NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.
This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.
Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.
Game Theory
The Steelers are modest -2.5 home favorites in an injury-ravaged game, essentially a dead heat when we de-factor homefield. Vegas suggests only 43.5 points, but that’s come up from an opening 41.5. In other words: Vegas doesn’t seem to know what to expect tonight. The Cowboys could faceplant again with most of their defensive juice sidelined, while the bottom could theoretically fall out on Justin Fields any minute now.
With such a wild-card matchup on tap, it makes sense to target the usual suspects – CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, the quarterbacks – but to find ways to get unique. Lamb is so ball-dominant that he’ll be rostered just about everywhere, so factor that in. Conversely, many will ignore low-upside names like Jake Ferguson and Pat Freiermuth in their Captain slots, but either could catch a pair of touchdowns and drive a Showdown.
Injury Report
Dallas has been hit by injuries on both sides of the ball. Default No. 2 wideout Brandin Cooks is on injured reserve, which should streamline the team’s targets for the next few weeks. On defense, virtually the entire pass rush (Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence) is unavailable, and top cornerback Trevon Diggs is questionable tonight.
The Pittsburgh backfield is decimated by injuries: neither Jaylen Warren nor Cordarrelle Patterson will suit up tonight. That should set up Najee Harris (and Justin Fields) with a massive workload, regardless of game flow.
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