Close Calls: Week 16's Toughest Lineup Decisions

This time of year, every call is a close call.

There are just four teams still playing in most fantasy leagues. And while luck has certainly played a part in their success in 2024, all of those teams are good. They are short on holes in the roster and long on consistent producers.

But those teams aren't perfect—at least most of the time. Maybe an injury has hit at the worst possible time. Maybe they have been streaming a roster spot for weeks. Whatever the reason, there are difficult decisions to be made. When a fantasy manager's opponent is every bit as good as them (if not better), even the easy decisions can become problematic.

Gotta milk every point possible from the roster. And Close Calls here at Footballguys is here to pull up a stool and grab an udder.

You're welcome for that mental picture.

Every week here at Footballguys, Close Calls will make a case for a pair of closely-ranked fantasy options—and then make the call on which player will be more productive.

For the sake of this exercise, we'll only consider quarterbacks and tight ends outside the top 10, running backs outside the top 20, and wide receivers outside the top 30 in the Footballguys Weekly Rankings.

Now let's make Week 16 a merry one. Ho Ho Ho and all that jazz.

Close Call: Caleb Williams, Chicago (QB16) vs. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami (QB19)

The Case for Williams: Williams' first season has been a disappointment compared to Washington's Jayden Daniels. But it's hardly unprecedented for rookie quarterbacks to struggle, especially when their coaching was suspect much of the year. Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman didn't exactly light up the NFL in their inaugural campaign—and they turned out OK.

The case for Williams likely hinges more on what he could potentially do against the Lions than what he's done to date this season. In their Thanksgiving Day loss in Detroit, Williams had a red-hot second half, finishing with 256 yards and three touchdowns on the way to the fourth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks that week.

The Case for Tagovailoa: As it happens, Tagovailoa was the No. 3 fantasy quarterback that week, throwing for 317 yards and four scores in a Thanksgiving night loss to the Green Bay Packers. Since returning from a stint in injured reserve, Tagovailoa ranks ninth among all signal-callers in fantasy points.

Yes, Tagovailoa is questionable with a hip injury, but he's expected to play. Yes, Tagovailoa was lousy last week in Houston. But he gets the 49ers in sunny South Florida, while Williams gets a rematch with the Lions at Soldier Field in the second half of December. That wind starts whipping in off the lake, and both offenses could bog down.

The Verdict: Williams. It's supposed to be chill Sunday in Chicago, but also dry and not overly windy. That and Tagovailoa's lousy Week 15 are enough to push Williams into the lead. He also has the more favorable fantasy matchup for quarterbacks.

Close Call: Jerome Ford, Cleveland (RB23) vs. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England (RB25)

The Case for Ford: Now that the Clowns have made the mind-boggling decision to play Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback on purpose, it's rather hard to make a case for any of their offensive players. Kevin Stefanski swooped in and Grinched us good—and there's no Cindy Lou Who riding to our rescue.

But the insertion of Thompson-Robinson may be a blessing in disguise for Ford. With Nick Chubb (sigh) done for the year with a broken foot, Ford should see no shortage of touches in a game where the Browns will lean on the run game as long as they can. There's also the matter of a Cincinnati Bengals defense that is, um, bad.

The Case for Stevenson: It has been another miserable season in New England. Stevenson hasn't been immune, either—he's averaging a career-low 3.8 yards per carry and will have to pick up his weekly pace to notch the second 1,000-yard rushing season of his four-year career.

But Stevenson has at least 14 touches in six of the past seven games. He has scored seven total touchdowns and hauled in 32 passes. And fantasy's RB26 for the season draws a Buffalo Bills team in Week 16 that has surrendered the most PPR points in the AFC to running backs this season.

The Verdict: Ford. From a fantasy perspective, the Bengals are a middling fantasy matchup for running backs, but Rico Dowdle just gashed Cincinnati's 29th-ranked defense. If the Bills get up big and the Patriots abandon the run, Stevenson could lose snaps to Antonio Gibson.