Whether you're a veteran or a newcomer, the mission is to find the best value plays, identify favorable matchups, and build a winning lineup. In this early-week breakdown, we’ll kickstart your DFS prep with a high-level overview of the Week 7 Main Slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.
We’ll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, much of your research should be dedicated to determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust more than the others. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds.
Matchup Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 7.
Note: The Sunday night Jets-Steelers game is on the FanDuel Main Slate but is not included on the DraftKings Main Slate.
Upper Left: The teams in this quadrant are underdogs but still expected to score more than the average team on the slate, making them prime candidates for potential shootouts. This quadrant is emptier than normal in Week 7.
The most likely shootout spot on the slate is Seattle at Atlanta. The game opened with a 49.5-point total and quickly jumped to 51.5. The Falcons have played in back-to-back high-scoring games. The key pieces of the Falcons offense (especially Drake London and Darnell Mooney) continue to be underpriced. On the Seahawks side, Ken Walker III projects as the best running back PPD play on FanDuel and second-best at DraftKings.
The Lions-Vikings game projects to be high-scoring. However, it remains to be seen if the top options on either side will be popular tournament options. Despite the high total, both teams are projected to score below their season-to-date averages.
Upper Right: These are the teams favored to win and expected to score above-average points. Both in cash games and GPPs, we should focus heavily on this quadrant. Given the likelihood of positive game scripts, this is a great area to target running backs.
The Commanders will be incredibly popular this week as 7.5-point home favorites over the Panthers. Jayden Daniels may be chalky despite a hefty price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Brian Robinson Jr’s health will be one of the key pieces of news to track throughout the week. He was out in Week 6 with a knee injury. Expect Austin Ekeler to be extremely popular should Robinson be out again. Ekeler handled 88% of the running back opportunities and played 75% of the snaps last week.
The Bills are 9.5-point home favorites against the Titans. This is another spot where we want to watch the injury news. James Cook should be back after missing Week 6. However, if he is not, Ray Davis would likely emerge as the most popular play on the entire slate.
The total in the Bengals-Browns game opened at 44.5 and has already dropped to 41.5. Of the 3.0 points of implied totals lost, 2.5 of them were on the Browns side.
Bottom Right: These are teams favored but expected to score below-average points. Typically, we’d target running backs from these teams, as positive game scripts are expected. However, due to the low projected point totals, it’s best to be cautious with their passing games.
Only the Jets appear in this quadrant this week. However, it is hard to trust Breece Hall given the difficult matchup and presence of Braelon Allen.
Bottom Left: This is the quadrant where we need to be cautious. These teams are underdogs and expected to score fewer points, so we should only roster players we feel extremely confident about.