Underdog Pick 'Em Week 17

Photo: Junfu Han, USA Today Sports

Join the Footballguys Daily Update

Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.

Subscribe Now

WEEK 16 REVIEW

Overall Picks (11-1 on the week, 113-91-2 on the season)

Overall Units (+17 last week, +26 Units on the season)

(3-1, -1 Unit) Bengals-Steelers 10X This was a miss on the Steelers side. Despite Mason Rudolph throwing for 290 yards, none of them went to Pat Freiermuth (26.5). It was a bummer because all three legs of the Bengals side hit comfortably. Jake Browning (239.5) threw for 335 yards. Tee Higgins (57.5) had 140 receiving yards, and Tyler Boyd (33.5) caught five passes for 59 yards.

( 4-0, +9 Units) Ravens-49ers 10X We ended up on the right side of all of four props in this Pick ‘Em. Isaiah Likely (36.5) had 56 receiving yards. Gus Edwards (46.5 Rush + Rec) had 70 total yards. Brock Purdy (252.5) just barely topped his passing yardage total, with 255 yards before leaving the game with an injury. Brandon Aiyuk (63.5) continued his torrid production at home, with 113 receiving yards. He has now topped 100 yards in five-of-six home games.

(4-0, +9 Units) Giants-Eagles 10X The triple Eagles stack hit. As noted in last week’s article, in seven-of-nine games Jalen Hurts had thrown for 290-plus yards, both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had 75-plus receiving yards. Make than 8-of-10. Jalen Hurts (230.5) threw for 301. A.J. Brown (72.5) had 81 receiving yards, and DeVonta Smith (55.5) had 79 yards. We took Darius Slayton (26.5) on the other side, and he led the Giants with 90 receiving yards.

Lessons learned: Week 16 was fun. We were a bad Pat Freiermuth game from a clean sweep. From a process perspective, the Eagles triple stack felt like like a sharp play at the time given the massive correlations between Hurts, Brown, and Smith. This is a trio that will potentially be worth coming back to in the future. When Hurts hits big, it is almost always accompanied by big days for his top two targets.

Week 17 Picks

LIONS-COWBOYS 6X

The Lions offense has consistently outperformed expectations when playing indoors. The speed of guys like Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams is especially difficult for opposing defenses to deal with on turf in perfect conditions. From the perspective of “eye test,” both Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams have looked especially dangerous over the past two weeks.

Dak Prescott

Higher than 0.5 Total Yards

• We are getting a “free square” this week, which we need to take advantage of. Barring an injury on the opening series, Prescott is a lock to throw for more than 0.5 yards.

Jahmyr Gibbs

Higher than 48.5 Rushing Yards

• Gibbs has come on strong as a runner. He has at least 54 rushing yards in five straight games.
• Since Week 11, Gibbs is averaging 72.0 rushing yards per game.
• We have seen Gibbs’ passing-game usage decrease in the second half of the season. He has not turned into the target monster some hoped for. However, he is seeing increased usage as a runner, averaging 11.2 carries per game despite the presence of David Montgomery.

WOW #Lions Jahmyr Gibbs ranks among RBs:

1st in YPC (5.7)

1st in 20+ yard rushes (10)

2nd in consecutive games with 50+ scrimmage yards (13)

3rd in percentage of rushes gaining 10+ yards (16.2%)

4th in rushing yards before contact (368)

(H/T @LionsPR) pic.twitter.com/8LZhMRThMC

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) December 28, 2023

• The Cowboys elite defense has shown signs of weakness against the run recently. Last week, Dolphins running backs combined for 103 rushing yards. The week before, James Cook ran for 179 yards against Dallas.

Jameson Williams

Higher than 31.5 Rush + Rec Yards

• While Williams may never fully live up to his pre-draft hype, he is quietly turning into a dangerous weapon for the Lions offense and building chemistry with Jared Goff.
• Over the past two weeks Williams has averaged 4.5 catches for 45.0 yards on 6.5 targets per game.

Lions WR Jameson Williams making two defenders miss on this one. We're starting to see Goff trust Jamo more and more each week. #OnePride pic.twitter.com/4XL2nlcHDl

— Russell Brown (@RussNFLDraft) December 28, 2023

• We are also getting solid value by including his rushing yardage in this Pick ‘Em selection. 16.2% of Williams’ career yardage has come on the ground.

CARDINALS-EAGLES 10X

The theory of this play is simple — whenever Jalen Hurts has a big game (290-plus yards), Brown and Smith have both topped 75 receiving yards in 80% of those games. Over the past two seasons, we have had these three-man Eagles passing game blowup spots in more than 25% of the games in which Hurts has played.

