Dynasty, in Theory: How To Find Gems on Waivers

There's a lot of strong dynasty analysis out there, especially when compared to five or ten years ago. But most of it is so dang practical-- Player X is undervalued, Player Y's workload is troubling, the market at this position is irrational, and take this specific action to win your league. Dynasty, in Theory is meant as a corrective, offering insights and takeaways into the strategic and structural nature of the game that might not lead to an immediate benefit but which should help us become better players over time.

Free Agents (Mostly) Don't Matter.

Fellow Footballguy Sigmund Bloom likes to compare the three primary paths for a manager to acquire players to a three-legged stool: teams are built through the draft, trades, and free agency. If it is a stool, then it is a lopsided one; one of those legs contributes considerably less talent and production than the other two. Let's illustrate.

Every league is different, but in my oldest dynasty league, I record the first and last lineup I submit every season. The league started in 2007, giving me 17 and a half seasons worth of lineups. Each lineup consists of seven players (a quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, and a tight end), which means I've recorded 245 player-starts. 

Would you care to guess how many of those starts went to a player I had gotten off of waivers or first-come, first-serve free agency? (Feel free to take a moment to pause and consider.)

The answer is 11, or less than 4.5% of all starts. Adam Thielen appeared in three of my recorded lineups, and then Brandon Weeden, Chad Henne, Denard Robinson, Gabriel Davis, Mike Sims-Walker, Ty Montgomery II, and Clive Walford appeared one time each (mostly as short-term injury replacements).

Perhaps I'm not very good at playing the waiver wire? Actually, I'm one of the league leaders in value added through free agency-- in addition to Thielen, I acquired Austin Ekeler off the street (though he didn't start for me often before I traded him for a first-round draft pick.) I've also added a handful of solid depth players-- Chase Brown, Dalton Schultz, Cole Kmet, etc.

My league is on the deeper side, though not especially so (there are currently 278 skill players rostered). You can look at your own league's history and I feel confident that unless you're in an especially shallow league, it won't differ significantly. Dynasty managers are just much sharper than they were a decade ago, and it's rare for a true difference-maker to slip past all of them and make it to the street.

But while production is rare from free agency, it's also free-- so it behooves us to continue to pan for gold. With that in mind, I wanted to look at past waiver-wire darlings to point out certain archetypes that have historically been slightly less unlikely to hit.

Yesterday's Waiver Wire Gems

I'll be using current player trade values on FantasyCalc as a starting point. These values are calculated based on actual dynasty trades, so they give a fair representation of current market value. Among the current top 100 overall players, I will highlight the names who were potentially available in free agency. (To estimate this, I'll look at players who fell outside of the Top 200 picks in startup drafts at some point, according to DynastyLeagueFootball.com's historical ADP.)

Quarterback:

• Jalen Hurts (QB4, 25th overall)
• Jordan Love (QB8, 45th overall)
• Brock Purdy (QB11, 64th overall)
• Baker Mayfield (QB15, 88th overall)

Running Back:

• Kyren Williams (RB7, 21st overall)
• Isiah Pacheco (RB13, 47th overall)
• Chase Brown (RB17, 54th overall)
• Chuba Hubbard (RB20, 67th overall)
• James Conner (RB22, 75th overall)

Wide Receiver:

• Puka Nacua (WR9, 15th overall)
• Tyreek Hill (WR16, 36th overall)
• Darnell Mooney (WR39, 98th overall)

Tight End:

• George Kittle (TE5, 57th overall)
• Cade Otton (TE9, 97th overall)

Note that only 14 of the current Top 100 players have ever fallen outside of the Top 200 picks in startup drafts, on average. That's 14% (#MentalMath). This means that 86% of players were drafted and rostered continuously. Again, finding value in free agency is rare. But in my experience, two archetypes tend to hit at a slightly better rate.

Archetype #1: Backup Quarterbacks

Especially highly drafted backup quarterbacks. I find that highly drafted quarterbacks always tend to be a bit undervalued-- I've made a ton of profit over the years drafting players like Jayden Daniels, C.J. Stroud, Patrick Mahomes II, Deshaun Watson, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, et al. in the 2nd round of rookie drafts (typically on teams that already had several strong quarterback options).