Well, we survived Week 1.
The fact is that there isn't a more difficult week for close calls in fantasy football than the first game of the season. Our justifications for selecting one player over another are almost entirely speculative—based either on information from a year ago or what we saw from NFL teams over the summer.
The problem is that a lot can change from one season to another—last year's treasure can easily become this year's trash. And with so many teams resting starters in the preseason, we don't see a lot of big names until Week 1—and it shows. The first couple of weeks of the regular season are essentially the preseason for many teams now—and the rust doesn't help the fantasy prospects of many early-on.
Given those realities, it's not especially surprising that the first week of Close Calls was a choppy one—two correct calls and three misses. Frankly, the only one this analyst really regrets is Devin Singletary of the New York Giants over Najee Harris of the Pittsburgh Steelers at running back.
Putting any faith in the Giants offense was just dumb.
Still, nothing to do but shake Week 1 off and move forward with another edition of Close Calls at Footballguys.
Every week we're going to look at some of the closest calls of the week. Make the case for both players. And then offer up this analyst's take on which player is the correct play.
For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top-10, running backs outside the top 20 and wide receivers outside the top-30 in Footballguys' Weekly Rankings. If you have San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey and Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson and can only start one, then—wait, what?
Now let's do this like an Arby's sandwich—five for five!
Close Call: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay (QB12) vs. Daniel Jones, NY Giants (QB13)
The Case for Mayfield: Raise your hand if you thought that Baker Mayfield of the Buccaneers would score the most fantasy points of any quarterback in the NFC in Week 1. Now put your danged hand down—Mayfield's own mother probably had him on the bench last week.
It's okay, Momma Mayfield—your secret is safe with us.
Mayfield doesn't draw Washington's woeful pass defense in Week 2, but Detroit wasn't great in that regard last year either—the league's 27th-ranked pass defense just gave up 317 passing yards to Matthew Stafford, and Mayfield threw for 349 yards and three scores in last year's postseason loss to the Lions.
The Case for Jones: Sigh—this is what my life has come to. Making a fantasy case for Daniel Jones after a horrific performance against the Minnesota Vikings in which his most accurate pass was right into the hands of Vikings edge-rusher Andrew Van Ginkel. There's no getting around it—Jones was terrible last week.
But if ever there was a pass defense that can make even Jones look good, it's the Washington Commanders. The Commanders were dead last in both total defense and pass defense last season, and if Mayfield's four-score effort against Washington in Week 1 is any indication, that secondary isn't measurably better in 2024.
The Verdict: Mayfield. Yes, the Commanders suck defensively. And Jones offers a measure of rushing upside that Mayfield doesn't have. But Mayfield has shown that he can light up the Lions, and that game has exponentially more shootout potential than Giants/Commanders.
Close Call: Brian Robinson Jr, Washington (RB22) vs. David Montgomery, Detroit (RB23)
The Case for Robinson: Robinson was actually pretty solid for fantasy managers in Washington's Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay—15 total touches for 89 yards and a touchdown. Perhaps even more importantly, even with the Commanders trailing for much of the game, Robinson had over twice as many touches as Austin Ekeler.
The New York Giants weren't good at much of anything last year—Big Blue blew against the run, surrendering the fourth-most yards per game on the ground. The Minnesota Vikings weren't great running the ball last week in New York, but they weren't terrible, either—111 yards and 4.3 yards per carry.
The Case for Montgomery: If Week 1 was any indication, then the Detroit backfield will be split just about right down the middle in 2024. In Sunday night's overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams, Jahmyr Gibbs had 15 touches, while Montgomery tallied 18. If it's not broke, don't fix it.
Montgomery didn't get going until later in the game—the game-winning drive in overtime was essentially Detroit cramming Monty down the Rams' throats. But when the dust settled, he had 93 total yards and a touchdown—numbers that were good for an RB18 fantasy finish.
The Verdict: Robinson. Montgomery faces a Tampa run defense that ranked fifth in the NFL last year, and the Buccaneers are especially stout up the middle. If Detroit has success running the ball in Week 2, it feels like a Gibbs week.
