Every year, the early NFL season lulls us into a false sense of predictability, then a week comes and makes us second-guess everything. This year, that was Week 7.
Heading into Sunday, the common thought about the Dolphins was that they were trotting Malik Willis out as a sacrificial lamb on their way to a 0-17 finish. Well, they won a divisional game against the Jets, and Willis was fantasy's QB5 on the week.
Another common thought was that adding Ken Walker III was the missing piece the Chiefs have been searching for. Against his former team, Walker was bottled up for a season-low 57 scrimmage yards, logging just 3.2 yards per touch in an embarrassing primetime loss.
So how much do we react to these midseason surprises? Week 7 is just one of seven games, about 14% of what we've seen so far, and by the end of the fantasy season it'll be less than 6%. Single games like these are mostly variance. That doesn't mean we ignore them, but it's why this series exists.
Building a preseason baseline and making thoughtful weekly changes lets us react without overreacting.
For instance, Willis was my preseason QB18. He was a steady faller through early season, bottoming out at QB28 last week. But his 32.1-point Week 7 outing showed the upside that made him an alluring late-round pick. Does that mean I should move him right back to his preseason ranking? Of course not. He'll move up slightly, to QB25, but I can't overreact. Before this big outing, we learned of a much lower floor than preseason projections accounted for.
I was too low on Walker this preseason. I'm sorry to anyone who followed my advice. He was my preseason RB11, and I moved him up to RB9, RB7, RB4, and RB3 over the next four weeks. He's held down that RB3 spot since, behind only Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson. Is his down performance an opportunity to say, "Ha! I told you he wasn't a top-ten running back!" Of course not! I was wrong on my preseason call, but these rankings have adjusted to absorb that miss, along with the rest. Similarly, they won't react to a one-off game after we saw elite upside in his first five games.
If these storylines persist into next week, I'll adjust more. If they revert to pre-Week 7 norms, they'll likely move back to their previous rankings.
We're nearly halfway through the fantasy season. What we've seen over the last seven weeks outweighs our preseason expectations. But that doesn't mean every game warrants a drastic overreaction. Staying disciplined week over week keeps the process on track while giving us a chance to reset.
As a reminder, all movers will be noted with a "+" or "-" showing the change from last week's rankings. Players with a "+" next to their name rose from last week, with a number showing how much they've risen. Players with a "-" are noted with their fall from last week's rankings. Significant movers will have a write-up explaining the change. New additions to the rankings will be marked as "New." Use these rankings to guide waiver wire moves and trade decisions. Target risers, cut fallers, and try to improve your roster where you can.
Let's dive in.
Rest-Of-Season Fantasy Football Rankings
Rest-Of-Season Quarterback Rankings
It was a pretty quiet week at QB, with very few major changes. A few guys shuffled after their games, but J.J. McCarthy and Daniel Jones were the only major movers. Given the injuries and quarterback shuffling we've seen early in the season, a calm week is welcome.
- QB1 - Josh Allen
- QB2 - Drake Maye
- QB3 - Brock Purdy
- QB4 - Caleb Williams (+1)
- QB5 - Lamar Jackson (-1)
- QB6 - Joe Burrow
- QB7 - Jayden Daniels (+1)
- QB8 - Jared Goff (+1)
- QB9 - Patrick Mahomes II (-2)
- QB10 - Dak Prescott
- QB11 - Trevor Lawrence
- QB12 - Matthew Stafford (+1)
- QB13 - Bryce Young (-1)
- QB14 - Jordan Love (+2)
- QB15 - Tyler Shough (-1)
- QB16 - Kyler Murray (-1)
- QB17 - C.J. Stroud
- QB18 - Bo Nix
- QB19 - Michael Penix Jr. (+2)
- QB20 - Kirk Cousins (-1)
- QB21 - Deshaun Watson (-1)
- QB22 - Justin Herbert
- QB23 - Aaron Rodgers (+2)
- QB24 - J.J. McCarthy (+9) - McCarthy got the start in Week 7, and Jay Glazer said that move will be "for the long term." With Jaxson Dart out for the year, the Giants will explore what they have in McCarthy. He looked better than most expected in Week 7. He made some big-time throws but didn't score a touchdown or run much. Those factors kept his fantasy production in check, but he otherwise played an impressive game, completing 20-of-28 passes for 252 yards and committing no turnovers. McCarthy has displayed early chemistry with Malik Nabers, which should make his job easy. If McCarthy can keep getting the ball to Nabers while using his legs more, he has legitimate QB1 upside. At worst, he's in the immediate conversation as a starter in two-quarterback and superflex leagues.
- QB25 - Malik Willis (+3)
- QB26 - Geno Smith (-2)
- QB27 - Sam Darnold (-1)
- QB28 - Baker Mayfield (-1)
- QB29 - Cam Ward
- QB30 - Daniel Jones (-7) - The Colts' brass expressed faith in Jones after Week 7's 16-10 loss to the Vikings, but their commitment to Jones is becoming increasingly concerning. Of 34 quarterbacks with 100-plus dropbacks this year, Jones' EPA per play ranks 30th. The Colts are 2-5. He has looked nothing like the guy we saw last season, leading to the logical conclusion that last year's early-season success was a bit flukey. There was hope that Jones could be the guy he was last year and offer enough rushing to sneak into the back-end QB1 discussion. But he's the per-game QB39, and he looks set to be benched. He's off the radar in most leagues, and managers in two-quarterback and superflex leagues who are rostering him should look to trade him for whatever they can.
- QB31 - Tanner McKee (-1)
- QB32 - Jacoby Brissett (-1)
- QB33 - Jameis Winston (-1)
- QB34 - Fernando Mendoza
- QB35 - Jalon Daniels
- QB36 - Tyler Huntley
- QB37 - Carson Beck (+10) - After falling to 2-5, the Cardinals may make a quarterback switch soon. Beck is worth a stash in two-quarterback and superflex leagues.
- QB38 - Joe Milton III
- QB39 - Justin Fields (+1)
- QB40 - Carson Wentz (-3)
- QB41 - Shedeur Sanders (-2)
- QB42 - Mac Jones (-1)
- QB43 - Ty Simpson (+3)
- QB44 - Tyson Bagent (-1)
- QB45 - Drew Lock (-1)
- QB46 - Tua Tagovailoa (-1)
- QB47 - Marcus Mariota (+1)
- QB48 - Riley Leonard (+1)
- QB49 - Gardner Minshew II (+4)
- QB50 - Case Keenum (+1)
- QB51 - Will Howard (+1)
- QB52 - Joe Flacco (+2)
- QB53 - Athan Kaliakmanis (+2)