Week 18 is the hardest DFS slate of the season, and that is exactly why it creates opportunity. The edge this week does not come from projections alone. It comes from understanding motivation. With the playoffs starting next week, many teams have little incentive to push their best players, while others still have seeding, byes, or even division titles at stake. If you are willing to put in the extra work, track late-week news, and think through how teams are likely to approach these games, Week 18 can be one of the most profitable slates of the year.
What makes this week especially tricky is that motivation is not static. It can change right up until kickoff and even during the games themselves based on scoreboard watching. The Rams are the clearest example. If San Francisco beats Seattle on Saturday night, Los Angeles will be locked into its seed with nothing to gain on Sunday. If Seattle wins, the Rams suddenly have a strong incentive to push for the five seed and a much softer first-round matchup. New England finds itself in a similar spot, where its urgency could hinge on how the Broncos-Chargers game unfolds in the same time window. These sliding incentives are why late news and contextual thinking matter more this week than at any other point in the season.
At the same time, we are dealing with a large group of teams already eliminated from playoff contention. Some will clearly be playing out the string, while others are more motivated to finish strong, evaluate young players, or build momentum heading into the offseason. Two of the highest-total games on the slate involve Giants-Cowboys and Bears-Lions, yet only one of those four teams truly has something tangible on the line. Trying to read between the lines to determine which eliminated teams still care and which do not is critical. We will touch on all of these factors and go position-by-position highlighting some of the best plays on the slate in this week's FanDuel GPP Guide.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
My favorite way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest matchups, where teams are expected to score below their 2025 average.
It also helps to combine this number with my adjusted defense-versus-position numbers. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but the Seahawks allow the Rams to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation for that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 18 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is one of the few teams we can fully trust to be highly motivated, as the Jaguars need a win to clinch the division over Houston. The 13 percent scoring boost and slate-high 30.5-point team total stand out, making them one of the safest teams to target this week. While Tennessee’s run defense has improved significantly over the back half of the season, the pass defense has begun to fade. The Titans surrendered more than 333 passing yards and two touchdowns to Tyler Shough last week and allowed 364 yards with four total touchdowns to Shedeur Sanders earlier this month. This sets up as another strong spot for Trevor Lawrence to stay hot in a must-win game.
Atlanta
Neither the Falcons nor the Saints has anything tangible to play for in the standings, but this game still carries real motivation on both sides. Atlanta has a 15 percent scoring boost, which is modest in a vacuum but still tops on a slate projected to be very low-scoring overall. The Falcons traded away their 2026 first-round pick in anticipation of a playoff push that never materialized, making it important to ensure the pick comes as late as possible. Head coach Raheem Morris may also be coaching for his job, which adds urgency. Atlanta has played better in recent weeks, and ending the season with a win over a division rival would go a long way toward salvaging some positive momentum.
New Orleans
Few franchises have given their fan base more reason for optimism over the past month than the Saints. Tyler Shough has not only earned the starting quarterback job heading into 2026, but has also provided a real spark for an offense that looked lost earlier in the season. With Chris Olave injured, Shough will be throwing primarily to Juwan Johnson, who profiles as a top tight end option, along with a group of backup wide receivers led by Kevin Austin Jr.
New York Giants
On paper, neither the Giants nor the Cowboys has anything to play for, and New York would benefit from a loss in terms of draft position. Still, this feels like a rivalry game where both teams may try to put their best foot forward. Jaxson Dart’s comments this week suggest he is highly motivated to finish the season on a strong note. The first meeting between these teams turned into a 40-37 shootout, and the Giants are coming off a blowout win over the Raiders, with Dart adding two more rushing touchdowns. He has a great chance to close out his rookie season on a high note against a Dallas defense allowing 7.0 fantasy points per game above expectation to opposing quarterbacks. The Cowboys have also struggled against running backs and wide receivers, making this a strong spot for Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Darius Slayton as well.
