Zero Wide Receiver Drafting In Best Ball

Photo: Christopher Hanewinckel, USA Today Sports

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This article is taken from the 2023 Footballguys Best Ball Guide. To download the full 60+ page guide for free, click here.

Also, note that the principles, while specifically written here for Best Ball leagues, can also be applied to your regular redraft leagues.

Against the Grain

Zero WR has become the black sheep of fantasy football drafting strategies. The premise of the process is that you do not draft any wide receivers until the middle rounds, giving yourself an advantage at the running back position while hopefully locking up elite quarterbacks and tight ends. Historically, there are archetypes of receivers to target in the middle rounds that will likely break out and give you WR1 production. Typically, you want to target young and ascending players with a path to lead their team in targets. In 2021, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, DK Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, Tyler Lockett, and Adam Thielen all finished inside the top 12 despite being drafted outside the fourth round. In 2022, Jaylen Waddle, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Amari Cooper, DeVonta Smith, and Christian Kirk followed suit.

Of course, by utilizing this strategy, you are missing out on the surefire WR1s early in the draft. Last year, eight of the top 10 wide receivers in preseason ADP finished inside the top 10. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel were the only exceptions. Evans had a historically inefficient season by his standards. Samuel was on-pace for a top-10 finish before a midseason trade for Christian McCaffrey. As a collective, the fantasy football industry is pretty sharp at projecting wide receiver output and not quite as good at predicting running backs.

But when others zig, you can zag. Especially in Best Ball drafts, there is a trend of drafting wide receivers early. Not having to make start/sit decisions in Best Ball makes the weekly volatility of wide receivers more appealing. The weekly volume and consistency of running backs make them more desirable in managed leagues. Additionally, with the inability to use waivers, an injury to an early-round running back could be detrimental to your Best Ball season. Running backs, naturally, tend to get injured more frequently.

The Argument for Zero WR

This guide aims to give you the pros and cons of every strategy to help you make an informed decision.

The main argument for drafting Zero WR is that the bellcow running back is starting to dissipate from the NFL. In the 1990s, over half of the teams had a running back who would eclipse 250 carries each year. On average, about two running backs per year would see over 350 carries. However, since 2010, the number of 250-carry rushers has been nearly cut in half. Since 2015, Derrick Henry is the only player to exceed 350 carries in a single season, and he only did it once.