Jalen Hurts

Higher than 242.5 Passing Yards

• Hurts has eight games this season with 277-plus passing yards. He has comfortably cleared 242.5 passing yards in over half of his games.
• Hurts had been in a minor slump heading into last week, but some of that was due to a string of difficult defensive matchups. He predictably got back on track against the Giants (301 passing yards). Hurts should be able to keep that momentum going against a middling Cardinals defense.

A.J. Brown

Higher than 79.5 Receiving Yards

• The Eagles have one of the narrowest receiving distribution trees in the NFL. Virtually the entire pass offense for Philadelphia flows through A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.
• The narrow passing tree means we know that if Hurts throws for 242.5-plus yards, Brown and Smith are also extremely likely to hit their individual receiving overs.

First WR duo in franchise history to each have 1000+ yards receiving in back-to-back seasons. pic.twitter.com/g8uZvcNRb9

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) December 28, 2023

• Over the past two years, Hurts has thrown for 290—plus yards 10 times. Brown has topped 80 receiving yards in 90% of those games.

DeVonta Smith

Higher than 53.5 Receiving Yards

• When Hurts and Brown have big games, so does Smith. He has at least 75 receiving yards in 90% of the games in which Hurts has thrown for 290-plus yards over the past two seasons.

“We got 2 weeks. I got a lot of faith we’ll put it together by the time the playoffs come.”

— DeVonta Smith pic.twitter.com/GUGJfPdhZG

— Word On The Birds (@WordOnTheBirds) December 28, 2023

_
• Smith is on a heater. He has 73-plus receiving yards in five of his last six games.
• Since Week 11, Smith has averaged 6.0 catches for 83.8 yards on 7.8 target per game. For the second-straight season, his receiving prop has been a major value throughout the entire second half of the season.

James Conner

Higher than 13.5 Rushing Attempts

• Conner has topped 13.5 rushing attempts in 7-of-11 games overall this season.
• In health games in which Conner played at least 49% of the snaps, he has topped 13.5 carries in 77.7% of his outings.
• Teams are consistently running on the Eagles in the second half of the 2023 season. Since Week 11, every single starting running back to face the Eagles has carried the ball at least 16 times.

Week 16 - Saquon Barkley (23 carries)

Week 15 - Ken Walker (19 carries)

Week 14 - Tony Pollard (16 carries)

Week 13 - Christian McCaffrey (17 carries)

Week 12 - James Cook (16 carries)

Week 11 - Isiah Pacheco (19 carries)

DOLPHINS-RAVENS 6X

We hit on a very similar Pick ‘Em last week that included Gus Edwards, Isaiah Likely, and the Ravens’ opponents top wide receiver. We will stick to the same formula this week. The belief here is that Gus Edwards and Isaiah Likely remain undervalued by the market in the wake of injuries to Keaton Mitchell and Mark Andrews. This excellent Baltimore offense runs through Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Likely, and Edwards. On the other side of the ball, the Ravens have given up some big games to opposing WR1s. Plus, Tyreek Hill is likely to see a massive share of team targets with Jaylen Waddle likely out.

Gus Edwards

Higher than 39.5 Rushing Yards

• While the matchup is difficult against a Miami defense that is allowing just 2.7 yards per carry, Edwards projects for 10-plus carries in this spot. With the injury to Keaton Mitchell, the Ravens backfield is down to a two-man committee between Edwards and Justice Hill. Edwards has averaged 44.5 rushing yards per game since Mitchell went down.

Isaiah Likely

Higher than 43.5 Receiving Yards

• Likely has three straight games with 56-plus receiving yards.
• Over the last three weeks, he has averaged 69.7 yards on 5.7 targets per game. For the season, likely is averaging an 9.6 yards per target. He is playing like a player deserving of even more opportunity each week. He is not only putting up numbers, but passing the “eye test” with flying colors.

Isaiah Likely’s last 4 games:

- 17 catches
- 249 rec yards
- 2 TDs
- 14.6 ypc

Likely is stepping up in a MASSIVE way. pic.twitter.com/RNIZ24pEmL

— Zach Bollinger (@zachbollinger18) December 28, 2023

Tyreek Hill

Higher than 92.5 Receiving Yards

• In Hill’s last three health games, he has put up 405 receiving yards, topping 100 yards in each game.
• Hill has topped 99 yards in 9-of-14 games (64.3%) this season.
• Due to the injury that cost him Week 15 and limited his production in Week 16, Hill is unlikely to hit his goal of 2,000 receiving yards. However, he still has an outside shot. Hill needs 359 more receiving yards this season to reach 2K.
• Since Week 12, the three best wide receivers the Ravens have given up 100-yard games to three different wide receivers (Brandon Aiyuk, Cooper Krupp, and Keenan Allen).
• The otherwise stout Ravens defense has given up the 11th-most fantasy points above expectation to opposing wide receivers over the past five weeks.