ROADBLOCK
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 18 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Dallas
While the Cowboys have nothing to play for in the standings, putting up a strong offensive performance and beating a division rival would be a good way to build momentum heading into the offseason. Dak Prescott is the wild card here. If we knew he would play the entire game, he would be one of the best quarterback options on the slate, but it appears likely he gives way to Joe Milton III at some point. Given that uncertainty, the cleaner way to access Dallas’ solid 26.5-point team total is through Jaydon Blue, who is expected to start at running back with both Javonte Williams and Malik Davis already ruled out.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams carry a healthy 27.5-point team total against a Cardinals defense that has surrendered at least 37 points in three of its last four games. Motivation is the key variable to monitor, especially with the Saturday night matchup between Seattle and San Francisco looming large. A Seattle win would put the fifth seed and a favorable first-round matchup against the NFC South champion on the line for Los Angeles in Week 18, which would give the Rams every reason to push the issue offensively.
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence
I am looking for a quarterback who is motivated, playing in a great matchup, and talented enough to fully take advantage of it. Despite a massive 13-game Week 18 main slate, very few quarterbacks check all three boxes, and none does so more clearly than Lawrence. That combination is why his popularity is justified. He has been on a fantasy tear down the stretch, throwing eight touchdown passes and adding four more scores on the ground over the past three weeks. Jacksonville needs a win to lock up the division and is a heavy favorite against a Titans defense that has been repeatedly shredded through the air. Tennessee has allowed 333 passing yards and two touchdowns to Tyler Shough last week, 295 yards and three touchdowns to Brock Purdy in Week 15, and 364 yards with four total touchdowns to Shedeur Sanders in Week 14. Despite what the season-long numbers suggest, this is not an appealing matchup to lean on the running game, which should force Jacksonville to rely heavily on Lawrence’s arm in a must-win spot.
Caleb Williams
Even with Philadelphia resting key starters, the Eagles are still favored by 4.5 points over Washington, which highlights the pressure on Chicago to handle its business. The Bears likely need a win to secure the two seed, an outcome that carries real importance with the Rams or 49ers looming as potential first-round opponents if they slip to the third seed. Williams has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four straight games and is coming off a season-high 330-yard performance last week. With Ben Johnson calling plays and a chance for payback after getting embarrassed 52-21 in Detroit earlier this season, the Bears should be motivated to stay aggressive, setting Williams up for another strong fantasy outing.
Bo Nix
The defense-versus-position numbers here need to be taken with a grain of salt, as the Chargers appear likely to rest key starters in a matchup they have effectively conceded. We saw a nearly identical situation last season when the Chiefs rested starters against Denver in Week 18, and Nix responded by throwing for 321 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-0 blowout. That game showed we do not need a tight, back-and-forth script for Nix to deliver a tournament-winning outcome. If Los Angeles waves the white flag early again, Nix has more than enough upside to get there in GPPs.
Jaxson Dart
Dart’s rushing upside is as high as any quarterback on the slate, with nine rushing touchdowns in 11 starts this season, and that alone keeps him firmly in the GPP pool every week. That rushing equity becomes even more valuable in Week 18, when high-ceiling quarterbacks are in short supply. Dart has also been vocal this week about wanting to finish the season on a strong note to carry momentum into the offseason. On the other side, Dallas may only play its starters for a half and could rest banged-up defensive pieces, further softening the matchup. The Giants threw for 450 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys earlier this season, showing the pass defense can be exploited even when healthy and motivated.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson
Few players in the league have been hotter than Robinson, who has posted at least 168 total yards in three straight games. He now sits at 2,255 yards from scrimmage on the season, already the 16th-highest total in NFL history, and needs just 137 more yards to crack the top three all-time. Over his past three games, Robinson has averaged 19.0 carries and an eye-popping 10.0 targets per game, a workload that almost guarantees massive production given his career efficiency of 4.9 yards per carry and 6.7 yards per target. He just shredded an excellent Rams defense for 195 rushing yards last week, so while the Saints defense has been playing well, it is not enough to scare us off Robinson in a spot where he is clearly being featured as the engine of the offense.
