Contract Terms
Former Washington Commanders wide receiver Curtis Samuel is signing a three-year, $24 million deal worth up to $30 million, including $15 million guaranteed, with the Buffalo Bills, a source told ESPN's Adam Schefter on Thursday.
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Fantasy Football Impact
According to ESPN.com's Alaina Getzenberg, Samuel is a logical addition to the Bills' wide receiver room with Stefon Diggs after Gabe Davis departed for the Jacksonville Jaguars in free agency. Buffalo is familiar with what Samuel is capable of, as general manager Brandon Beane was part of the Carolina Panthers front office that drafted him in 2017, and offensive coordinator Joe Brady coached Samuel during the 2020 season in Carolina.
Samuel will provide the Bills' offense with a player who can contribute in various ways, such as running routes from multiple spots on the field and potentially being used as a rusher. Under Brady, he had a career-high 41 rushes for 200 yards and two touchdowns. He is not the deep downfield threat that Davis brought to the offense, but he adds a skill set that is not currently on the Bills' roster as the room rebuilds this offseason and the team continues its trend of investing around quarterback Josh Allen.
The versatile Samuel has proved to be a threat as both a receiver and a rusher over his career, gaining 4,098 yards on 317 receptions and 121 carries with 29 touchdowns in seven seasons with the Commanders and Panthers. As a receiver, Samuel has done most of his damage underneath, averaging 10.7 yards per catch in his career. He caught 62 passes for 613 yards and four touchdowns last season, his third with the Commanders.
Samuel, who has rushed for a touchdown in the past two seasons, has proved his versatility as a ball carrier, owing to his days as an Ohio State running back. In addition to that 2020 performance with Carolina, in 2022 with Washington, he gained 187 yards on 38 carries.
One thing Samuel brings that Buffalo has lacked is explosiveness.
According to Next Gen Stats, Samuel averaged 9.08 mph within the first second of his routes in 2023, the third-quickest in the NFL (with a minimum of 300 routes). Meanwhile, Bills wide receivers averaged a 7.95 mph burst last season, good for 29th in the NFL (Davis: 8.25 mph; Diggs: 7.73 mph).
Given all that, what should we expect in Buffalo this year? As noted above, Samuel ran the ball effectively with Brady as his play-caller. But Footballguy Jeff Bell reminded his X followers that Samuel also caught 77 of 97 targets for 851 yards that season. There's reason for some optimism.
But those expecting Samuel to move into the No. 2 role opposite Diggs might be disappointed. Bell contends Mack Hollins, who signed with the team Wednesday, "is Davis lite," with Samuel more likely in the Isaiah McKenzie/Deontae Harty role.
For now, assume Samuel remains in "free-square" territory in best-ball drafts -- he's currently going as WR75 on Underdog and WR74 on BestBall 10s. The Round 20 Average Draft Position (ADP) leaves ample room for upside.
The Fantasy Football Fallout
Despite Samuel's past success under Brady, he's unlikely to cut into Diggs' workload. Fortunately, coming off a poor stretch run last season, Diggs is a value going off as WR14-15 in early best-ball drafts. That's slightly off his Footballguys 2024 Draft Ranking of WR10, which seems a little more on point than his current ADP.
Khalil Shakir is likely to take a hit, at least in terms of fantasy value. As Underdog's Hayden Winks pointed out on X, neither Samuel nor Shakir see much time in two-receiver sets. In fact, the duo combined to run just eight routes when lined up in 2-WR formations (Samuel ran six; Shakir had two).
Beyond suggesting the team will be looking to land a WR2 in April's NFL Draft, tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox will likely continue to play significant roles. Their value should remain unchanged. The same goes for Josh Allen, who remains our QB1.
Could Samuel's skills as a runner be an issue for James Cook? It's possible, but not enough to move him out of his current RB15 ranking.
With open questions across the board in Washington with a new coaching staff and an undetermined quarterback, values there will remain unchanged.
Stock Watch
Risers
Fallers
Overview
Wide receiver Curtis Samuel has agreed to a three-year, $30 million contract with the Buffalo Bills. While he's not expected to handle a front-line role in Buffalo, his past work with current Bills coordinator Joe Brady (in Carolina) suggests Samuel will offer some upside as a late-round pick in fantasy drafts.
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