write off that poor performance given that the Bengals have struggled against the Browns regularly despite having a great offensive season, Joe Burrow being rusty after missing almost all of camp, and the conditions were terrible.

QB Joe Burrow

Higher than 0.5 Total Yards

This one is easy. We want to take advantage of the Underdog promotion to get a free square with Burrow. As long as there is not an Aaron Rodgers situation, this is a lock.

QB Lamar Jackson

Higher than 44.5 Rushing Yards

• In his last six games against the Bengals, Jackson's median rushing yardage is 76.5. Jackson has rushed for at least 58 yards in all but one game against the Bengals and that was a 2020 blowout in which the Bengals scored just only three points.
• While the expectation is that Jackson will rush a bit less in the new Todd Monken offense, there are going to be weeks when he will be used more often. In a huge division matchup that should be close the whole way, expect the team to take advantage of Jackson's legs more than they did in the 25-9 Week 1 victory over the Texans.

WR Ja'Marr Chase

Higher than 0.5 TDs

• Chase has scored in three of five career matchups against the Ravens.
• For his career, Chase averages 7.8 catches for 109.2 yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game against Baltimore.
• When Chase was held without a touchdown last season, he scored a touchdown in the next game four out of five times.
• Chase has gone back-to-back regular season games without a touchdown only three times in his NFL career.

"Good players always bounce back. There's a saying, you're going to get yours more than you get got. So, it's just about how you respond to it."

Why Ja'Marr Chase is expecting a bounce back game against the Ravens: https://t.co/AULJjLnSU7

— Kelsey Conway (@KelseyLConway) September 15, 2023

• The Ravens will be without their two best defensive backs. Safety Marcus Williams suffered a pectoral injury in Week 1 that will keep him out "a while." Cornerback Marlon Humphrey has an outside chance of playing but has yet to practice after having surgery on his foot on August 16th. He looks doubtful.