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Tracy has played just under 70 percent of the snaps over the past three weeks and has averaged 15.0 carries and 2.7 targets per game during that span. He draws a strong matchup against a Cowboys defense that has struggled against opposing running backs whenever Quinnen Williams has been out, making Williams’ status worth monitoring with little incentive for Dallas to rush him back in a meaningless game. The Cowboys just allowed 105 yards and two touchdowns to Jacory Croskey-Merritt last week and appear to be playing out the string after being eliminated from playoff contention. There has also been some indication that Dallas could pull starters early, which only boosts Tracy’s appeal. The absence of Wan'Dale Robinson could also funnel a few additional targets Tracy’s way in the passing game.
Jaydon Blue
Blue is a high-risk option with Phil Mafah trending toward playing, which creates the possibility of an ugly backfield split. Even so, it is impossible to ignore Blue’s explosiveness in an elite matchup against a Giants defense that has been one of the worst in the league. At just $4,500, he provides an easy path to paying up for premium options like Bijan Robinson and Puka Nacua, both of whom carry realistic 30-point upside this week. In tournaments, that combination of salary relief and big-play ability keeps Blue firmly in play despite the volatility.
RJ Harvey
Most roster constructions are likely to lean into a stars-and-scrubs approach at running back, with players like Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ray Davis, and Jaydon Blue soaking up ownership. That dynamic could push mid-tier options like Harvey largely out of the conversation. He has legitimate GPP-winning upside in a game with severely mismatched incentives. The Chargers are banged up, have nothing to play for in terms of seeding, and will be starting a backup quarterback, with Jim Harbaugh noting that other players dealing with “the most bruises” will also sit. Denver, on the other hand, needs a win to secure the first-round bye and can rest key contributors next week. With the Broncos favored by 13.5 points, this game could be a blowout. Harvey has averaged 14.0 carries and 4.4 targets per game over his last five outings, and as an inexperienced rookie, he stands to benefit from early-game reps. That profile also gives him a strong chance to remain involved even if Denver builds a multi-score lead. Given the stakes, it would not be surprising to see the Broncos keep their foot on the gas late in the game to secure the win. As noted above, the Broncos poured it on the Chiefs 38-0 in a similar spot in Week 18 last season.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Like Harvey, Stevenson profiles as a mid-tier running back who could slip through the cracks. New England is a heavy favorite and should be highly motivated to take care of business against a division rival while locking up the second seed in the AFC. Stevenson thrived in a similar game script last week against the Jets, piling up 102 total yards and two touchdowns. At an affordable salary and with very low projected ownership, he makes for a strong tournament pivot away from the chalky value backs such as Davis and Blue.
Wide Receiver
Puka Nacua
Sean McVay has been clear that the Rams plan to play their starters in Week 18, and that stance becomes even more believable if Seattle beats San Francisco tonight. In that scenario, a Rams win would lock up the fifth seed and a playoff matchup with the NFC South champion. Nacua has been on an absurd run, averaging 155 receiving yards per game over his last four contests, a stretch that began with a 167-yard, two-touchdown eruption against Arizona in Week 14. The Cardinals' defense has been gutted by injuries and should offer little resistance to a Rams offense that is firing on all cylinders. With salary relief easy to find thanks to multiple low-priced backups stepping into meaningful roles, Nacua is as easy to fit into lineups as he has been all season.
Michael Wilson
Wilson has quietly been one of the most productive wide receivers in football over the past seven games, posting 51 catches for 676 yards and five touchdowns. Over that stretch, he sits just 0.1 FanDuel points behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the WR2. He has outscored Ja’Marr Chase, George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and several other higher-profile options on this slate. Arizona’s defense has been ravaged by injuries and struggled even when healthy, which makes it likely the Rams jump out early and force the Cardinals into another pass-heavy, aggressive game script. That environment continues to funnel volume and upside Wilson’s way.
Luther Burden III
Burden broke out in a big way last week against San Francisco, hauling in eight catches for 138 yards and a touchdown. Chicago appears to have finally found its offensive centerpiece, as Burden consistently creates separation and is dangerous after the catch, traits that fit perfectly in Ben Johnson’s offense. Detroit is allowing 5.2 fantasy points per game above expectation to opposing wide receivers and has been especially vulnerable down the stretch due to injuries in the secondary. With the second seed and a favorable matchup against a banged-up Packers team still in play, motivation should not be an issue for the Bears in a game that carries real shootout potential.