Close Call: DK Metcalf, Seattle (WR35) vs. Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona (WR37)
The Case for Metcalf: Metcalf's Week 1 was a quiet one—while Tyler Lockett paced the Seahawks in receptions, receiving yards and targets, Metcalf managed just three catches for 29 yards on four targets. But this is DK Metcalf we're talking about—all it takes is one long pass or a red-zone score to turn an OK outing into a big one.
The New England Patriots put the clamps on the Cincinnati Bengals last week, but it's hard to tell how much of that was the New England defense and how much was Cincinnati's offensive ineptitude. The Patriots were a neutral fantasy matchup for wideouts last season—17th in PPR points allowed to the position.
The Case for Harrison: Well, it didn't take long for the shine to come off Harrison—drafted as a top-12 wideout in most fantasy leagues this summer, Harrison's NFL debut was one of the most disappointing stat lines of Week 1—the former Ohio State standout was targeted just three times and caught one pass for four yards.
Still, there's a reason why Harrison was the first non-quarterback drafted in 2024. His talent is undeniable. One has to think that a focus in practice this week was getting Harrison the ball in Week 2. And last year at least, the Rams could be had through the air, allowing the ninth-most PPR points to wide receivers.
The Verdict: Harrison. This is admittedly a hunch as much as anything. The Cardinals didn't spend a top-five pick on Harrison so that Greg Dortch could lead the wide receiver corps, and the Rams secondary is a question mark. The kid announces his NFL arrival in Week 2.
Close Call: Courtland Sutton, Denver (WR43) vs. Diontae Johnson, Carolina (WR45)
The Case for Sutton: Bo Nix didn't exactly shine in his NFL debut, and Sutton's stat line didn't win anyone a matchup—he averaged just 9.5 yards per reception on his four grabs. But Sutton was far and away Nix's favorite target for the game (12 targets), and he is Denver's No. 1 receiver.
The Steelers played an excellent defensive game against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1, limiting Drake London to a measly two catches for 15 yards. But the back end is the weak link of that defense, and game script could easily have the Broncos playing from behind and throwing the ball with regularity in the second half.
The Case for Johnson: The Carolina Panthers likely took the game tape from last week's blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints, soaked it in lighter fluid and set it on fire. Johnson's Panthers debut wasn't any better than the team's overall outing—while he was second on the team with six targets, Johnson caught just two of those looks for 19 yards.
However, those six targets would appear to indicate that Panthers quarterback Bryce Young has some confidence in his new No. 1 wide receiver, and while the Chargers looked good defensively last week against the Raiders, they remain a tam that allowed the sixth-most PPR points to wide receivers last season.
The Verdict: Johnson, although if “none of the above” was an option it would merit serious consideration. As bad as Bryce Young looked last week for the Panthers, he still has a year of NFL experience under his belt. The Panthers also have a more favorable matchup with a Chargers secondary that was last in the AFC against the pass last season.
Close Call: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia (TE11) vs. Colby Parkinson, LA Rams (TE12)
The Case for Goedert: The Philadelphia offense looked like one of the league's best last week in Brazil, but Goedert didn't play an especially large role in the win. The veteran tight end was targeted five times, catching four of those targets for 31 yards.
Hey. They can't all be Isaiah Likely.
However, Goedert could be set up for bigger and better things in Week 2 against the Atlanta Falcons. Pat Freiermuth of the Pittsburgh Steelers quietly finished just outside the top-12 in fantasy points at the position last week in Atlanta, and the Falcons surrendered the sixth-most PPR points to tight ends last year.
The Case for Parkinson: The number of fantasy managers who expected Parkinson to post a sixth-place finish among tight ends last week numbers exactly zero. But Parkinson was a surprisingly big part of the Rams offense last week against the Lions, catching four of his five targets for 47 yards.
The Arizona Cardinals limited Dalton Kincaid of the Buffalo Bills to a single catch last week, and Arizona wasn't a great fantasy matchup for the tight end position in 2023. But the Redbirds have historically had all kinds of problems defending tight ends, and the Rams need other pass-catchers to step up with wide receiver Puka Nacua on injured reserve.
The Verdict: Goedert. It's tempting to roll the dice on Parkinson here, especially with Nacua sidelined. But Goedert is a more proven option on a better offense with a better matchup. Sometimes it's best not to overthink things.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter (Can't make him call it X) at @IDPSharks
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