Darius Slayton
The Cowboys are giving up a massive 9.3 fantasy points per game above expectation to opposing wide receivers, and the Giants feel like one of the teams most motivated to end the season on a positive note with a win over a division rival. This is an excellent spot for New York’s passing game, especially with Wan'Dale Robinson out and tight end Theo Johnson also sidelined. That leaves Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, and Gunner Olszewski as the last men standing. I am willing to take a chance on Slayton, who is making $12 million this season and is effectively locked into a $12.3 million salary for next year with nearly $10 million of his 2026 money fully guaranteed. His contract situation is likely to become a talking point this offseason if Robinson proves too expensive to retain, and helping Slayton close the year on a high note may quietly matter. Slayton has struggled with drops and confidence at times this season, but he is almost certainly penciled in as a top-three wide receiver for the Giants again next year. Given the matchup and the lack of alternatives, New York has little choice but to funnel targets his way. You can make a case for any of the three receivers in this spot, but Slayton stands out as the one with the most straightforward path to volume and upside.
Pat Bryant
I am trying to have my cake and eat it too in some of these games that carry blowout risk, targeting players who will be involved with the starters in a standard game script but are also likely to stay on the field if things get out of hand. Bryant fits that mold nicely. He played 64 percent of the snaps last week and saw eight targets, continuing to establish himself as one of Bo Nix’s preferred options. At the same time, Bryant is still a relatively inexperienced rookie who benefits from every additional snap he can get. Unlike Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, and some of the other established pass catchers, he is not a player who is likely to be parked on the sideline if the Broncos are up 20 points in the fourth quarter. That combination gives Bryant sneaky appeal as a tournament option who can pay off in multiple game-flow scenarios.
Tight End
Trey McBride
McBride has clearly separated himself from the rest of the tight end position this season, scoring 10 touchdowns in 11 games with Jacoby Brissett under center. He is projected for 4.21 more fantasy points than the TE2 on this slate, a gap that matters even more on a week filled with low-priced backups stepping into starter-level snaps. Those dynamics make stars-and-scrubs roster builds especially appealing, and McBride stands out as one of the strongest pay-up options available.
Juwan Johnson
With Chris Olave out for the finale, Johnson is essentially the last man standing in the Saints offense. Olave, Alvin Kamara, Mason Tipton, Devin Neal, and Kendre Miller are all injured, Rashid Shaheed was traded, and Brandin Cooks was cut. Johnson is the only skill-position player who was expected to be a meaningful contributor this season still active. Despite all of that, rookie quarterback Tyler Shough has thrown for 641 yards over the past two weeks. Johnson is a strong bet to see double-digit targets at a bargain salary, making him one of the safest low-cost plays on the slate. He owns the second-highest tight end projection in the Footballguys consensus despite being priced just 12th at the position.
Travis Kelce
All signs point to this being the final game of Kelce’s NFL career, even if it unfortunately comes with Chris Oladokun rather than Patrick Mahomes II at quarterback. This is a spot where the narrative angle is hard to ignore. It would not be surprising if Andy Reid makes an effort to send his future Hall of Famer out on a high note with a touchdown and solid target volume. Kansas City’s offense is thin, the team has nothing to play for, and leaning into Kelce is one of the easiest ways to structure the game plan. The matchup also helps, as the Raiders are clearly prioritizing draft position over winning.
Terrance Ferguson
Ferguson is intriguing because he profiles as one of the few Rams skill players who could remain involved regardless of how the game unfolds. He should see snaps with the starters early and could continue to play if the Rams decide to pull key pieces later. The talented rookie, selected by the Rams in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, has played more than 60 percent of the snaps in four straight games and has scored touchdowns in each of the last two. His usage has steadily increased over the course of the season, and he has become a legitimate chess piece in an offense that frequently deploys multiple tight ends. At $4,900 and virtually unrostered, Ferguson is a reasonable dart throw with a real chance to extend his touchdown streak to three games.